河北省海岸带经济脆弱性评价

本文根据对河北省海岸带脆弱性指标的分析及所建立的河北省海岸带经济脆弱度的评价体系,运用模糊评价法与灰色预测模型MGM(1,n)对河北省沿海各县市分别进行了现状评价与趋势评价,得出了各县市发展过程中的脆弱度,并提出了相应地优化调整建议。     

Research Review: Risk and resilience in cases of emotional abuse

This paper examines risk and resilience in relation to emotional abuse. Research has identified numerous child and family factors that may increase the risk of emotional abuse occurring and has also identified numerous ways in which an experience of emotional abuse can enhance vulnerability to negative outcomes. However, relatively little is known about the factors that determine the extent to which an experience of emotional abuse predicts later psychosocial functioning. Factors that may determine risk and resilience in children who experience emotional abuse are discussed. These include predisposing factors such as early caregiving experiences; precipitating factors such as the frequency, intensity and duration of the abuse; factors intrinsic to the child such as working models of the self and others, internal or external attributions, behavioural and coping strategies, self‐esteem, and disposition; and external factors such as school and availability of supportive relationships. The need to pay attention to the particular vulnerabilities and protective factors pertaining to each emotionally abused child in order to most effectively enhance resilience is highlighted.     

Victim Selection and Kinematics: A Point-Light Investigation of Vulnerability to Attack

Three experiments used a point-light methodology to investigate whether movement style specifies vulnerability to physical attack. Both female (Experiment 1) and male (Experiment 2) walkers could be differentiated according to ease-of-attack based solely on the kinematic information provided whilst walking. Specific walking style features predicted ease-of-attack and profiles of prototypically easy to attack and difficult to attack walkers were identified. Variations in walking style as a function of clothing and footwear style were also shown to predict differences in ease-of-attack ratings (Experiment 3). Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are considered.     

Risk Analysis for Critical Asset Protection

This article proposes a quantitative risk assessment and management framework that supports strategic asset-level resource allocation decision making for critical infrastructure and key resource protection. The proposed framework consists of five phases: scenario identification, consequence and criticality assessment, security vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. Key innovations in this methodology include its initial focus on fundamental asset characteristics to generate an exhaustive set of plausible threat scenarios based on a target susceptibility matrix (which we refer to as asset-driven analysis) and an approach to threat likelihood assessment that captures adversary tendencies to shift their preferences in response to security investments based on the expected utilities of alternative attack profiles assessed from the adversary perspective. A notional example is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed framework. Extensions of this model to support strategic portfolio-level analysis and tactical risk analysis are suggested.     

缓发性海洋灾害影响评估研究：基本视角与理论框架

作为缓发性海洋灾害的一种主要表现形式,海平面上升对沿海发展产生严重影响。在剖析灾害评估与脆弱性评估共性基础上,梳理海平面上升影响机理和沿海发展脆弱性评估现有文献发现,影响机理分析不系统、脆弱性评估方法不精细和评估结构差异明显等较为突出。基于此,提出海平面上升对沿海发展影响评估的理论框架,包括4个方面内容：构建海平面上升对沿海发展的影响机理机制、搭建海平面上升对沿海发展影响专业化云数据库、实施海平面上升影响下沿海发展脆弱性评估体系、划分海岸带脆弱性等级梯度标准。     

Probabilistic Modeling of Flood Hazard and its Risk Assessment for Eastern Region of India

This article models flood occurrence probabilistically and its risk assessment. It incorporates atmospheric parameters to forecast rainfall in an area. This measure of precipitation, together with river and ground parameters, serve as parameters in the model to predict runoff and subsequently inundation depth of an area. The inundation depth acts as a guide for predicting flood proneness and associated hazard. The vulnerability owing to flood has been analyzed as social vulnerability $(V_S)$, vulnerability to property $(V_P)$, and vulnerability to the location in terms of awareness $(V_A)$. The associated risk has been estimated for each area. The distribution of risk values can be used to classify every area into one of the six risk zones—namely, very low risk, low risk, moderately low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. The prioritization regarding preparedness, evacuation planning, or distribution of relief items should be guided by the range on the risk scale within which the area under study falls. The flood risk assessment model framework has been tested on a real‐life case study. The flood risk indices for each of the municipalities in the area under study have been calculated. The risk indices and hence the flood risk zone under which a municipality is expected to lie would alter every day. The appropriate authorities can then plan ahead in terms of preparedness to combat the impending flood situation in the most critical and vulnerable areas.     

农村教育与农民的脆弱性——基于河北一个村庄的考察

本文在实地考察的基础上,以河北滦平县某村农户为研究对象,通过典型案例分析讨论了当前我国农村家庭在现行教育体制下的脆弱性及其生计风险。教育导致农户脆弱性的机理在于农户在国家免费教育政策之外所付出的额外成本与大学教育的高成本和高消费以及由我国长期二元经济形成的城乡教育的不平等。     

基于农户尺度的农业旱灾脆弱性综合评价——以湖北省随州市曾都区农户调查为例

从农户微观角度出发,以Hoovering模型为基础,建立了基于熵值法和层次分析法的农户农业旱灾脆弱性综合评价指标体系和评价模型,并利用其对湖北省襄阳市曾都区的农户调查数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:农田水利设施较好、地势平坦、家庭收入水平较高的村落,农户的整体农业旱灾脆弱性相对较低;农业贷款对农户的农业旱灾脆弱性有显著影响,灾害补贴对农户的农业旱灾脆弱性影响不显著。由此,提出降低易旱地区农户的农业旱灾脆弱性的建议:加强易旱地区的农田水利基础设施建设,特别是要加强基础水源工程建设进程;在易旱地区要加大农业贷款、农业保险、抗旱节水技术推广等惠农政策的力度。     

Governance of Small Jurisdictions: Guest Editors' Introduction

This article introduces a symposium on the Governance of Small Jurisdictions developed from selected papers first presented at a conference at the Islands and Small States Institute of the University of Malta in November 1999. It notes the important role of the University of Malta in promoting the study of governance in small states, and recognises other leaders in the small and island states study movement including the International Association of Schools and Institutes of Administration which co-hosted the beginning conference.The article then considers the notions of smallness and statehood as generally used in this branch of scholarship, reflects on what small states have in common, introduces the other articles which make up the symposium, and provides a list of some 90 states with populations of under one million sorted into three categories: (i) sovereign states, (ii) states in federations, and (iii) associate states, self-governing territories and self-governing colonies.     

Attitudes to immigrants in South Africa: personality and vulnerability

While many countries across the world face increasing numbers of immigrants, the literature on attitudes to foreigners and immigrants focuses on Western countries. This article tests broad insights from Western countries in a specific non-Western context – South Africa, a country marked by sporadic violence against some immigrant groups. This provides an important validity check. Data from the 2013 South African Social Attitudes Survey and the 2013 World Value Survey are used to model attitudes to immigrants. In line with research on Western countries, individual personality is associated with differences in attitudes; people in vulnerable positions and those who lack a personal support mechanism are more likely to oppose immigrants. When implemented to reflect the specific context, research on attitudes to immigrants appears to generalise to non-Western contexts.