Comparison of the Historic Recycling Risk for BSE in Three European Countries by Calculating the Basic Reproduction Ratio R0

A deterministic model of BSE transmission is used to calculate the R(0) values for specific years of the BSE epidemics in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), and Switzerland (CH). In all three countries, the R(0) values decreased below 1 after the introduction of a ban on feeding meat and bone meal (MBM) to ruminants around the 1990s. A variety of additional measures against BSE led to further decrease of R(0) to about 0.06 in the years around 1998. The calculated R(0) values were consistent with the observations made on the surveillance results for UK, but were partially conflicting with the surveillance results for NL and CH. There was evidence for a dependency of the BSE epidemic in NL and CH from an infection source not considered in the deterministic transmission model. Imports of MBM and feed components can be an explanation for this discrepancy, and the importance of imports for these observations is discussed.     

案例指导制度的价值探究及理性定位——基于宪政中国发展中制度借鉴的视角

案例指导制度是中国在立足本土法文化传统的基础上,借鉴、吸收西方法治及宪政文化中的合理因子而在司法领域中进行的一次尝试.就应然价值而言,它有利于统一法律适用标准,有效指导下级法院审判工作,进而维护司法公正和效率,树立法律权威,同时能够积极推进司法实践与司法理论研究的良性发展.但当前,我国所要确立的是区别于英美法系判例法制度的中国特色的案例指导制度,未来该制度能够实际发挥怎样的作用还受制于多方面的社会因素,面临着许多现实困难.就正处于转型期间的中国而言,我们必须确立由最高人民法院主导,地方各级人民法院参与的案例指导制度模式,并逐步完善与案例指导制度相配套的司法制度等.     

取得时效制度在我国的设立

本文重点阐述了在我国设立取得时效制度的价值意义,并在此基础上,提出了相关的制度构想,希冀对构筑我国民法典中的取得时效制度有所裨益。     

Point and confidence interval estimates for a global maximum via extreme value theory

The aim of this paper is to provide some practical aspects of point and interval estimates of the global maximum of a function using extreme value theory. Consider a real-valued function f:D→? defined on a bounded interval D such that f is either not known analytically or is known analytically but has rather a complicated analytic form. We assume that f possesses a global maximum attained, say, at u*∈D with maximal value x*=max _u  f(u)?f(u*). The problem of seeking the optimum of a function which is more or less unknown to the observer has resulted in the development of a large variety of search techniques. In this paper we use the extreme-value approach as appears in Dekkers et al. [A moment estimator for the index of an extreme-value distribution, Ann. Statist. 17 (1989), pp. 1833–1855] and de Haan [Estimation of the minimum of a function using order statistics, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 76 (1981), pp. 467–469]. We impose some Lipschitz conditions on the functions being investigated and through repeated simulation-based samplings, we provide various practical interpretations of the parameters involved as well as point and interval estimates for x*.     

The value of information in anticipated utility theory

A well-known property of expected utility theory is that the value of information is nonnegative. Given the widespread dissatisfaction with the expected utility hypothesis, a natural question to ask is whether competing theories of choice preserve this property. This article considers one widely discussed alternative to expected utility, anticipated utility theory. We show that, like expected utility, the anticipated value of perfect information is always nonnegative. The value of imperfect information, however, may be negative, though the precise valuation of information depends upon whether the reduction of compound lotteries axiom is used to derive the anticipated utility functional.I am indebted to Edi Karni, Peter Wakker, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on earlier versions of this article. They are of course in no way responsible for errors or obscurities in the present version.     

论价值与正义

正义是人类社会的永恒价值追求，其主要问题是社会的基本结构，其本质目的就是利益的合理划分。文章旨在运用价值作为分析评判社会制度规约下的社会合作之利益划分正义与否的标准和依据。     

Estimating the Upper Support Point in Deconvolution

Abstract.  We consider estimation of the upper boundary point F ⁻¹ (1) of a distribution function F with finite upper boundary or 'frontier' in deconvolution problems, primarily focusing on deconvolution models where the noise density is decreasing on the positive halfline. Our estimates are based on the (non-parametric) maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of F . We show that (1) is asymptotically never too small. If the convolution kernel has bounded support the estimator (1) can generally be expected to be consistent. In this case, we establish a relation between the extreme value index of F and the rate of convergence of (1) to the upper support point for the 'boxcar' deconvolution model. If the convolution density has unbounded support, (1) can be expected to overestimate the upper support point. We define consistent estimators , for appropriately chosen vanishing sequences ( β _n ) and study these in a particular case.     

公民社会构建与中国现代化的关系略论

公民社会就是“公民”作为社会主体的社会。公民社会与其他社会形态相区别的内在规定性就在于社会主体的“公民身份”（Citizenship）上。公民社会的这一表述如同政治社会、经济社会一样，代表的是整体性社会中的一个功能领域，这个功能领域强调的是社会的自组织性。它所提倡的自由、平等、分权的现代性价值精神，是现代化进程中的必然趋势。     

网络嵌入价值视角下信息中介服务进入决策

研究了信息中介的服务与决策者构成的复杂网络之间的相互作用,提出了网络嵌入价值VNE,同时考虑网络收益与中介收益标度既可用于评价服务对于网络的价值,也可为信息中介决策提供依据.在中介和网络间建立了一个博弈模型,得到了中介服务能生存于网络中的条件.在此基础上定义了信息中介的网络嵌入价值,从网络的视角考察了中介服务进入市场的成本C和价格P的决策.最后比较了ER网络(随机网络)与SF网络(无标度网络)这两种不同网络结构下网络嵌入价值与决策的差异.     

试论作为中国审美形态的"神妙"

按照普适性、统摄性和流传性的原则来确定最基本的审美形态,神妙是源远流长且在当代仍具有价值和活力的基本审美形态之一。这一审美形态的特点在于神与妙浑然一体,相映生辉,共同体现了对具体的有形的事物的超越,具有直觉体悟的内审美性和内在自由性,表现主体的精神和艺术的造诣所达到的出神入化的美妙境界,具有妙不可言、深不可测的审美特点。神妙作为中国独有的审美形态,源自于儒道两家对道的体悟和认识,并在中国古代丰富的艺术和审美实践中生成。