中国能源消耗减物质化分析

1980-2004年中国能源消耗(生活消耗除外)出现了较大波动,本文运用完全分解模型研究了能源消耗的减物质化过程。结果表明,1980-2004年累计节能量为80790万吨标准煤,同时受国家宏观调控政策的影响,1980-2001年中国能源消耗减物质化处于波动之中,节能缺口幅度大致在1.0之内频繁波动(绝对值),2001年以后中国能源消耗减物质化出现了剧变,节能缺口急剧下降,实际节能率远远低于潜在节能率,能源供应出现了紧张局面。     

Inference for general parametric functions in box‐Cox‐type transformation models

The authors propose a simple but general method of inference for a parametric function of the Box‐Cox‐type transformation model. Their approach is built upon the classical normal theory but takes parameter estimation into account. It quickly leads to test statistics and confidence intervals for a linear combination of scaled or unsealed regression coefficients, as well as for the survivor function and marginal effects on the median or other quantité functions of an original response. The authors show through simulations that the finite‐sample performance of their method is often superior to the delta method, and that their approach is robust to mild departures from normality of error distributions. They illustrate their approach with a numerical example.     

李金发与象征主义之滥觞

李金发的诗歌创作实现了民族文化与西方象征主义的融合,其作品最初被作为解构旧文学思想的工具,虽然遭到主流文学中部分文人的攻讦,但终究还是被作为象征主义代表纳入新文学体秩序之中.李金发的变异象征主义本是蕴涵着反现代化的现代性,然而在1930年代至1940年代不断变化着的社会文化和外部局势主导下,最终也不得不以牺牲自己所追求的艺术生命而依附于革命化和现代化,从而销匿于新的文学秩序之中.     

An alternative estimator for multiple characteristics in PPS sampling

The problem considered relates to large-scale sample surveys. A new estimator of population total for the characteristics that are poorly correlated with the selection probabilities has been developed for the PPSWR sampling scheme. The relative efficiency of the proposed estimator has been studied under a super-population model. A numerical investigation into the performance of the estimator has also been made.     

Estimating powers of the generalized variance under the Pitman closeness criterion

For estimating powers of the generalized variance under a multivariate normal distribution with an unknown mean, the inadmissibility of the closest affine equivariant estimator is shown for the Pitman closeness criterion.     

On Integer Programming Approaches for Morphological Template Decomposition Problems in Computer Vision

In morphological image processing and analysis, a template or structuringelement is applied to an image. Often savings in computation time and abetter fit to the given computer architecture can be achieved by using thetechnique of template decomposition. Researchers have written a multitude ofpapers on finding such decompositions for special classes of templates.Justifying recent integer programming approaches to the morphologicaltemplate decomposition problem in its general form, this paper proves theNP-completeness of this problem.     

Minimax-variance L- and R-estimators of location

We consider the problem of minimax-variance, robust estimation of a location parameter, through the use of L- and R-estimators. We derive an easily checked necessary condition for L-estimation to be minimax, and a related sufficient condition for R-estimation to be minimax. Those cases in the literature in which L-estimation is known not to be minimax, and those in which R-estimation is minimax, are derived as consequences of these conditions. New classes of examples are given in each case. As well, we answer a question of Scholz (1974), who showed essentially that the asymptotic variance of an R-estimator never exceeds that of an L-estimator, if both are efficient at the same strongly unimodal distribution. Scholz raised the question of whether or not the assumption of strong unimodality could be dropped. We answer this question in the negative, theoretically and by examples. In the examples, the minimax property fails both for L-estimation and for R-estimation, but the variance of the L-estimator, as the distribution of the observation varies over the given neighbourhood, remains unbounded. That of the R-estimator is unbounded.     

流动人口的自营性收入不平等与工资性收入不平等

利用2005年全国1％人口抽样调查的子样本数据以及2012年流动人口动态监测调查数据,研究了各可观测因素对自营者和受雇者收入分布的解释能力存在何种差异,及其在2005-2012年间所发生的变化.考虑到就业方式选择的内生性问题,文章首先采用转换回归模型对自营者和受雇者的收入方程进行了估计.在此基础上,进一步根据基于回归分析的分解分析方法,利用Shapley分解过程对自营者收入的Gini系数和受雇者收入的Gini系数分别进行了分解分析.结果显示,对于流动人口而言,收入分配过程中的制度性障碍正在减少.     

脉冲响应函数下的我国货币需求变动与决定

基于V A R模型的脉冲响应函数法和预期方差分解法,分析了我国2000年至2013年期间的货币需求与相关经济因素之间的动态影响特征。研究表明狭义货币、广义货币分别与相关的经济变量存在长期的均衡关系。狭义货币、广义货币对GDP的冲击分别呈现抑制效应、对SV的随机冲击主要呈现正效应、对R的随机冲击主要呈现抑制效应、对CPI的冲击呈现正效应和抑制效应交叉出现的现象。狭义货币、广义货币新息冲击对其自身预测均方误差的贡献度最大。新息冲击对狭义货币预测均方误差的贡献依次为：一年期定期存款名义利率（R）、沪深两市A股总市值（SV）、国内生产总值（GDP）、消费者物价指数（CPI）。新息冲击对广义货币预测均方误差的贡献依次为：国内生产总值（GDP ）、消费者物价指数（CPI ）、一年期定期存款名义利率（R ）、沪深两市A股总市值（S V ）。根据实证结论,得出相关经济变量对货币需求的影响,并据此提出有利于完善货币政策的建议。     

Generalized Sobol sensitivity indices for dependent variables: numerical methods

The hierarchically orthogonal functional decomposition of any measurable function η of a random vector X=(X₁,?…?, X_p) consists in decomposing η(X) into a sum of increasing dimension functions depending only on a subvector of X. Even when X₁,?…?, X_p are assumed to be dependent, this decomposition is unique if the components are hierarchically orthogonal. That is, two of the components are orthogonal whenever all the variables involved in one of the summands are a subset of the variables involved in the other. Setting Y=η(X), this decomposition leads to the definition of generalized sensitivity indices able to quantify the uncertainty of Y due to each dependent input in X [Chastaing G, Gamboa F, Prieur C. Generalized Hoeffding–Sobol decomposition for dependent variables – application to sensitivity analysis. Electron J Statist. 2012;6:2420–2448]. In this paper, a numerical method is developed to identify the component functions of the decomposition using the hierarchical orthogonality property. Furthermore, the asymptotic properties of the components estimation is studied, as well as the numerical estimation of the generalized sensitivity indices of a toy model. Lastly, the method is applied to a model arising from a real-world problem.