Ethnic segregation in context: Social discrimination among native Dutch pupils and their ethnic minority classmates

Social discrimination, defined as the relative preference for intra-ethnic over inter-ethnic relationships, was studied in pupils’ networks in Dutch secondary school classes. While native Dutch pupils (ethnic majority members) mainly named fellow majority members, ethnic minority members reported ties with as many majority as minority members. Considering the ethnic composition of the classroom, however, majority members discriminated less than minorities. No strong effect of classroom ethnic composition on social discrimination was found, whereas neighborhood composition was shown to clearly influence social discrimination: ethnic minority members were more, and majority members less inclined to discriminate in neighborhoods with more ethnic presence.     

FDI’s Impact on Transitional Countries, Serbia as a Rational Choice: The FIAT-ZASTAVA Case

The privatization process and foreign direct investments (FDI) are among the most important economic issues in transitional countries. FDI has enormous influence on transitional countries that need serious structural changes. In this paper we will study FIAT’s decision to invest in the Serbian automotive industry. We will try to rationalize FIAT’s decision because Serbian car manufacturer ZASTAVA was not the only alternative for FIAT to invest in the Balkans. In order to justify FIAT’s decision we will apply the Mullins model of horizontal and vertical FDI, examine the importance of the cooperating history between two car manufacturers and compare macroeconomic conditions and Global Competitiveness of Serbia and Romania, which was the main alternative for FIAT. Finally, we will also try to explain why FIAT decided to announce the investment at the end of political campaign in Serbia when pools gave anti-European parties higher chances for victory, instead of waiting to see the outcome of the elections.

Who cares and how much: exploring the determinants of co-residential informal care

The importance of informal care provided inside the household (co-residential care) is widely acknowledged in policy circles. However, the factors that determine the likelihood and scale of provision are not fully understood. A two-part model (2PM) is used to investigate both participation and levels of provision. Random effects dynamic panel specifications are employed. Results show that co-residential informal care competes with other time demanding activities, such as childcare and employment. Wealthier individuals are less likely to be caregivers, whereas wealthier households have a higher tendency towards caregiving. Evidence of both substitution and complementarity is found between formal and informal care. Informal care and health status are significantly related, with carers more likely to report worse General Health Questionnaire scores than non-carers. Finally, significant dynamic effects are observed with the continuance of the provision of informal care being more likely than the initiation of such activity, while heavy commitment in the past increases the hours provided in the current period.

封闭人群生存人数整体预测--以Lee-Carter模型为例

由不同组别人群组成封闭人群整体生存人数的预测是相关经济、社会问题研究的基础。现有文献在研究相关问题时,使用的方法为：首先根据动态死亡率模型对其中具有相同特征不同部分的生存人数进行预测,之后通过加总得到整体人数的预测（简称现有方法）。由于现有方法忽略了不同特征人群死亡率变动间相关性的影响,会低估生存人数的波动性。本文使用Lee?Carter模型,在将封闭人群按性别分组的基础上,给出了构建生存人数整体预测模型的过程和实例。并通过理论分析和数值模拟两个视角对现有方法和新方法做了比较。比较结果指出：在死亡率波动具有广泛相关性的现实世界中,只有在均值预测时,现有方法才可以达到预期效果,因此笔者建议在对整体人数（特别是涉及方差和分布函数）预测时,使用本文介绍的整体生存人数预测模型。     

Number of children and later-life mortality among Finns born 1938–50

We investigated the association between number of offspring and later-life mortality of Finnish men and women born 1938–50, and whether the association was explained by living conditions in own childhood and adulthood, chronic conditions, fertility timing, and unobserved characteristics common to siblings. We used a longitudinal 1950 census sample to estimate mortality at ages 50–72. Relative to parents of two children, all-cause mortality is highest among childless men and women, and elevated among those with one child, independently of observed confounders. Fixed-effect models, which control for unobserved characteristics shared by siblings, clearly support these findings among men. Cardiovascular mortality is higher among men with no, one, or at least four children than among those with two. Living conditions in adulthood contribute to the association between the number of children and mortality to a greater extent than childhood background, and chronic conditions contribute to the excess mortality of the childless.     

医疗保险对农村居民家庭消费的影响分析--基于不同收入层级的跨地区比较

利用2009、2010农村固定观察点数据,分析了医疗保险对不同地区、不同收入层级的农村居民家庭医疗消费支出和非医疗消费支出的影响。实证结果表明：医疗保险对农村居民家庭的医疗类消费不存在显著影响,对非医疗类消费支出则存在显著的正向促进作用。分地区来看,医疗保险对东西部地区农村居民家庭医疗类消费的影响差异显著,对东中部地区农村居民家庭非医疗类消费支出的影响同样差异显著;分收入层级来看,医疗保险对家庭医疗类消费的影响在不同收入层级的农村居民家庭之间不存在显著差异,但对非医疗类消费支出的影响在不同收入层级之间差异显著。此外,商业医疗保险作为医疗保险体系的重要组成部分,对促进农村消费起到带动作用。最后,本文从加大政府补贴和完善保障机制两个方面提出政策建议以期有效降低农村居民家庭超常的预防性储蓄,促进农村居民家庭消费。     

Improved randomized response in additive scrambling models

Randomized response models deal with stigmatizing variables appearing in health surveys. Additive and subtractive scrambling in split sample and double response yield unbiased mean and sensitivity estimators of high precision. The split sample method is protective of privacy. The double response method is as protective only conditionally. To achieve the maximum efficiency, the scrambling variables must be similar to each other and the probability of obtaining a true response must be as large as possible. The randomized response procedures yield more efficient estimates of the average total number of classes missed by university students.     

电信运营商投资效益仿真研究——基于系统动力学视角

针对目前电信运营商投资效益分析方法单一的现状,依据电信运营商投资效益非线性、动态性等特征,运用系统动力学方法构建了电信运营商投资效益仿真模型,对电信运营商投资效益影响因素进行了仿真分析。结果表明网络设备延迟投入、综合造价等对投资效益影响较大,在此基础上,给出了电信运营商在针对投入产出水平和提升效益方面的建议。     

机械设计制造及其自动化专业人才培养模式的创新实践

在新的历史条件下,深化高等教育改革、提高专业人才培养质量,关键是必须改革和创新专业人才培养模式。围绕专业人才培养目标和基本要求,从制订专业人才培养方案、建立基于课程群的完整的人才培养课程体系、创新人才培养模式等方面,阐述了我校机械设计制造及其自动化专业进行综合改革的具体做法,这对其他高校相关专业的教学改革及人才培养,具有一定的启发。     

水质预报系统的MPI+OpenMP并行优化研究

OpenMP(Open Multi-Processing)能够在共享存储环境中获得理想的并行性能,MPI＋OpenMP混合并行编程模型更贴近于多核心集群的体系结构。在多核心集群上进行实验,混合模型相对串行程序可缩短95%的运算时间,加速比超过20。实验结果表明,该混合模型比纯MPI并行的系统具有更优的加速比和扩展性,是对纯MPI并行系统的一种改进。