陈垣与傅斯年治史异同论

陈垣和傅斯年作为中国二十世纪的两位史学大师,其治学风格有异有同。他们一重“土法”,一用“洋法”,但都以史料为治史的基点,以发扬民族文化为治史的理念,留下了丰富的史学遗产。     

资金时间价值因素对延迟策略选择的影响研究

研究资金时间价值和不同的产品价值构成对延迟策略选择的影响问题. 首先定义了资金 时间价值的概念, 并按产品价值构成划分了产品的类型, 明确了延迟策略的种类. 然后建立了 不同延迟策略下, 在考虑资金时间价值因素和不考虑资金时间价值因素时的产品成本模型. 在 此基础上, 针对不同价值构成的产品, 分析其最优的延迟策略, 说明了资金时间价值因素对延 迟策略选择的影响. 从而为企业更好地利用延迟策略降低成本, 增强竞争力提供了理论基础.     

Qui recrute et comment ? L’expertise économique des professionnels de l’insertion des jeunes

How do job placement specialists acquire knowledge of the markets, and do they put it to use? At deliberative committee meetings on the funding of youth integration projects, we observed the construction of a shared representation of the workings of local-level job markets. Integration professionals develop their economic expertise primarily from two sources to which they are professionally close: the young jobseekers themselves and the vocational training professionals. The unequal distribution of economic expertise is intensified by structural differences in the capacity to put it to use for each of the deliberative stakeholders.     

Disembodied politics: commitment and formal distance in Rancière*

Abstract

In light of the theme and concerns of the present collection of essays, we may ask whether ‘distance in general’, and ‘critical distance in particular’ (Fredric Jameson), has truly disappeared with postmodernity. Proposing an immediate and interruptive political engagement with local issues, Jacques Rancière’s articulation of political mobilisation does seem to confirm this claim. Upon further inspection, however, his emancipatory politics repeat the same mistake of valuing an abstract universal at the expense of a concrete particular, however paradoxical this may seem at first sight. The present article develops this thesis in three moments. On the first hand, it highlights Rancière’s notion of conflict as being institutive of politics. Secondly, it connects this ‘sensible’, and Rancière’s understanding of politics as being aesthetic, to Kant’s ‘Transcendental Aesthetics’. The French author sees in the leading section of the first Critique the grounding possibility of (I) freeing up time and space within the social realm; (II) the representation of a common political surface that can be reshaped; (III) political equality; (IV) emancipation. The last section shows how this recourse to the transcendental subject in Rancière’s politics follows and embraces a traditional position in the history of philosophy whereby identity is denigrated at the profit of a disembodied universalism.     

Adaptive designs for pivotal trials: discussion points from the PSI Adaptive Design Expert Group

The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) is currently preparing a guideline on 'methodological issues in confirmatory clinical trials with flexible design and analysis plan'. PSI (Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry) sponsored a meeting of pharmaceutical statisticians with an interest in the area to share experiences and identify potential opportunities for adaptive designs in late-phase clinical drug development. This article outlines the issues raised, resulting discussions and consensus views reached. Adaptive designs have potential utility in late-phase clinical development. Sample size re-estimation seems to be valuable and widely accepted, but should be made independent of the observed treatment effect where possible. Where unblinding is necessary, careful consideration needs to be given to preserving the integrity of the trial. An area where adaptive designs can be particularly beneficial is to allow dose selection in pivotal trials via adding/dropping treatment arms; for example, combining phase II and III of the drug development program. The more adaptations made during a late-phase clinical trial, the less likely that the clinical trial would be considered as a confirmatory trial. In all cases it would be advisable to consult with regulatory agencies at the protocol design stage. All involved should remain open to scientifically valid opportunities to improve drug development.     

关于加强硕士研究生入学考试复试工作的若干思考

本文分析了我国研究生招生过程中不重视复试的原因和弊端,并提出了做好研究生招生复试工作的具体措施.     

Assessment of the Gould-Shih procedure for sample size re-estimation

The power of a clinical trial is partly dependent upon its sample size. With continuous data, the sample size needed to attain a desired power is a function of the within-group standard deviation. An estimate of this standard deviation can be obtained during the trial itself based upon interim data; the estimate is then used to re-estimate the sample size. Gould and Shih proposed a method, based on the EM algorithm, which they claim produces a maximum likelihood estimate of the within-group standard deviation while preserving the blind, and that the estimate is quite satisfactory. However, others have claimed that the method can produce non-unique and/or severe underestimates of the true within-group standard deviation. Here the method is thoroughly examined to resolve the conflicting claims and, via simulation, to assess its validity and the properties of its estimates. The results show that the apparent non-uniqueness of the method's estimate is due to an apparently innocuous alteration that Gould and Shih made to the EM algorithm. When this alteration is removed, the method is valid in that it produces the maximum likelihood estimate of the within-group standard deviation (and also of the within-group means). However, the estimate is negatively biased and has a large standard deviation. The simulations show that with a standardized difference of 1 or less, which is typical in most clinical trials, the standard deviation from the combined samples ignoring the groups is a better estimator, despite its obvious positive bias.     

Sample size re-estimation for survival data in clinical trials with an adaptive design

In clinical trials with survival data, investigators may wish to re-estimate the sample size based on the observed effect size while the trial is ongoing. Besides the inflation of the type-I error rate due to sample size re-estimation, the method for calculating the sample size in an interim analysis should be carefully considered because the data in each stage are mutually dependent in trials with survival data. Although the interim hazard estimate is commonly used to re-estimate the sample size, the estimate can sometimes be considerably higher or lower than the hypothesized hazard by chance. We propose an interim hazard ratio estimate that can be used to re-estimate the sample size under those circumstances. The proposed method was demonstrated through a simulation study and an actual clinical trial as an example. The effect of the shape parameter for the Weibull survival distribution on the sample size re-estimation is presented.     

河北省大学生自主创业政策法规研究

通473件扶持高校毕业生创业法律、法规和河北省地方政府制定的政策法规的分析梳理,发现现有法规政策在创业培训、企业设立、资金扶持、税收优惠、人事管理等方面对大学毕业生创业起到了积极作用,但个别制度也存在体系化不强、自身适法性差、制度存在棚架效应等问题,提出要加强法律制度体系建设,完善出台制度实施细则,加大法律制度系统化力度,建立宣传贯彻服务体系,消除法律制度棚架效应,增强时效性等措施。     

From the state to the family or to the market? Consequences of reduced residential eldercare in Sweden

This article analyses the changing roles of the state, family and market in providing care for older people in Sweden, in relation to Scandinavian welfare ideals of universalism and de‐familisation. Since 2000 every fourth residential care bed has disappeared and the increase in homecare services has not compensated for the decline. Instead family care (defined here as help from adult children and other non‐cohabiting family or friends) has increased in all social groups: help by daughters mainly among older people with shorter education and help by sons among those highly educated. Use of privately purchased services has also increased but continues to play a marginal role. Family care remains more common among older people with less education whereas privately purchased services are more common among those with higher education. This dualisation of care challenges universalism, and working‐class daughters continue to be most affected by eldercare cutbacks.