网络公共事件的演化机理及社会协同治理

网络公共事件有潜在-萌芽、发生-蔓延、深入-变化和消退-终结四个阶段,四个阶段中的目标、主题、舆论以及主体行为皆不同。以社会协同治理机制应对网络公共事件,首先,确立社会协同治理是一自组织的过程理念;其次,从协同意识、协同目标、组织机构和法律法规等方面创造社会协同治理条件;最后,构建利益协调、信息协同、舆情预警、协同机会识别和联动处理等机制,实现对网络公共事件的协同治理。     

A combined control scheme for monitoring the frequency and size of an attribute event

A traffic accident can be considered as an example of the attribute events, and the number of the injured in each accident is called the event size. Some control charts have been developed for monitoring either the time interval (T) between the occurrences of an event or the event size (C) in each occurrence. This article studies the statistical monitoring of the attribute events in which T and C are monitored simultaneously and C is an integer. Essentially, it integrates a T chart and a C chart, and is therefore referred to as a T&C scheme. Our studies show that the new chart is more effective than an individual T chart or C chart for detecting the out-of-control status of the event, in particular for detecting downward shifts (sparse occurrence and/or small size). Another desirable feature of the T&C scheme is that its detection effectiveness is more invariable against different types of shifts (i.e. T shift, C shift and joint shift in T&C) compared with an individual T or C chart. The improvement in performance is achieved due to the simultaneous monitoring of T and C. The T&C scheme can be applied in manufacturing systems and especially in non-manufacturing sectors (e.g. supply chain management, health care industry, disaster management and security control).     

从受众知情权角度看突发事件及其新闻报道策略

现代社会转型期各类突发事件频发,从受众知情权的角度梳理我国突发事件新闻报道的典型个案,可看出突发事件的新闻报道策略直接影响到受众知情权的实现。为保障受众知情权的充分实现,新闻媒体应研究突发事件并对其采取相应的新闻报道策略：严格界定受众知情权的范围并据此报道;根据突发事件潜伏、爆发、扩散、消退四阶段中新闻媒体的不同作用而作针对性报道;细分受众群并进行各取所需的报道;提高报道速度和拓展报道深度。     

海峡两岸突发性公共危机管理的传播比较

通过研究近几年发生在海峡两岸的突发性公共危机事件,对大陆与台湾的传播管理进行比较,认为二者存在着行政管理者的惯性思维和传播效率不高的共同弊端;对体制、功能、内容及非政府民间组织网媒等方面差异进行分析,并从救灾现场报道、行政管理者的角色区别、负面报道等比较其差异,期望海峡两岸在突发性公共危机中能携手共度难关。     

论电视新闻的变革对中国政治改革的启示——以《新闻联播》为例

为挽救“收视率”危机,《新闻联播》在人才选拔、尊重规律与评估体系三方面进行了深刻的变革。同时,中国政府近年来也面临着“信任度”降低的困境,为此政府进行了多次政治改革。由于政府提升“信任度”与《新闻联播》提高“收视率”存在着目标的一致性,因此,从组织行为学的视角,采用比较的研究方法,对政府所进行的政治改革与《新闻联播》的变革之间的关系进行了细致剖析,认为《新闻联播》在提高收视率的渐进过程中所采取的变革措施可以为中国政府提高“信任度”而进行的政治改革提供理论与实践的依据。     

镜像迷恋与纪实寻求——论新生代导演的两类文本

发轫于20世纪90年代初的新生代导演的创作走到21世纪的今天,渐渐凸现出两种风格、两类文本,这就是音乐情绪片和纪实片.情绪化的影片人物,"碎片"式生活幻影,拼盘式的镜像语言,MTV式的镜头快接方式,摄影镜头的激情晃甩,大段大段摇滚音乐演唱……充盈的"音乐情绪"弥漫在新生代早期的创作之中,颇具叛逆精神的摇滚乐似乎成为初期新生代群体作品的一致商标.这种音乐情绪依旧投射在进入21世纪的新生代作品中.而关注中国底层社会人生"当下处境"的纪实电影却成为21世纪新生代创作的主潮,成为新生代作品另一类文本.     

Work, pregnancy, and distress

Increasing numbers of pregnant women are working throughout much, if not all, of their pregnancies. In this secondary analysis of existing longitudinal data on family health, pregnant women were grouped according to employment status: 126 homemakers, 70 employed part-time, and 135 employed full-time. There were no significant differences between the groups in measures of distress, including depression, trait and state anxiety, and perception of negative life events. Homemakers were significantly younger, less educated, and had lower family incomes than either group of employed women. There was also a non-significant trend towards higher distress scores among homemakers. Overall, among these women, it was the similarities which were more striking than the differences, which supports recent research findings about distress among pregnant women.     

On the Analysis of Quasi-Life Tables

Baxter (1994) defined a quasi-life table in which the data arise from many concurrent, independent, discrete-time renewal processes. The processes are not observed individually, only the total numbers of renewals at each time point are observed. The estimates proposed by Baxter (1994), based on the discrete-time renewal equation, are studied more formally here, and some extensions are made.     

Omnibus Tests of The Martingale Assumption in The Analysisof Recurrent Failure Time Data

The Andersen-Gill multiplicative intensity(MI) model is well-suited to the analysis of recurrent failuretime data. The fundamental assumption of the MI model is thatthe process M_i(t) for subjects i=1,,n,defined to be the difference between a subject's counting processand compensator, i.e., N_i(t) A_i(t); >0,is a martingale with respect to some filtration. We propose omnibusprocedures for testing this assumption. The methods are basedon transformations of the estimated martingale residual process ^M _i (t) a function of consistent estimatesof the log-intensity ratios and the baseline cumulative hazard.Under a correctly specified model, the expected value of ^M _i (t)is approximately equal to zero with approximately uncorrelatedincrements. These properties are exploited in the proposed testingprocedures. We examine the effects of censoring and covariateeffects on the operating characteristics of the proposed methodsvia simulation. The procedures are most sensitive to the omissionof a time-varying continuous covariate. We illustrate use ofthe methods in an analysis of data from a clinical trial involvingpatients with chronic granulatomous disease.     

附加噪声长记忆过程的半参数估计方法研究

附加噪声长记忆过程的参数估计在实证研究中一直受到回避.本文通过聚合算子对样本数据进行降噪处理,研究了局部Whittle(LW)估计和对数周期图(LP)回归两种半参数估计方法.结果表明LW估计方法相比LP回归,解决了半参数方法的参数选取问题,且能够完全忽略噪声数据的影响而得到一致的估计.将LW估计应用于中国股市,发现重大突发事件发生时的长记忆性表现得最为强烈,且事件后比事件前要强烈.