防疫救灾的社会自组织建设与韧性培育

从“社会脆弱性”视角看.武汉爆发的疫情因社会的存在方式而传播,“封城”等防控措施对切断人际传播、控制疫情具有积极作用.但在某种程度上也会伤及社会本身,呈现“疫情-社会”的存亡悖论。防疫救灾要依赖社会的活力被调动起来,防疫又会在某种程度上伤及社会,构成了两难困境。通过各种途径提升培育国民自我管理、自我服务等社会组织能力能够有效减轻传染病疫情对社会的伤害,培植社会韧性,使社会本身能够以主动方式在维护自身的时候战胜疫情灾害。     

A Bayesian Method to Mine Spatial Data Sets to Evaluate the Vulnerability of Human Beings to Catastrophic Risk

Vulnerability of human beings exposed to a catastrophic disaster is affected by multiple factors that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional approach to vulnerability assessment, based on the aggregate‐area method and unsupervised learning, cannot incorporate spatial information; thus, vulnerability can be only roughly assessed. In this article, we propose Bayesian network (BN) and spatial analysis techniques to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings. In our approach, spatial analysis is leveraged to preprocess the data; for example, kernel density analysis (KDA) and accumulative road cost surface modeling (ARCSM) are employed to quantify the influence of geofeatures on vulnerability and relate such influence to spatial distance. The knowledge‐ and data‐based BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of factors, including those extracted by KDA and ARCSM to model vulnerability uncertainty. We also consider the model's uncertainty and use the Bayesian model average and Occam's Window to average the multiple models obtained by our approach to robust prediction of the risk and vulnerability. We compare our approach with other probabilistic models in the case study of seismic risk and conclude that our approach is a good means to mining spatial data sets for evaluating vulnerability.     

Component Criticality in Failure Cascade Processes of Network Systems

In this work, specific indicators are used to characterize the criticality of components in a network system with respect to their contribution to failure cascade processes. A realistic‐size network is considered as reference case study. Three different models of cascading failures are analyzed, differing both on the failure load distribution logic and on the cascade triggering event. The criticality indicators are compared to classical measures of topological centrality to identify the one most characteristic of the cascade processes considered.     

PPP模式下项目型企业脆弱性研究述评

沿着“脆弱性内涵-形成机理-扩散机理-评估预警”思路，对企业脆弱性、项目型企业脆弱性、PPP模式下项目型企业脆弱性的现有文献进行分类归纳并对三者的联系与区别进行详细述评。研究发现，项目型企业脆弱性形成与扩散机理研究的缺乏制约了项目型企业脆弱性评估与预警的研究进展，影响PPP模式下的研究基础。此外，归纳并提出项目型企业脆弱性形成机理、扩散机理相应的理论及数学模型，并对PPP模式下项目型企业脆弱性的研究作展望。     

Opposing the toxic apartheid: The painted veil of the COVID‐19 pandemic,race and racism

This article is a personal reflection of how the coronavirus exposes ‘shocking’ levels of racism against us, and our vulnerability as Chinese women living in Britain. By reflecting our experiences of verbal and physical race‐based violence connected to coronavirus, we explore the fluidity of our racial identities, the taken‐for‐granted racial stereotypes and white privilege, and everyday racism in the UK. Can the vulnerable use vulnerability as an agent to shift the moment of helplessness? We contribute to the uncomfortable yet important debate on racism against Chinese women living in the UK through voicing up our embodied vulnerability as invisible and disempowered subjects to this viral anti‐Chinese racism. This is a form of resistance where we care for the racialized and marginalized others. In doing so, we lift the painted veil of the pandemic, race and racism to collectively combat racial inequalities.     

Validating Resilience and Vulnerability Indices in the Context of Natural Disasters

Due to persistent and serious threats from natural disasters around the globe, many have turned to resilience and vulnerability research to guide disaster preparation, recovery, and adaptation decisions. In response, scholars and practitioners have put forth a variety of disaster indices, based on quantifiable metrics, to gauge levels of resilience and vulnerability. However, few indices are empirically validated using observed disaster impacts and, as a result, it is often unclear which index should be preferred for each decision at hand. Thus, we compare and empirically validate five of the top U.S. disaster indices, including three resilience indices and two vulnerability indices. We use observed disaster losses, fatalities, and disaster declarations from the southeastern United States to empirically validate each index. We find that disaster indices, though thoughtfully substantiated by literature and theoretically persuasive, are not all created equal. While four of the five indices perform as predicted in explaining damages, only three explain fatalities and only two explain disaster declarations as expected by theory. These results highlight the need for disaster indices to clearly state index objectives and structure underlying metrics to support validation of the results based on these goals. Further, policymakers should use index results carefully when developing regional policy or investing in resilience and vulnerability improvement projects.     

基于知识库的应急领域脆弱性指标体系研究

应急事件的演化和应急领域的脆弱性指标变化有着密切关系。大型运作系统核心能力受损后的应急期间,管理者非常关心如何根据动态变化的受损情况把握关键指标因素进行恢复,从而降低应急管理成本。本文基于知识库对应急领域知识结构进行分析,并将层级时序记忆方法引入应急脆弱性指标知识挖掘体系,通过脆弱性态势感知解决了指标约简问题,最后给出了构建知识库的推理机设计和推理算法。本文得到有助于应急管理的结论：基于知识库的脆弱性指标体系可动态分析突发事件和应急管理中蕴涵的知识,有助于对应急事件演化机理准确把握,提高应对效率。     

Incumbent vulnerability and entry in gubernatorial elections: The case of former governors

The vulnerability hypothesis predicts strategic, quality candidates only challenge weak incumbents. House election studies support this hypothesis. State level analyses produce mixed results. We test whether incumbent vulnerability affects the entry of one kind of strategic actor – former governors. Former governors are an ideal test case. Having already served in the state's highest office, they represent the highest quality and perhaps most strategic candidates who run for state office. Our results show that performance in the previous election, one measure of incumbent vulnerability, does not affect former governor entry. However, incumbent vulnerability measured as recent economic performance and number of other quality candidates appearing in a former governor's party primary does affect entry in general elections.     

城市道路复杂网络单元脆弱性实证研究

为分析城市道路复杂网络的拓扑性质及识别脆弱单元,以十堰市为例,选取98条线路和128个节点为样本数据,以交叉口作为节点,相邻节点之间的道路作为边,采用原始法运用复杂网络理论构建基于邻接站点的复杂网络模型,从城市道路网络拓扑结构特性和状态特性的角度阐述了网络单元综合脆弱性及其内在联系,计算其脆弱性指标。结果表明,网络拓扑结构和功能状态共同影响了城市道路复杂网络单元的脆弱性。