多重不确定环境下基于证据理论的NIS安全风险评估模型

以证据理论为基础,构造一种能够适应多重不确定环境的网络信息系统安全风险评估模型。在模型中建立安全风险评估指标体系并对指标权重进行量化;重新定义基本概率赋值函数,以适应安全风险评估过程中证据的不确定性描述;实现证据一致性检验并确定调整方法,从而进一步降低评估过程中专家经验的不确定性;最后,通过实证分析验证该模型的正确性和有效性。     

基于可变参数优化的相关证据合成方法研究

总结了相关证据合成的理论方法,分析了已有合成方法的不足,对相关证据的相关焦元 的分布情况进行了分析,提出一种面向问题的基于可变参数的相关证据的合成方法. 方法只对 相关焦元的基本可信数进行修正,克服了对相关证据所有焦元进行修正的弱点,使修正的对象 更加合理,修正系数可用基于学习的寻优方法得到. 在相关证据的相关焦元的基本可信数未知 的情况下也可进行相关证据的合成. 计算结果表明该方法对合成的结果有明显的改进     

诉讼证据概念与特征新论

诉讼证据概念和特征一直以来都是证据法学界争议较多的问题之一。传统证据概念中的“事实说”以及刑诉法修正案草案中的“材料说”都值得商榷;传统诉讼证据特征中的客观性、关联性、合法性并非诉讼证据之特征,而是诉讼证据成为定案根据的要件或标准。在概念上,诉讼证据应定义为刑事诉讼控辩双方、民事和行政诉讼原被告双方当事人在诉讼过程中用以证明自己诉讼主张的根据;由此,诉讼证据的基本特征应采四性说,即诉讼证明性、诉讼当事人性、案件信息承载性和诉讼时效性。     

Evidential inference for diffusion-type processes

This article analyses diffusion-type processes from a new point-of-view. Consider two statistical hypotheses on a diffusion process. We do not use a classical test to reject or accept one hypothesis using the Neyman–Pearson procedure and do not involve Bayesian approach. As an alternative, we propose using a likelihood paradigm to characterizing the statistical evidence in support of these hypotheses. The method is based on evidential inference introduced and described by Royall [Royall R. Statistical evidence: a likelihood paradigm. London: Chapman and Hall; 1997]. In this paper, we extend the theory of Royall to the case when data are observations from a diffusion-type process instead of iid observations. The empirical distribution of likelihood ratio is used to formulate the probability of strong, misleading and weak evidences. Since the strength of evidence can be affected by the sampling characteristics, we present a simulation study that demonstrates these effects. Also we try to control misleading evidence and reduce them by adjusting these characteristics. As an illustration, we apply the method to the Microsoft stock prices.     

Evaluation of trace evidence in the form of multivariate data

Summary.  The evaluation of measurements on characteristics of trace evidence found at a crime scene and on a suspect is an important part of forensic science. Five methods of assessment for the value of the evidence for multivariate data are described. Two are based on significance tests and three on the evaluation of likelihood ratios. The likelihood ratio which compares the probability of the measurements on the evidence assuming a common source for the crime scene and suspect evidence with the probability of the measurements on the evidence assuming different sources for the crime scene and suspect evidence is a well-documented measure of the value of the evidence. One of the likelihood ratio approaches transforms the data to a univariate projection based on the first principal component. The other two versions of the likelihood ratio for multivariate data account for correlation among the variables and for two levels of variation: that between sources and that within sources. One version assumes that between-source variability is modelled by a multivariate normal distribution; the other version models the variability with a multivariate kernel density estimate. Results are compared from the analysis of measurements on the elemental composition of glass.     

从燃烧问题研究史看科学证据的时效性

在燃烧问题研究史上,各个时期的科学家围绕燃素说或氧化理论提出了各自的证据。从时效性来看,这些证据的效用可分为永久性、实时性和虚拟性三种。永久性观点认为证据的效用不会随着假说成立与否而发生改变;实时性观点认为证据的效用会随着原有假说被推翻而失效;虚拟性观点认为只有那些支持正确假说的证据才具有真正的效用,而最终被推翻的那些假说原有的证据只不过起到了虚拟支持的作用。     

现行证据法定形式批判

我国的证据法定形式只有八种,诉讼中证据只能以这八种法定形式存在,不能再包括其他任何形式的证据。这样的证据法定形式存在三个深层次问题：一是证据法定形式呈现封闭性,很多证据无法归入八种限定的法定形式;二是法定证据定义阙如,各证据法定形式内涵外延不确定;三是证据法定形式划分标准混乱,各证据法定形式相互交叉叠床架屋。这种不合理的立法规定导致了司法实践中证据法定形式形同虚设。因此,对现行的证据法定形式进行批判,着力解决上述三个问题,是非常必要的。     

论徐中舒的“澄滤”说与古史建设理论

徐中舒先生的史学,直接继承了中国传统史学的考据方法,并受到王国维、梁启超、陈寅恪、李济等学术思想的深刻影响。他运用"澄滤"说和"素地"论对于上古时期文献记载和古史传说的发生及其演变过程进行分析,更具科学和理性。"古史三重证"的方法论为"澄滤"说提供了可靠的保证。     

论规范性文件在行政诉讼中的定性

当前,理论界和实务界一般把规范性文件排除在行政诉讼的证据范围之外,而从证据的特征、行政法的相关规定以及相关学者的理论分析来看,一般规范性文件应当作为行政诉讼的证据,这不仅是行政诉讼法理论的需要,也是行政诉讼实践的需要。