中国服务业显性比较优势测算——基于前向联系增加值出口

基于"前向联系增加值出口"方法,测算了1995-2011年中国服务业细分产业层面及按要素密集度特征分类层面的显性比较优势指数(RCA_F),并同基于"总出口"1的比较优势指数(RCA)进行了比较。研究发现,中国在全球价值链分工中,比较优势集中在资本密集型服务业领域,且实现了比较劣势向比较优势的转变;劳动、知识密集型服务业及健康教育公共服务均尚未取得比较优势,但是有迹象表明三个领域的比较劣势有改善的趋势。与基于前向联系增加值出口核算结果相比,基于总出口核算结果"高估"了劳动密集型产业的比较优势,其中对建筑业和零售贸易两个部门的估计偏差最大;同时,在资本、知识密集型两个领域存在不同程度的"低估"现象。     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

儒家“义—利”价值结构与西方“财富”价值结构比较研究简

通过中国儒家和西方经济价值结构的比较研究，发现儒家以“义一利”为价值结构模型，西方以“财富”为价值结构模型。儒家价值结构的基本特征是“义体利用”，表现方式是：强国的道义在于顺天时、尽地利、忠人和；安国的道义在于民朴民富；治国的道义在于蓄储俭用。西方价值结构的基本特征是“利体义用”，表现方式是：鼓励获取财富、财富规则和财富责任。儒家“义一利”价值结构与西方“财富”价值结构是两种不同的价值评判话语体系，在中国现代“义利共体”的价值结构建构中，儒家价值结构提供着人文精神基础，西方价值结构提供着物质文明建设可资借鉴的经验。     

问题类型划分方法视野下的犯罪概念研究

在问题类型划分方法的视野下,犯罪概念问题应该属于纯粹刑法学问题中的解释选择问题,但刑法学界以往有关犯罪概念的讨论却大多将其作为刑法问题中的价值判断问题。由于未能妥当确定犯罪概念的问题类型,从而使学界有关犯罪概念的讨论未能达成最低限度的学术共识。作为纯粹刑法学问题中的解释选择问题,形式与实质相结合的混合犯罪概念不存在被替代的必要性,而犯罪概念也不应被规定在刑法典中。     

Goodness—of—fit for the two—parameter weibull distribution with estimated parameters

Goodness—of—fit statistics based on the empirical distribution function (EDF) are not distribution—free when parameters for the hypothesized distribution are estimated. Tables are percentile values of several EDF statistics are available for the two—parameter Weibull distribution when parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood. To determine how these tabled values change when simpler estimators are employed, percentile scores for EDF goodness—of—fit tests were obtained by Monte—Carlo simulation for maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), good linear unbiased estimators (GLUEs), and modified Cramer—von Mises, Anderson—Darling, and Watson statistics are presented for GLUEs for both complete and censored samples. Critical values for Kolmogorov—Smirnov statistics were less affected by the method of estimation than were closer for MLEs and MGLUEs than for MGLUEs and GLUEs. On the other hand, MGLUE and GLUE results were much more similar to each other than to the MLE results when censoring was light and sample sizes were large.     

节目试看对网络视频运营商市场策略影响研究

随着网络视频运营商收费节目试看的兴起，而节目试看对网络视频运营商诸如市场规模，利润等市场策略的影响所知甚少。本文在考虑网络用户情绪效用情况下，通过构建高质量视频运营商首播节目与后来跟进的低质量视频运营商播出该节目的博弈模型，研究高质量视频运营商首播节目之前提供节目试看对两个运营商收费模式下的节目最优收费价格和免费模式下的最优嵌入广告量以及视频节目提供模式选择的影响。研究表明，高质量视频运营商在节目首播之前提供节目充分试看能够实现节目最优收费价格最高，利润最大，因此节目充分试看是其最优策略；并且低质量运营商在其单位广告收益与用户单位广告"成本"满足一定条件下，高质量运营商提供的节目的充分试看能够减少低质量运营商总利润，因此避免低质量视频运营商搭乘节目试看的顺风车；高质量视频运营商提供节目充分试看情况下，高质量视频运营商只采取收费模式为其最优市场策略，低质量视频运营商采取免费模式为其最优市场策略。本文的研究成果对网络视频运营商日常运营有一定的管理学启示与应用价值。     

重温马克思两大发现的诞生及其关系——对目前《资本论》研究中一种倾向的辩诘

在否认剩余价值理论科学性的同时承认唯物史观,是当下《资本论》研究中的一种重要倾向。要分析这种倾向就得重温马克思两大发现的诞生及其关系。马克思通过政治经济学研究得到了其第一个科学发现,即被称为唯物史观的＂人类历史的发展规律＂;在这个发现的指导下,马克思进一步研究政治经济学而作出了第二个科学发现,即以剩余价值理论为基础的＂资产阶级社会的特殊的运动规律＂;第二个发现对第一个发现又起到了证成作用。因而这两个科学发现之间是普遍性与特殊性的关系,而不是哲学与科学的关系,也不是两种哲学的关系。脱离剩余价值理论的唯物史观与脱离唯物史观的剩余价值理论一样,都是不能成立的。     

Tail Behavior and Limit Distribution of Maximum of Logarithmic General Error Distribution

Logarithmic general error distribution, an extension of the log-normal distribution, is proposed. Some interesting properties of the log GED are derived. These properties are applied to establish the asymptotic behavior of the ratio of probability densities and the ratio of the tails of the logarithmic general error and log-normal distributions, and to derive the asymptotic distribution of the partial maximum of an independent and identically distributed sequence obeying the log GED.     

《考工记》对科技档案的贡献之研究

《考工记》是两千多年前由齐国人编纂的一部手工业科技文献，也是目前中国所见年代最早的有关手工业制造及工艺技术的记述。早在1996年，在齐文化发源地山东淄博召开的“第一届中国科技典籍国际会议”上，学者们就此书的科学价值发表了多篇论文，形成了《考工记》研究的一个高潮。重温这部我国手工业制造编纂史的奠基之作，对指导科技档案工作仍有重要的现实意义。