Earthquakes occurrences estimation through a parametric semi-Markov approach

The estimation of earthquakes’ occurrences prediction in seismic areas is a challenging problem in seismology and earthquake engineering. Indeed, the prevention and the quantification of possible damage provoked by destructive earthquakes are directly linked to this kind of prevision. In our paper, we adopt a parametric semi-Markov approach. This model assumes that a sequence of earthquakes is seen as a Markov process and besides it permits to take into consideration the more realistic assumption of events’ dependence in space and time. The elapsed time between two consecutive events is modeled as a general Weibull distribution. We determine then the transition probabilities and the so-called crossing states probabilities. We conclude then with a Monte Carlo simulation and the model is validated through a large database containing real data.     

Maternity waiting homes in times of crisis: Can current models meet women’s needs?

BackgroundMaternity waiting homes (MWHs) located close to birthing facilities are a conditional recommendation by the World Health Organisation, based on very low-quality evidence that they contribute to improvements in maternal or perinatal health outcomes. In addition, several studies suggest that more vulnerable women are less likely to use them. Yet significant investments continue to be made in building and running MWHs within conflict-affected and under-resourced health systems.AimsWe critically examine the literature to shed light on the challenges and opportunities provided by MWHs during health emergencies and in conflict situations.Findings and discussionMWHs are difficult to utilise during crises because they require women to be away from home, are often designed as dormitories, can lack security and be over-crowded. Some MWHs have been adapted during situations of political conflict to incorporate birthing and broader reproductive health care, thereby improving the availability of care away from over-burdened health facilities. How MWHs are adapted during times of crisis may provide insights into what systems of care are more appropriate in meeting women’s needs more broadly.ConclusionThe current global pandemic is an important time to reflect on whether MWHs are meeting the needs of a diverse range of women, in times of stability and during emergencies, and engage in genuine dialogue with women about the kinds of maternity care they want. We need to co-create those systems now so that they are more resilient during the inevitable crises we will face in the future.     

多渠道医疗门诊挂号的时间策略研究

现阶段多种门诊挂号方式并存时,根据患者特性制定不同的等待时间策略尤为重要。本文考虑门诊挂号的三种渠道：直接排队挂号渠道、电话预约挂号渠道与O2O预约挂号渠道。在价格外生前提下,综合考虑患者的渠道偏好程度、时间敏感性与提前支付敏感性,基于效用理论构建患者的渠道选择模型。根据该模型推导得出不同市场条件下医院的需求,医院再据此制定患者的等待时间策略以达到利润最大化的目的。研究发现：当医院仅开通单一挂号渠道时,若患者的时间敏感度越大、渠道偏好程度越小,等待时间均越小;开通某两种挂号渠道时,还需考虑患者对两种渠道的偏好比例,偏好某种渠道的患者比例增加,选择该渠道的患者等待时间增加,选择另一渠道的患者等待时间减小;同时开通三种渠道时,最偏好某渠道的患者比例越大,选择该渠道的患者的等待时间也越大;在所有情况下,患者对提前支付的敏感度均不影响最优等待时间的制定。     

Singlehood,Waiting, and the Sociology of Time1

This article explores how a temporal analysis of singlehood can contribute both to new conceptualizations of singlehood as well as to the study of social time. Prevalent interpretations of waiting single women offer a useful case study as they highlight the temporal organization of social life. Waiting is examined as an interactive setting representing and producing societal symbols, timetables, and collective schedules. Furthermore, this particular form of waiting is mostly featured as an unexpected delay and, accordingly, strengthens the widespread understanding of singlehood as a temporary and transitory life phase. Based on a content analysis, this article seeks to theorize some of the temporal aspects of singlehood, analyze its discursive implications, and study how it reflects and structures dominant discourses of family and social life.     

A state of limbo: the politics of waiting in neo‐liberal Latvia

This article presents an ethnographic study of politics of waiting in a post‐Soviet context. While activation has been explored in sociological and anthropological literature as a neo‐liberal governmental technology and its application in post‐socialist context has also been compellingly documented, waiting as a political artefact has only recently been receiving increased scholarly attention. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork at a state‐run unemployment office in Riga, this article shows how, alongside activation, state welfare policies also produce passivity and waiting. Engaging with the small but developing field of sociological literature on the politics of waiting, I argue that, rather than interpreting it as a clash between ‘neo‐liberal’ and ‘Soviet’ regimes, we should understand the double‐move of activation and imposition of waiting as a key mechanism of neo‐liberal biopolitics. This article thus extends the existing theorizations of the temporal politics of neo‐liberalism.     

TESTS FOR EXPONENTIALITY AGAINST GAMMA ALTERNATIVES USING NORMALIZED WAITING TIMES

In this article, we present some tests for Exponentiality against Gamma alternatives by using normalized waiting times. The test is constructed by using a quadratic form. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test is derived. The power of the test is computed through Monte Carlo simulation and is compared with Linhart (1965) test, Bain and Engelhardt (1975) test and Keating et al. (1990) test.     

等待与希望——解读贝克特的《等待戈多》

萨缪尔.贝克特的《等待戈多》是西方荒诞派戏剧中具有代表性的一部剧作,它以荒诞的手法表现了西方精神世界的荒芜,同时,贝克特又赋予人们等待和希望,他认为,等待便是希望,有等待才有希望。这也正是这部戏剧留给我们的启示和经久不衰的魅力所在。     

论国民政府“苦撑待变”外交战略

"苦撑待变"是太平洋战争爆发前国民政府的抗日外交战略.一般认为,该战略是在全面抗战爆发后提出的,其特征是消极待援.本文认为,"苦撑待变"战略是在全面抗战前数年就产生的.它的提出是国民政府对中国国情与国际地位、对日本侵略野心和国际形势演变趋势正确判断的必然产物.中国政府为实施这一外交战略,进行了积极的外交活动,这主要表现在进行舆论宣传、努力争取外援、呼吁制裁侵略及反对妥协和倡议反侵略国家进行合作等方面."苦撑待变"的实质是积极促进国际形势朝向有利于中国的方向演变,而非一味消极待变.苦撑待变战略的实施,使中国赢得了国际社会的尊重,促成了国际形势的演变,因而是成功的外交战略.     

中国“老人自死习俗”相关历史记忆重释

中国早期文献记载了在历史上存在过的"老人自死习俗"的各种形式,但已失去了解释性。一些老人自死习俗在汉代之后的文献中始终被置于道德批判的视角下,另一些经过象征性仪式与文化解释的改变而得以在官方与民间同时延续下来;在民间历史中则不同程度保留着有关习俗与解释性传说;无论在古代文献还是民间叙事中,这些事项之间的相互联系与统一性早已被割裂、打碎,甚至遗忘;借助经典人类学理论,针对文献记载和现实遗存,理清其演变的规律,还原其共同的文化本质,建立起内在的统一的解释,可导致对历史文献和现实认知两个层面的民族记忆的重新认识和改写。     

Waiting time to exhaust lottery numbers

Questions related to lotteries are usually of interest to the public since people think there is a magic formula which will help them to win lottery draws. This note shows how to compute the expected waiting time to observe specific numbers in a sequence of lottery draws and show that surprising facts are expected to occur.