反腐倡廉的历史方位、主要特点与发展走势

中国在社会大转型与改革开放的伟大实践中走出了一条具有中国特色的反腐败之路。新时期,反腐倡廉建设对于党的建设新的伟大工程具有重要的意义。民主与法治是中国反腐倡廉的根本之道。而通过制度建设来构建国家廉政体系则是反腐倡廉的未来蓝图。     

A variable-neighbourhood search algorithm for finding optimal run orders in the presence of serial correlation

The responses obtained from response surface designs that are run sequentially often exhibit serial correlation or time trends. The order in which the runs of the design are performed then has an impact on the precision of the parameter estimators. This article proposes the use of a variable-neighbourhood search algorithm to compute run orders that guarantee a precise estimation of the effects of the experimental factors. The importance of using good run orders is demonstrated by seeking D-optimal run orders for a central composite design in the presence of an AR(1) autocorrelation pattern.     

A small but practically useful modification to the Hodrick–Prescott filtering: A note

The Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filtering is widely applied to decompose macroeconomic time series, such as real Gross Domestic Product, into cyclical and trend components. This paper presents a small but practically useful modification to this approach. The reason why this modified filtering is of practical use is that it provides not only identical trend estimates as the HP filtering but also extrapolations of the trend. We provide a proof based on a ridge regression representation of the modified HP filtering. This is mainly because it enhances our understanding of the approach.     

The Frisch–Waugh–Lovell theorem for the lasso and the ridge regression

The Frisch–Waugh–Lovell (FWL) (partitioned regression) theorem is essential in regression analysis. This is partly because it is quite useful to derive theoretical results. The lasso regression and the ridge regression, both of which are penalized least-squares regressions, have become popular statistical techniques. This article describes that the FWL theorem remains valid for these penalized least-squares regressions. More precisely, we demonstrate that the covariates corresponding to unpenalized regression parameters in these penalized least-squares regression can be projected out. Some other results related to the FWL theorem in such penalized least-squares regressions are also presented.     

Signal extraction goodness-of-fit diagnostic tests under model parameter uncertainty: Formulations and empirical evaluation

We present a time-domain goodness-of-fit (gof) diagnostic test that is based on signal-extraction variances for nonstationary time series. This diagnostic test extends the time-domain gof statistic of Maravall (2003 Maravall, A. (2003). A class of diagnostics in the ARIMA-model-based decomposition of a time series. Memorandum, Bank of Spain. Available at http://www.bde.es/servicio/software/tramo/diagnosticsamb.pdf [Google Scholar]) by taking into account the effects of model parameter uncertainty, utilizing theoretical results of McElroy and Holan (2009 McElroy, T., Holan, S. (2009). A local spectral approach for assessing time series model misspeci?cation. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100:604–621.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We demonstrate that omitting this correction results in a severely undersized statistic. Adequate size and power are obtained in Monte Carlo studies for fairly short time series (10 to 15 years of monthly data). Our Monte Carlo studies of finite sample size and power consider different combinations of both signal and noise components using seasonal, trend, and irregular component models obtained via canonical decomposition. Details of the implementation appropriate for SARIMA models are given. We apply the gof diagnostic test statistics to several U.S. Census Bureau time series. The results generally corroborate the output of the automatic model selection procedure of the X-12-ARIMA software, which in contrast to our diagnostic test statistic does not involve hypothesis testing. We conclude that these diagnostic test statistics are a useful supplementary model-checking tool for practitioners engaged in the task of model-based seasonal adjustment.     

Racial/Ethnic Minority Vocational Research Trends: An 11‐Year Update

This study extends Flores et al.'s ( 2006 ) 36‐year analysis of racial/ethnic minority (REM) career research to identify recent trends in choice of topics and leading individual and institutional contributors. The authors identified 166 articles on REM career research published from 2005 to 2015 in the Journal of Vocational Behavior, The Career Development Quarterly, the Journal of Career Assessment, and the Journal of Career Development. Of these studies, 92% were empirical, with more than three quarters of these using quantitative rather than qualitative methodology. Most frequently, the empirical studies (n = 153) were based on samples of high school (30.7%) or undergraduate (34.6%) students. The authors discuss the implications of their findings and suggest ways to expand REM career research in the future.     

晚清革命思潮发生与发展的动态过程

革命思潮是革命思想的发展,而革命思想则源于革命意识。晚清革命意识的形成,固然为国人受不良现实剌激的结果,也与仇满、反满的历史记忆和西方革命学说传播不无联系。不断汇聚的革命意识经过"编码",逐渐形成较为理性和系统的革命思想。而职业革命者对革命的论证与宣传,则使革命思想的张力增强,传播强度提高,革命的观念场与意识流逐渐成型,且不断发展,革命思潮于焉形成。     

美元的霸权性及其对全球利益博弈的影响

国际利益博弈源于国家之间需求的碰撞,自1970年代起,全球发展进入后工业社会阶段,美元作为世界货币,其表面的"美金→石油美元"转换后面,是美元信用来源的"实际财富抵押→暴力抵押"的转换;该转换带来了一个全新的世界格局,即"美元/全球资源资产"与"美元/美国国债"的双跷跷板结构。美元成为世界利益博弈的核心。2012年,美元进入第三个"17年大周期升浪"和临近"5年升值小周期",世界由此进入"美元升/全球资源资产贬"的格局之中。     

现代性与现代中国文学思潮史

从20世纪90年代开始,现代性理论受到文学研究界的普遍关注,它为现代中国文学研究提供了新的理论工具.从现代性角度研究现代中国文学思潮,避免了创作方法论的长期影响,开辟了中国现代文学研究的新视野.在现代性理论的观照下,现代中国文学主潮由启蒙主义文学和革命古典主义文学构成,这与现代性与现代民族国家的双重历史任务具有内在的一致性.     

新世纪世界农业的发展趋势

通过对世界农业发展历史的考察和对有关资料的研究分析,认为:世界农业将朝着商品化、全球化、集约化、信息化、科学化、多元化、产业化、健康化、生态化和非农化方向发展。