Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation

Emergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this article introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an exponential utility function to reflect the disutility loss due to material shortfalls), and illustrates the relationship between equity of allocations and the cost of emergency response. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate both the feasibility and the usefulness of the proposed model for achieving multiperiod equitable allocation of emergency material among multiple disaster locations. The results indicate that the introduction of a nonlinear utility function to reflect the disutility of large shortfalls can make the material allocation fairer, and minimize large losses due to shortfalls. We found that achieving equity has a significant but not unreasonable impact on emergency costs. We also illustrate that using differing utility functions for different types of materials adds an important dimension of flexibility.     

基于消费者效用的生鲜农产品供应链生鲜度激励机制研究

生鲜供应链整体生鲜度的提升对减少浪费、提高供应链整体盈利水平及社会福利有重要意义。本文基于消费者效用理论研究了两供应商和单一零售商组成的供应链系统,构建了单周期下生鲜农产品生鲜度激励模型,模型以供应商为领导者,采用Stackelberg博弈方法求解得到了均衡状态下供应商、零售商的最优定价策略及供应商新鲜度努力选择。研究结果表明,供应商和零售商利润与消费者价格敏感系数呈反向变化,与新鲜度敏感系数呈同向变化。在价格竞争市场,供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与价格替代率呈反向变化;在生鲜度竞争市场,供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与新鲜度替代率呈同向变化。基于研究结论,厂商及政府应当联手引导消费者的消费观念,尽可能减少由于信息不对称引致的道德风险,在市场价格替代率不变甚至降低的情形下,提高生鲜度替代率,使得消费者的意愿支付价格上升,提高自身讨价还价能力,获取更多利润。     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

Intertemporal choice under timing risk: An experimental approach

This paper investigates how individuals evaluate delayed outcomes with risky realization times. Under the discounted expected utility (DEU) model, such evaluations depend only on intertemporal preferences. We obtain several testable hypotheses using the DEU model as a benchmark and test these hypotheses in three experiments. In general, our results show that the DEU model is a poor predictor of intertemporal choice behavior under timing risk. We found that individuals are averse to timing risk and that they evaluate timing lotteries in a rank-dependent fashion. The main driver of timing risk aversion is nothing but probabilistic risk aversion that stems from the nonlinear treatment of probabilities.     

汉字的意象性与文学性的视像化

汉语文字的意象性比任何其他表音文字都鲜明、强烈、特殊,这是因为汉语主要是一种表意文字,而它的特征就在于它是形、音、义的对立统一,因此,汉字的形、音、义是既相对独立的,而又相互统一的。这样形、音、义的对立统一所形成的汉字的意象性,使得汉语语言艺术的文学性可以得到最充分的彰显,因为所谓文学性就是使语言文字结构成为美的艺术形态的那些内在规定性,即外观形象性,情感感染性,超越功利性,而文学性与语言文字的意象性密切相关,尤其是在当今信息化时代,语言文字信息的视像化转换就特别显现出汉字的意象性的优越性,它最适合文学作为语言艺术的信息视像化。     

公用事业的民营化

公用事业民营化是一种国际化潮流。本文就民营化的内涵,民营化的国际背景和现实背景,民营化的积极作用以及相应政策建议作初步的探讨。     

荷兰赌论证的含义

经典荷兰赌论证表明:如果当事人的不确定信念度赋值不满足概率论公理,那么他在某一赌局中总是输。然而该论断并没有揭示荷兰赌的含义。文章基于拉姆齐的概念和公理,首先论证存在一个效用函数,它合理地表达了价值的定性概念,然后论证信念度的性质。这些概念的性质表明,所谓不确定信念系统的一致性是指价值与信念度的赋值和偏好的序关系是一致的。荷兰赌论证意味着,在当事人的不确定信念系统中,有关定性和定量概念之间没有协调性:其价值和信念度赋值是混乱的,并导致非理性决策。在这种情形下,当事人不确定信念系统的一致性将遭到破坏。由此可见,通过阐明荷兰赌论证的含义,我们可以为归纳和决策做出辩护。     

语言符号、商品和货币

语言学和经济学彼此相互联系。两者都面临价值的概念。索绪尔只从系统的视角阐述了语言符号的价值即位值,没有讨论语言符号在交际过程中所体现的效用价值。以商品和货币作参照,讨论了语言符号的一般特征,同时指出其独特性。     

Labelled Graphical Models

A class of log‐linear models, referred to as labelled graphical models (LGMs), is introduced for multinomial distributions. These models generalize graphical models (GMs) by employing partial conditional independence restrictions which are valid only in subsets of an outcome space. Theoretical results concerning model identifiability, decomposability and estimation are derived. A decision theoretical framework and a search algorithm for the identification of plausible models are described. Real data sets are used to illustrate that LGMs may provide a simpler interpretation of a dependence structure than GMs.     

行政法作用之定量评价探讨——运用模糊数学综合评价方法的尝试

我国法学界学者们长期以来对行政法作用的评价大多以定性评价为主,很少运用图表、指标等定量评价方法,导致评价的内容不确定、评价过程随意、评价结果缺乏应有的准确性。有鉴于此,尝试运用模糊数学综合评价方法,对行政法在保护公共利益和个人利益方面的作用分别予以定量评价,说明行政法在对它们的保护方面存在着明显的不协调性,进而分析了造成该现象的原因。此项研究有助于更加全面、客观地认识行政法在促进和保障当前经济社会发展中的作用。