Quantile Regression for Location‐Scale Time Series Models with Conditional Heteroscedasticity

This paper considers quantile regression for a wide class of time series models including autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models with asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity errors. The classical mean‐variance models are reinterpreted as conditional location‐scale models so that the quantile regression method can be naturally geared into the considered models. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the quantile regression estimator is established in location‐scale time series models under mild conditions. In the application of this result to ARMA‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, more primitive conditions are deduced to obtain the asymptotic properties. For illustration, a simulation study and a real data analysis are provided.     

网络环境下顾客参与品牌价值共创模式与机制研究——以小米手机为例

随着网络信息技术的发展,顾客通过互联网平台参与产品开发与更新、主导网络口碑传播等方式,已成为品牌价值创造的重要主体,深刻改变着品牌管理模式.本文以小米手机为例,借助扎根理论研究方法,对相关质性资料进行内容分析,得到如下结论:小米手机品牌的快速成长得益于其建立了契合互联网“专注、极致、快、信任”的企业文化和团队理念,将产品定位为发烧友而生的年轻消费者群体,积极进行线上、线下交流互动,将顾客培育成为粉丝和发烧友,引导顾客积极参与产品开发、更新以及口碑传播,从而实现小米手机品牌的快速成长.在此基础上,通过理论检验和命题发展,总结出顾客参与网络品牌价值共创的文化机制、产品机制、互动机制、参与机制、口碑机制及其相应命题.     

The Value of Information in Decision‐Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa

Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced‐based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5–21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria‐transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs.     

Estimation of the parameter of a dynamically selected population for two subclasses of the exponential family

We introduce the problem of estimation of the parameters of a dynamically selected population in an infinite sequence of random variables and provide its application in the statistical inference based on record values from a non stationary scheme. We develop unbiased estimation of the parameters of the dynamically selected population and evaluate the risk of the estimators. We provide comparisons with natural estimators and obtain asymptotic results. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of the results using real data.     

Cumulative correspondence analysis using orthogonal polynomials

Taguchi's statistic has long been known to be a more appropriate measure of association of the dependence for ordinal variables compared to the Pearson chi-squared statistic. Therefore, there is some advantage in using Taguchi's statistic in the correspondence analysis context when a two-way contingency table consists at least of an ordinal categorical variable. The aim of this paper, considering the contingency table with two ordinal categorical variables, is to show a decomposition of Taguchi's index into linear, quadratic and higher-order components. This decomposition has been developed using Emerson's orthogonal polynomials. Moreover, two case studies to explain the methodology have been analyzed.     

“密切联系群众”的本质与价值——从马克思主义经典作家的视角看

密切联系群众是工人阶级政党执政的优势。马克思主义经典作家善于密切联系群众的思想是我们深入研究和实践群众观点、群众路线的重要出发点。马克思、恩格斯、列宁等关于党的政策与群众需求相一致、党的组织与群众组织相协调、党的理论引导与群众的自觉意识相和谐、党的实践与群众监督相结合的思想内涵,对我们开展群众路线教育实践活动,加强党风廉政建设,进而提高党的凝聚力、战斗力、领导力具有重要启示。     

医学专业毕业生择业观影响因素分析及其对策研究——以内蒙古民族大学医学院为例

通过对临床医学、护理学专业2010届120名本科毕业生的书面问卷调查,对少数民族高等院校医学毕业生的择业观影响因素、择业期望值、求职成功制约要素等进行分析,发现了少数民族高等院校医学毕业生的择业观呈现多元化;择业期望值脱离现实需要;择业心理复杂多样;就业心态存在城市情结;偏执心理、攀比心理、自卑心理等负面心理因素影响择业成功的事实,研究并提出了应对上述问题的对策。     

论坚持“以德为先”选用干部

我们党选用干部标准的思想经历了从毛泽东提出的＂德才兼备＂到胡锦涛明确提出的＂德才兼备、以德为先＂的历史的、理论的发展演变过程。从宏观上和战略上看,坚持＂以德为先＂选用干部,在理论层面和现实需求层面上都具有重大的价值意义。要使＂以德为先＂用人标准不致于流于形式,就必须健全完善与时俱进的党员干部＂德＂之衡量标准。     

怨恨论——从尼采到舍勒

尼采提出＂基督教的爱理念＂为最精巧的＂怨恨之花＂的断言,舍勒承接并驳斥该断言,提出现代仁爱才是真正的奴隶道德的起义。分析并比较两位哲人的怨恨论,他们对怨恨情感造成价值位移这一看法是一致的,该问题上的分歧在于对怨恨所颠覆的对象作出不同判断,这一分歧源于他们各自对于生命及生命价值的不同理解。     

从楚山禅师坐化看佛教死亡超越理论的当代价值

楚山绍琦禅师是明代四川著名高僧,临济宗传人。他的教化与行持紧扣禅宗"直指心性"的宗旨,以"识心为本"的心性禅著称。他坐化圆寂,肉身不坏流存后世。其所言所行以及离世方式展示了佛教的死亡超越理论,对佛教自身社会形象的定位和提升有深刻启示,并对当代临终关怀、安乐死等诸多生命伦理难题的应对具有启发价值。