胡适文明观论析

本文比较系统地评述了胡适关于文明内涵的界定和中西近代民族文化意识的比较，进一步阐述胡适建立在比较、反省基础上的再造中国现代文明的思想，指出这是一种开放的、主动汇入世界现代文明潮流的有效途径。因此，胡适文明观在我国现代化发展中仍不失其意义。     

Local polynomial estimation of Poisson intensities in the presence of reporting delays

Summary.  The system for monitoring suicides in Hong Kong has considerable delays in reporting as the cause of death needs to be determined by a coroner's investigation. However, timely estimates of suicide rates are desirable to assist in the formulation of public health policies. This motivated us to develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the intensity function of a Poisson process in the presence of reporting delays. We give closed form estimators of the Poisson intensity and the delay distribution, conduct simulation studies to evaluate the method proposed and derive their asymptotic properties. The method proposed is applied to estimate the intensity of suicide in Hong Kong.     

世界教育信息化发展及其经验

教育信息化是战后教育发展的最重要发展方向之一。世界教育信息化的发展经历了发端、进一步推进和迅速高涨的发展时期;在每一个阶段各国推进教育信息化的政策、措施和特点等方面都呈现出一些独自的特征。总结世界各国推进教育信息化的经验对我国教育信息化的发展具有重要的启发意义。     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

新课程与英语课堂教学改革

英语课堂教学改革与创新的重点是要让学生的学习产生实质性的变化,提倡自主、探索与合作的学习方式,逐步转变以教师为中心、课堂为中心和书本为中心的局面,促进学生创新意识和实践能力的发展。     

入世对中国传统文化的冲击与对策

如今中国加入世贸组织 ,中外文化在一种更加复杂和多元化的时代更深入地“亲密接触”已是有目共睹的事实 ,不同文化之间的相互影响、渗透甚至融合十分必要。因此 ,入世后中国传统文化究竟如何实现面向世界、面向未来、面向现代化的转变是我们急待解决的问题。解决这个问题的最佳解决方案是既应中西融会 ,但更要立足本土。     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

网络环境下的研究性学习

利用网络开展研究性学习具有很大的优势,探讨网络研究性学习能力的培养、组织与实施,以及网络研究性学习的评价对提高学生的综合素质有重要作用。     

领导愿景与企业绩效关系研究

领导者的前瞻性愿景对组织发展具有重要作用。本文用访谈和问卷调查的方法对国有和民营企业的领导愿景与企业经营业绩之间的关系进行了探讨。结果发现,领导愿景及愿景共享等因素对企业绩效具有直接影响作用。研究者在此基础上提出了建立共同愿景以及培养和选拔企业愿景式领导的对策和建议。     

上市公司综合评价研究

客观合理地评价上市公司,是投资者、上市公司以及监管机构都非常关注的问题,也是规范发展证券市场的一个重要方面。基于平衡记分卡的原理,提出了我国上市公司的评价指标体系。财务层面的评价采用因子分析法;客户层面、内部层面、学习与创新层面以及综合评价,则是根据模糊三角数的概念构造判断矩阵,利用模糊三角数比较大小的原理进行排序。