Concretizing the concept of social stress

The concept of social stress, as adapted from Selye's work on biology, is insufficient to explain psychological functioning. To be useful, social stress must include enduring social practices characteristic of particular social systems that violate socially generated as well as biological needs. Some of these stressful events are gender role, poverty, and societal practices such as extreme competition, individualism, and materialism.     

陈云在伟大历史转折关头的杰出贡献(1976-1982)

在1976年到1982年这一党的伟大历史转折关头,陈云与邓小平一道,相互支持、密切配合,以高度的政治责任感和历史使命感,大力提倡解放思想,实事求是,冲破"两个凡是"的禁锢;积极推动拨乱反正,平反冤假错案;正确评价毛泽东的历史地位,坚持毛泽东思想的指导;力主国民经济调整,推动经济体制改革;大力呼吁发扬党内民主,健全民主集中制,严格党风党纪;高度重视干部队伍和领导班子建设,参与制定干部队伍革命化、年轻化、知识化、专业化的方针.为解决许多历史遗留问题和经济社会发展面临的新问题,开创我国社会主义事业发展的新时期,发挥了中流砥柱、举足轻重的关键性作用,为实现党的伟大历史转折做出了杰出贡献.     

试论邓小平的忧患意识

忧患意识是中华民族爱国主义精神的重要内容。作为第一代中央领导集体的重要成员和第二代中央领导集体的核心,邓小平表现出了对国家前途和民族命运的强烈忧患意识。在邓小平的政治生涯中,他有“三起三落”的经历,特别是他第三次复出之后,面对中国的落后和西方发达国家在经济、科技等方面的先进发达,其忧患意识表现得更为强烈。他的忧患意识是对关系国家、民族前途和命运的重大问题深切忧虑的理性认识。继承和发扬他的忧患意识,具有重大的理论意义和实践意义。     

我国政府应对网络群体事件的问题及对策研究

随着互联网的普及和社会矛盾的日益激化,网络群体事件发生的频率逐年递增,威胁着当前社会的稳定,对社会的管理及发展也造成不良影响。如何趋利避害,引导网络群体事件向有利方向发展,控制其不利影响,已经成为政府需要着力解决的重点问题。目前我国政府应对网络群体事件还存在着多种问题,如危机意识淡薄、法制不健全、系统的网络群体事件应对机制尚未建立等。培养政府官员危机意识、健全法制、构建系统的网络群体事件应对体系将是我国政府防范和化解网络群体事件的工作重心。     

北京高校甲组田径优势运动项目分析

通过对北京市入选综合排名前8名学校的优势项目进行统计分析,可以得出以下结论:第一集团学校的优势项目群配置合理,综合排名前四名学校的优势项目群呈现不同程度的重叠现象;各高校优势项目群的消长率增长与降低总体呈交替性波动,整体呈两级分化趋势;速度项目群将会领先于其他项群而得到优先发展.     

基于季报数据的收入公告后漂移现象研究

利用收入指标对股票超额收益率进行解释构成了理解"定价异常"的重要方面。为此,基于盈余公告后漂移的理论分析框架,以上证A股2008年1季度至2011年4季度的相关数据为基础,利用标准化预期外收入估计量(SURE)和分类检验模型方法对中国股票市场公告期内股票价格的收入公告后漂移现象进行实证检验,研究发现:在盈余公告期内,预期外收入与股票超额收益率呈现出负相关或是不显著的关系,即中国股票市场的收入公告后漂移效应不显著。之后的稳健性分析也同样证实了负相关或是不显著关系的存在,而这种异常可能与中国股市的弱有效率相关。     

Clustering of seasonal events: A simulation study using circular methods

ABSTRACT

In a changing climate, changes in timing of seasonal events such as floods and flowering should be assessed using circular methods. Six different methods for clustering on a circle and one linear method are compared across different locations, spreads, and sample sizes. Best results are obtained when clusters are well separated and the number of observations in each cluster is approximately equal. Simulations of flood-like distributions are used to assess and explore clustering methods. Generally, k-means provides results that are close to the expected results, some other methods perform well under specific conditions, but no single method is exemplary.     

A Recursive Formula for the Probability of Occurrence of at Least m out of N Events

A recursive same-sign relation is derived that reduces the probability of occurrence of at least m out of N independent events to the probability of occurrence of at least m out of N ? 1 of these N events.     

Modelling small and medium enterprise loan defaults as rare events: the generalized extreme value regression model

A pivotal characteristic of credit defaults that is ignored by most credit scoring models is the rarity of the event. The most widely used model to estimate the probability of default is the logistic regression model. Since the dependent variable represents a rare event, the logistic regression model shows relevant drawbacks, for example, underestimation of the default probability, which could be very risky for banks. In order to overcome these drawbacks, we propose the generalized extreme value regression model. In particular, in a generalized linear model (GLM) with the binary-dependent variable we suggest the quantile function of the GEV distribution as link function, so our attention is focused on the tail of the response curve for values close to one. The estimation procedure used is the maximum-likelihood method. This model accommodates skewness and it presents a generalisation of GLMs with complementary log–log link function. We analyse its performance by simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed model to empirical data on Italian small and medium enterprises.     

Temporal blindspots in Occupy Philadelphia

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the disjunctive temporalities of Occupy Philadelphia’s political constituencies. Drawing on both an ethnographic participant observation study of the Occupy Philadelphia movement and Philadelphia’s neoanarchist political communities, and on recent social scientific theorization of events, the paper argues that contradictory ideas about temporal timescales, momentum, duration, sequences, and rhythms of tactical and strategic action problematized interaction and coordination among movement participants. These points of coordinative disjuncture can be traced back to differences in participants’ ideas about prefigurative politics and strategic temporalities. Limning the temporal expectations and experiences of social movement participants, this paper contributes to the examination of both linkages and disjunctures between eventful temporalities experienced in moments of protest and in social movements with diverse timescales.