慢性贫困的理论透视及其整合

慢性贫困是贫困的“癌症”。慢性贫困何以产生和维持成为目前世界贫困研究领域的前沿问题。当前,有关慢性贫困的理论分析逐渐分化成资源视角和关系视角。资源视角基于传统的贫困理论提出了慢性贫困的生计资本/脆弱性分析框架,关系视角则强调贫困是社会建构,从而聚焦其背后的社会过程和机制。通过对这两种视角的理论梳理,最后提出一个整体性框架对慢性贫困问题进行综合分析。     

Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM)

Quantifying vulnerability to critical infrastructure has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a model that quantifies vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. This article asserts that vulnerability is a condition of the system and it can be quantified using the Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). The model is presented and then applied to a medium-sized clean water system. The model requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to establish value functions and weights, and to assess protection measures of the system. Simulation is used to account for uncertainty in measurement, aggregate expert assessment, and to yield a vulnerability (Omega) density function. Results demonstrate that I-VAM is useful to decisionmakers who prefer quantification to qualitative treatment of vulnerability. I-VAM can be used to quantify vulnerability to other infrastructures, supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), and distributed control systems (DCS).     

Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents

We describe a quantitative methodology to characterize the vulnerability of U.S. urban centers to terrorist attack, using a place-based vulnerability index and a database of terrorist incidents and related human casualties. Via generalized linear statistical models, we study the relationships between vulnerability and terrorist events, and find that our place-based vulnerability metric significantly describes both terrorist incidence and occurrence of human casualties from terrorist events in these urban centers. We also introduce benchmark analytic technologies from applications in toxicological risk assessment to this social risk/vulnerability paradigm, and use these to distinguish levels of high and low urban vulnerability to terrorism. It is seen that the benchmark approach translates quite flexibly from its biological roots to this social scientific archetype.     

Disasters,Queer Narratives,and the News: How Are LGBTI Disaster Experiences Reported by the Mainstream and LGBTI Media?

The media plays a significant role in constructing the public meanings of disasters and influencing disaster management policy. In this article, we investigate how the mainstream and LGBTI media reported—or failed to report—the experiences of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) populations during disasters in Brisbane, Australia and Christchurch, New Zealand. The implications of our work lie within recent disasters research suggesting that marginalized populations—including LGBTI peoples—may experience a range of specific vulnerabilities during disasters on the basis of their social marginality. In this article, we argue that LGBTI experiences were largely absent from mainstream media reporting of the Brisbane floods and Christchurch earthquake of 2011. Media produced by and about the LGBTI community did take steps to redress this imbalance, although with uneven results in terms of inclusivity across that community. We conclude by raising the possibility that the exclusion or absence of queer disaster narratives may contribute to marginality through the media’s construction of disasters as experienced exclusively by heterosexual family groups.     

合并新村脆弱性决定因子识别——基于宁夏永宁县试验区的探索

村庄合并是对传统村镇空间结构与组织形态的重大变革,是村民生计方式与社会结构的重大调整。合并新村建设初期因为居住环境、公用基础设施、公共服务体系不够完善,常表现出一定程度的脆弱性。脆弱性扰动、敏感性、适应力是抽象概念,不可直接观测。通过构建合并新村脆弱性结构方程模型对潜在变量对应的15个观测变量进行估计,有效排除了主观性判断影响,识别出5个重要影响因子。低保水平、政民互动因子是扰动的重要影响因子,养老保险、政策兑现因子是敏感性的重要影响因子,对外交通是适应力的重要影响因子。灰色定权聚类模型克服了结构方程模型能识别重要与次要因子但无法判断影响状态的不足之处。对上述重要影响因子与县域人均GDP指标进行再评估,最终识别出4个脆弱性决定因子,其中低保水平是脆弱性的扰动决定因子,养老保险、政策兑现是脆弱性的敏感性决定因子,县域人均GDP值是脆弱性的适应力决定因子。     

重大突发公共卫生事件冲击下农户的生计水平突变研究

重大突发公共卫生事件给农户生计造成了全面且持久的冲击,一定程度上阻碍了脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴的衔接进程。以新冠肺炎疫情为重大突发公共卫生事件的典型案例,从随机突变论的全新视角,构建疫情前后的农户生计水平演变动力学模型,基于疫情核心区湖北省的465户农村居民调研数据,采用非线性实证分析方法,探寻农户生计脆弱性引致因素及恢复路径。研究发现:以新冠肺炎疫情为代表的突发公共卫生事件可能会诱发农户生计水平的突变,其程度由生计风险决定,且事件发展不同阶段的影响存在差异。疫情冲击下,农户自然资本具有显著的抗风险能力,人力资本与物质资本损失甚微,而金融与社会资本却遭遇重创。疫后农户生计水平的不同源于生计策略差异,务工主导型农户生计脆弱性较高,而农工互补型农户适应力最强。现行的惠农政策对复工复产虽然有效,但农户生计水平恢复具有时滞性。面对突发公共卫生事件,政府应以农户生计策略为导向,制定并完善农户生计风险应急机制,探索差异化、特色化支农助农惠农政策,拓展农户多元化增收渠道,提高农户生计韧性和稳定性,实现生计恢复和可持续发展,以促进脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴的有效衔接。     

Precarious work among young Danish employees - a permanent or transitory condition?

There is broad agreement that precarious work is a growing problem, and that it is highly prevalent among young employees. The financial crisis in 2008 has reinforced the need for knowledge about how precarious work affects young employees. This paper explores how the concept of precarious work may apply differentially to different groups of young people at work and whether this challenges the term ‘transition’, which until now has been one of the core elements within contemporary youth research. We examine discursive representations of precarious work, vulnerability and risks among young Danish employees aged 18–24 in the healthcare sector, the metal industry and retail trade captured in 46 interviews involving 74 participants. Results are discussed taking into consideration the Nordic welfare model with an active labour marked policy. We conclude that precarious work is not, in fact, simply a characteristic of young employees’ work as such, but rather it is related to their position in the labour market and the type of jobs in which they are employed. While some are in transition, others are at risk of being trapped in precarious and risky working conditions.     

Reflecting upon vulnerable and dependent bodies during the COVID‐19 crisis

This article is a short narrative on how feminism helped me find a balance in my life and how this balance has been disrupted with the COVID‐19 crisis. I reflect on how this crisis is showing our vulnerabilities as human beings. This crisis reflects how our bodies depend on each other, moving away from the dominant patriarchal ontology that perceives bodies as being independent. This crisis is letting the most vulnerable in situations of survival because the infrastructures that support their bodies are not functioning. At the same time, this crisis is providing visibility to certain occupations that are dominated by issues of race, class and gender. These occupations are being at least temporarily rehabilitated to their central position in society. We are living a time where we could show, through our teaching, possible resistance to the neoliberal ontology that captured humanity.     

It’s OK not to be OK: Shared reflections from two PhD parents in a time of pandemic

Adopting an intersectional feminist lens, we explore our identities as single and co‐parents thrust into the new reality of the UK COVID‐19 lockdown. As two PhD students, we present shared reflections on our intersectional and divergent experiences of parenting and our attempts to protect our work and families during a pandemic. We reflect on the social constructions of ‘masculinities’ and ‘emphasized femininities’ as complicated influence on our roles as parents. Finally, we highlight the importance of time and self‐care as ways of managing our shared realities during this uncertain period. Through sharing reflections, we became closer friends in mutual appreciation and solidarity as we learned about each other’s struggles and vulnerabilities.