Pooled Panel Unit Root Tests and the Effect of Past Initialization

This paper analyzes the role of initialization when testing for a unit root in panel data, an issue that has received surprisingly little attention in the literature. In fact, most studies assume that the initial value is either zero or bounded. As a response to this, the current paper considers a model in which the initialization is in the past, which is shown to have several distinctive features that makes it attractive, even in comparison to the common time series practice of making the initial value a draw from its unconditional distribution under the stationary alternative. The results have implications not only for theory, but also for applied work. In particular, and in contrast to the time series case, in panels the effect of the initialization need not be negative but can actually lead to improved test performance.     

On conditional risk estimation considering model risk

Usually, parametric procedures used for conditional variance modelling are associated with model risk. Model risk may affect the volatility and conditional value at risk estimation process either due to estimation or misspecification risks. Hence, non-parametric artificial intelligence models can be considered as alternative models given that they do not rely on an explicit form of the volatility. In this paper, we consider the least-squares support vector regression (LS-SVR), weighted LS-SVR and Fixed size LS-SVR models in order to handle the problem of conditional risk estimation taking into account issues of model risk. A simulation study and a real application show the performance of proposed volatility and VaR models.     

艺术画作授权产业价值链分析

创意产业的蓬勃发展,创意经济的持续增长,创意潜能的有效激发离不开创意产业链的形成和完善。本文选择创意产业中的典型——艺术画作授权产业为研究对象,探讨了艺术画作授权产业的经济和社会价值,以及该产业链的构成。分析艺术画作授权产业链的价值增值和传递,是对创意产业链研究的有益尝试。     

邓小平的文化品格与文化价值

邓小平在长期的革命、建设和改革实践中,留下了珍贵的文化遗产.与时俱进、开拓进取的创新意识;开放包容、博采众长的开明态度;热爱祖国、振兴中华的高尚情怀;诚信为本、厚德载物的道德理念;崇尚科学、重视人才的理性精神--这就是他富有个性的文化品格.当前,学习和研究邓小平伟大的文化品格,对于弘扬民族精神、实现中华民族的伟大复兴,具有十分重要的意义.     

The red and the black: China’s social credit experiment as a total test environment

China's social credit system is an unusually explicit case where technology is used by multiple actors to turn human behavior into a test object on behalf of the state's goal of modifying the larger social environment, making it an intriguing setting for thinking about the new sociology of testing. This article considers how China's search for a usable “credit” score to both allocate financial resources and explicitly measure a citizen's trustworthiness creates an emergent experimental system of governance similar to, yet not quite captured by, the kinds of experimental processes observed in literature on the platform as a form of market-based governance. As a site where “seeing like a state” and “seeing like a market” converge, the social credit system is a vantage point for observing the changing relationship between moral and economic domains in an era of digital platforms. The article highlights the experimental quality of the system and its emerging system of governance structured around reward and punishment and argues that strategic ambiguity, institutionalized through the affordances of digital platforms, is an important part of the design of this large-scale social experiment.     

动画作品对青少年价值观的影响研究

在发达的多媒体时代,青少年价值观教育需要更为合适的形式,而动画作品或多或少影响着少年儿童,对他们的价值观与行为产生影响。借助手段-目的链理论（MEC）,采用硬性阶梯与焦点小组访谈法,对290名青少年进行调查,分析了动画作品对青少年的影响。研究提取了23个要素作为动画的属性层、结果层及价值层并构建了三者间的综合关联矩阵,绘制了动画作品影响青少年的层级价值图,探讨动画作品应怎样持续发挥其价值观引导作用。     

以系统化思维高质量推进江苏全面深化改革

以系统化思维高质量推进江苏全面深化改革,有利于江苏在全面深化改革中一体贯彻新发展理念、聚力培育发展新动能、统筹推进高质量发展。改革开放40年来,江苏锐意改革、大胆创新、勇立潮头。具体表现为：经济发展体制障碍不断突破,经济综合实力稳步提升;区域协调发展机制逐步构建,区域空间布局日渐优化;社会治理体制创新积极推进,社会治理水平明显提高;生态文明体制改革日益深化,“美丽江苏”建设成效初显。同时,江苏目前在发展方式转变、经济结构优化、增长动力转换等方面仍然存在不少问题和障碍。今后一段时间,江苏应站在更高起点系统谋划和推进各项改革。要着眼走在高质量发展前列,深化经济体制改革;要着眼提高保障和改善民生水平,创新社会治理格局;要着眼经济和社会事业发展全局,完善人才发展制度;要着眼人与大自然是生命共同体,推进生态文明建设。     

关于做好电视成就报道的思考

文章着重探讨了电视成就报道的创新方法,在理念上提出以个性化的受众为中心、结合电视传播特点、贴近工作实际;具体方法上则提出以四个方面为突破口,即:通过个人化的视角,贴近生活;用理性思维诠释热点;用情节化的叙述,加深人们的理解;调动多种电视表现手段,增强视觉冲击力.     

Assessing the market values of soccer players – a robust analysis of data from German 1. and 2. Bundesliga

The paper examines to what extent a player's market value depends on his skills. Therefore, a data set covering 28 performance measures and the market values of about 493 players from 1. and 2. German Bundesliga is analysed. Applying robust analysis techniques, we are able to robustly estimate market values of soccer players. The results show (1) that there are significantly underrated and overrated players and (2) that a player's affiliation to a certain team may contribute to his market value. We conclude that a club's reputation affects the market values of its players and that star players are in tendency overrated.     

‘Scarier than another storm’: values at risk in the mapping and insuring of US floodplains

How do people respond to the ways in which insurance mediates environmental risks? Socio‐cultural risk research has characterized and analyzed the experiential dimension of risk, but has yet to focus on insurance, which is a key institution shaping how people understand and relate to risk. Insurance not only assesses and communicates risk; it also economizes it, making the problem on the ground not just one of risk, but also of value. This article addresses these issues with an investigation of the social life of the flood insurance rate map, the central technology of the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), as it grafts a new landscape of ‘value at risk’ onto the physical and social world of New York City in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Like other risk technologies, ubiquitous in modern societies as decision‐making and planning tools, the map disseminates information about value and risk in order to tame uncertainty and enable prudent action oriented toward the future. However, drawing together interview, ethnographic, and documentary data, I find that for its users on the ground, the map does not simply measure ‘value at risk’ in ways that produce clear strategies for protecting property values from flooding. Instead, it puts values‐beyond simply the financial worth of places‐at risk, as well as implicates past, present, and future risks beyond simply flooding. By informing and enlarging the stakes of what needs protecting, and from what, I argue that plural and interacting ‘values at risk’ shape how people live with and respond to environmental risks that are mediated by insurance technologies.