重庆民族地区旅游业的定位与发展取向

重庆民族地区具有完好的生态环境,丰富的自然旅游资源,深邃的古文化遗存,绚丽多姿的民族风情等旅游资源优势。21世纪,重庆民族地区旅游业的发展要突出旅游的文化内涵和知识性,坚持可持续发展思想,注意利用现代高新技术,重视旅游人才的培养,以民族文化为依托,开发多种形式的民族文化旅游项目。     

科学院大学的教学优势与发展趋势——以中国科学院大学为例

科学院办大学是基于探索研究型大学与科学院双边合作模式，尝试从科学院系统中走出一条研究型大学的独特发展之路，旨在推进科教融合。作对我国高等教育体制改革的一项探索，中国科学院大学在科研、师资、教学和就业等方面具有明显优势。但在发展过程中，科学院大学与现存高等教育体制的关系还需要理顺，招生规模还需要严格控制，以确保人才培养质量。探究科学院大学的教学优势，旨在发挥其资源优势，深化科教一体化人才培养模式，促进科研与教学的充分融合，实现科学院与大学共同发展的目标，使大学最终与科研机构不再分离——科学院成为大学的科学院，大学成为科学院的大学。     

区域碳锁定的判定研究--以云南省为例

通过建立包括陆地、湿地和海洋的碳承载力、碳超载率的计算模型，采用供需平衡法建立了区域碳锁定时间和趋势的判定模型。以有着“植物王国”和“基因宝库”之称以及水电资源相对丰富的云南省为例，对该省的碳锁定时间、趋势进行了实证研究。实证分析结果显示，云南省自2002年后开始出现了碳锁定现象且趋势越来越严重，若不进行强有力的外界干扰，这种趋势将一直延续下去。结合即使“十一·五”低碳目标的完成也没能减轻云南省碳锁定加剧的趋势，提出把减轻碳超载、控制能源消费总量、提升碳承载力纳入低碳经济发展的目标管理。     

我国环境刑罚轻缓化探析

毋庸置疑,在整个国际社会对环境犯罪处以轻缓刑罚的背景下,我国亦应该对环境刑罚采用轻缓化的原则。诚然,我国的环境刑罚制度与其他国家相比还有许多亟待完善的地方,但这并不妨碍我们在借鉴其他国家先进的立法经验的基础上构建适合我国具体国情的环境刑罚制度。在环境刑罚中要突出自由刑的适用,扩大并完善财产刑的适用,明确财产刑中过于模糊的规定,逐步改善环境犯罪的刑事处罚措施过于单一的缺点和功能上的不足,同时提高对辅助刑罚措施的关注。在环境犯罪方面,在适用传统刑罚措施惩治的基础上配合适用辅助刑罚措施,使我国环境刑罚轻缓化实践不至于成为一纸空谈。     

Parameter identification for the discretely observed geometric fractional Brownian motion

This paper deals with the problem of estimating all the unknown parameters of geometric fractional Brownian processes from discrete observations. The estimation procedure is built upon the marriage of the quadratic variation and the maximum likelihood approach. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are provided. Moveover, we compare our derived method with the approach proposed by Misiran et al. [Fractional Black-Scholes models: complete MLE with application to fractional option pricing. In International conference on optimization and control; Guiyang, China; 2010. p. 573–586.], namely the complete maximum likelihood estimation. Simulation studies confirm theoretical findings and illustrate that our methodology is efficient and reliable. To show how to apply our approach in realistic contexts, an empirical study of Chinese financial market is also presented.     

Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models

Time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility are widely used to study macroeconomic and financial data. These models are almost exclusively estimated using Bayesian methods. A common practice is to focus on prior distributions that themselves depend on relatively few hyperparameters such as the scaling factor for the prior covariance matrix of the residuals governing time variation in the parameters. The choice of these hyperparameters is crucial because their influence is sizeable for standard sample sizes. In this article, we treat the hyperparameters as part of a hierarchical model and propose a fast, tractable, easy-to-implement, and fully Bayesian approach to estimate those hyperparameters jointly with all other parameters in the model. We show via Monte Carlo simulations that, in this class of models, our approach can drastically improve on using fixed hyperparameters previously proposed in the literature. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

研究生培养政策70年:演变逻辑与发展走向

新中国成立70年来，我国研究生培养政策经历了初创起步、推进发展、稳步延伸和调适深化四个发展阶段。在演进逻辑上，凸显出国家需求与市场诉求的权衡性、培养目标注重个人成就与社会发展价值的双维导向、培养质量保障体系趋向质量和效益二维共进等特征。研究生培养政策是个动态发展系统。随着时代的发展和变迁，应在政策制定和发展的动力机制、政策目标的价值导向、政策执行的监督评价及保障决策等方面作出适时调整。     

基于在线评论数据的产品需求趋势挖掘

随着经济水平的提高和物质生活的丰富，消费者的需求变化也越来越快。能否迎合市场需求的变化是企业产品成功的关键。随着社交媒体的发展，消费者为了分享购物体验发表了许多在线评论信息，其中蕴含着消费者的需求变化。本文在产品特征提取和属性情感分析的基础上，构建了垃圾评论识别模型。然后，利用时间序列分析模型预测下阶段的产品属性关注度和情感计算。最后结合历史数据的变化趋势，分析产品属性的重要性和市场满意情况。利用汽车论坛上的汽车评论数据对本文提出的研究模型进行了验证。研究结果可以为企业制定营销策略以及产品改进与创新提供决策支持。     

Prevalence of Childhood Sexual Abuse in China: A Meta-Analysis

The objective of the current study was to explore the estimated prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in China. We conducted a meta-analysis that used the data from 36 articles. A total of 125 independent samples and 131,734 participants were included. The results revealed no significant difference in the prevalence of childhood sexual abuse between Chinese men (9.1%) and women (8.9%). The prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in studies from mainland areas was significantly higher than that from Hong Kong/Taiwan. The estimated prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in China also differed according to the definition of child sexual abuse, data collection method, year of data collection, and the mean age of participants at the time of assessment.