A Tiered Framework for Risk‐Relevant Characterization and Ranking of Chemical Exposures: Applications to the National Children's Study (NCS)

A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.     

Can art-based reflection help us cope with organisational change in the public sector?

Never before have public sector jobs been so threatened. Fear and anxiety have shifted their focus, from performance to survival. With reference to immediately contemporary works on the NHS in particular, such as Mandelstam (2011) and Leys and Player (2011), the paper establishes the factual validity of the crisis.

The authors conducted a series of workshops for public sector staff to enable them to explore their reactions to the current situation.

It is possible to identify increasing levels of denial and other forms of resistance to change similar to those first identified by Menzies' (1959). Drawing on the work of Bion (cited Obholzer & Roberts, 1994) the paper considers the dangers of a retreat to the paranoid schizoid position, and identifies a theoretical clue in Halton (2004) for turning the trauma of change into a creative opportunity.

Art has access to emotional, spiritual and creative facets of the human mind that science cannot explore. Klein's (1975) consideration of the infantile and regressive aspect of art is acknowledged. The paper then considers what is revealed by a study of specific works of art which were presented in the workshops; including paintings by Bosch, Rousseau, Breughel and Goya. The work of Zagier-Roberts (1998) and Winnicott (1971) is called upon to endorse the usefulness of such a playful collage of responses.

Art can be used to help people move through Kubler Ross' stages of bereavement (1997); not to acceptance but out of the paranoid schizoid position into the depressive position (Klein 1975). Revisiting the work of Halton (2004) and the concept of evolutionary creativity, a move on from the depressive position can begin. Collective validation can be affirmed through a rebooting of the essential public sector values while a radical turning away from organisational priorities, to face the service user, provides a more far reaching optimism than any envisaged by an essentially limited demand for modernisation.

In conclusion the paper considers the recent contributions of Dienst (2011) and Dumenil and Levy (2011) to advocate tactical resistance to the denigration of the public sphere.     

哈代向善思想在《贝妲的婚姻》中的呈现

哈代的作品中大部分是通过对婚姻、宗教、道德、教育以及妇女解放等问题来对资本主义工业背景下的社会进行批判。《贝坦的婚姻》中讲述了贝妲为了自己的婚姻从与权贵斗争再到妥协的历程,通过小说人物的心理变化,可以让人们感受到贝妲的无奈,同时也体现了哈代的向善思想的发展,让我们对作品有更加深刻的认识。     

Financial liberalization and long-run stability of money demand in Nigeria

A stable money demand function is essential when using monetary aggregate as a monetary policy. Thus, there is need to examine the stability of the money demand function in Nigeria after the deregulation of the financial sector. To achieve this, the study employed CUSUM (cumulative sum) and CUSUMSQ (CUSUM of square) tests after using autoregressive distributive lag bounds test to determine the existence of a long run relationship between monetary aggregates and their determinants. Results of the study show that a long-run relationship holds and that the demand for money is stable in Nigeria. In addition, the inflation rate is found to be a better proxy for an opportunity variable when compared to interest rate. The main implication of the study is that interest rate is ineffective as a monetary policy instrument in Nigeria.     

Institutionalising the evaluation function: A South African study of impartiality,use and cost

PurposeThis article explores the implications of outsourcing the evaluation function in South Africa, a context where there is a mismatch between evaluation supply and demand. It unpacks the tradeoffs between internal and external evaluation, and challenges some commonly held assumptions about both.ApproachBased on experiences as an internal evaluator, external evaluator, evaluation manager, and building evaluation capacity, the author explores how each role changes when evaluation is a scarce skill, and looks at implications outsourcing has for both the organization, and the evaluation.FindingsThe purpose of the evaluation must drive the decision to outsource. However, with changing models of collaboration, there may be hybrid options that allow organizations to build evaluation capacity.Practical implicationsOrganisations are faced with a trade-off between commissioning an evaluation, and building internal evaluation capacity. To better understand each approach, it is important to consider the purpose and context of the evaluation. This shifts some commonly held assumptions about internal and external evaluations. Re-examining these assumptions will help organizations make a more informed decision about an evaluation approach.Originality/valueThe field of evaluation is particularly concerned with evaluation use. Most of the literature on this has focused on the approach of individual evaluators, and insufficient attention has been paid to the institutional architecture of the evaluation. This article considers how some of the organisational structures around an evaluation contribute to evidence use, and the case study of South Africa also shifts the focus to the central but overlooked role of context in the debate.     

台湾社区总体营造的运行模式探析

台湾在二十世纪的八十年代末至九十年代,特别是在解除戒严体制之后,越来越多的人开始关心他们所居住的社区,出现了所谓的社区总体营造。及至至今,台湾的社区总体营造可谓风生水起,对台湾的发展,特别是台湾人民的生活起到了非常重要的作用。在当今经济社会全球一体化的大背景下,台湾社区总体营造模式能成功实施并延续至今,这对于大陆地区所开展的新农村建设具有重要的借鉴价值。     

Spatial Distribution of Flood Risk and Quality of Spatial Management: Case Study in Odra Valley,Poland

This article presents methodological solutions aimed at presenting the spatial distribution of flood risk and quality of spatial management (land use), indicating both those areas used reasonably and those requiring modification. The purpose was to identify key risk areas and risk‐free areas from the point of view of human security and activity on the floodplains, based on the examples of the vicinities of Wroclaw and Raciborz in the Odra Valley, Poland. Due to recent climate change, Poland has suffered the effects of severe flooding (e.g., 1997, 2001, 2010). The analyses conducted were motivated by the European Parliament and Council's recently implemented Directive 2007/60/WE, as well as by the demand for studies for local spatial planning. The analysis indicates that reasonably developed areas do not account for the majority of those studied, making up 36% of the Wroclaw area and 15% of the Raciborz area.     

铸牢中华民族共同体意识的法治实践路径研究

根据第五次中央民族工作会议的指导精神,中华民族共同体的法治建设与铸牢中华民族共同体意识是交叉同构的, 需在习近平法治思想和马克思主义多民族国家建设理论的基础上,探析铸牢中华民族共同体意识的法治实践路径。 第一,可 建设权利本位与义务本位相协调的中华民族法制共同体。 第二,应以党的领导为统领推进民族事务治理法治化。 第三,需以 立法、执法、司法为统筹全面深化法治实践。 第四,可通过法治教育为媒介巩固共有法治精神家园。 总之,法制共同体是中华 民族为人类历史转向所优化的现代法治范式,法治为铸牢中华民族共同体意识提供了制度实践基础,彰显了依法治国背景下 “德法共治”的平衡。     

Social mobility and demand for redistribution in Europe: a comparative analysis

The literature on preferences for redistribution has paid little attention to the effect of social mobility on the demand for redistribution and no systematic test of the hypotheses connecting social mobility and preferences for redistribution has yet been done to date. We use the diagonal reference model to estimate the effect of origin and destination classes on preferences for redistribution in a large sample of European countries using data from the European Social Survey. Our findings are consistent with the logic of acculturation in the sense that newcomers tend to adapt their views to those of the destination class at early stages and that upward and downward mobility do not have distinctive effects on the formation of political preferences. However, even though social origins seem to have a limited impact on preferences for redistribution, the evidence does not support the hypothesis that mobile and non‐mobile individuals are alike. We also find that the effect of social origin on preferences varies largely across countries. The empirical evidence leads to the conclusion that the effect of social origin on preferences for redistribution increases in contexts of strong familism.     

基于修正UTAUT模型的农信社手机银行使用行为研究——以福建省农户调查数据为例

基于UTAUT模型,引入感知风险、替代软件等2个变量进行修正,构建农信社手机银行使用行为影响因素研究模型,并运用结构方程模型、Bootstrap中介检验、多群组分析等方法对福建省农户调查数据进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)感知易用性显著正向影响农信社手机银行使用意愿;感知风险和替代软件显著负向影响农信社手机银行使用意愿;社会影响对农信社手机银行使用意愿影响不显著。(2)便利条件和使用意愿显著正向影响农信社手机银行使用行为;农信社手机银行使用行为影响因素由大到小依次为便利条件、替代软件、感知风险、感知易用性。(3)教育在感知易用性对农信社手机银行使用意愿影响中具有调节作用。据此提出,应进一步增强操作的便利性以优化业务办理效率,增强信息的安全性以降低软件使用风险,增强软件的特色性以降低软件可替代性,增强软件的易用性以优化便捷使用体验,从而优化农村金融服务供给,助推农村经济发展。