20世纪30、40年代费孝通地权思想浅析

20世纪30、40年代,费孝通地权思想在农村实地调查的基础上形成。他认为农民贫困是农、地分离的根本原因,主张通过发展乡村工业来改善农民的经济状况,防止农民与土地的分离,地权分配与土地生产相结合,分散所有权,集合经营权,以发展农业的规模经营,实现农业的机械化、现代化。费孝通地权思想来源于纯学术性质的农村调查,着眼于农业未来的现代化发展方向,具有"普适价值"与更为广泛的意义。     

艳阳下的新生——《托斯卡纳艳阳下》的审美意象研究

电影《托斯卡纳艳阳下》讲述了一个遭受婚姻背叛打击的美国女作家弗朗西丝,在托斯卡纳邻居和朋友的帮助下,渐渐走出阴霾,重新收获了事业、友情、亲情和爱情的故事。影片通过向日葵、水、鸽子、家、蛇、七星瓢虫等意象来加强电影的审美效果,凸显女主角弗朗西丝勇敢坚持、乐观向上,不懈努力的新女性形象。     

关系类型对顾客感知损失、情绪和行为意向的影响——来自餐饮业的实证研究

文章构建了以服务失误为自变量,顾客感知损失、负面情绪、抱怨倾向与重购意愿为因变量,关系类型为调节变量的概念模型.实证分析表明:信任关系能在一定程度上缓解顾客的负面情绪和抱怨倾向,增强其重购意愿;服务失误本身严重性对顾客感知功利损失的影响大于服务员处理失误时负面情绪对功利损失的影响,但服务员处理失误时的负面情绪对顾客感知象征损失的影响又大于服务失误本身严重性对象征损失的影响;另外,信任关系下的顾客感知损失更倾向于象征损失,而偶遇关系下顾客感知损失更倾向于功利损失.     

民国时期城固县堰渠水利管理与地方社会关系——以碑石资料为基础

通过解读碑文,了解到明清以降城固县水利管理权日渐民间化,乡绅逐渐通过操控水权影响地方社会;而官府也在为限制绅权、收回水利管理权寻找最佳平衡点.对城固县水利碑文的解读,复原堰渠水利管理的原貌;对堰渠水利管理与地方社会多方面复杂关系的研究,再现民国时期城固县乡土社会的结构、组织脉络和生活图景.     

Bayesian inference and prediction of the Rayleigh distribution based on ordered ranked set sampling

Based on ordered ranked set sample, Bayesian estimation of the model parameter as well as prediction of the unobserved data from Rayleigh distribution are studied. The Bayes estimates of the parameter involved are obtained using both squared error and asymmetric loss functions. The Bayesian prediction approach is considered for predicting the unobserved lifetimes based on a two-sample prediction problem. A real life dataset and simulation study are used to illustrate our procedures.     

Bayesian estimation of sensitivity level and population proportion of a sensitive characteristic in a binary optional unrelated question RRT model

Sihm et al. (2016 Sihm, J. S., A. Chhabra, and S. N. Gupta. 2016. An optional unrelated question RRT model. Involve: A Journal of Mathematics 9 (2):195–209.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) proposed an unrelated question binary optional randomized response technique (RRT) model for estimating the proportion of population that possess a sensitive characteristic and the sensitivity level of the question. In our work, decision theoretic approach has been followed to obtain Bayes estimates of the two parameters along with their corresponding minimal Bayes posterior expected losses (BPEL) using beta prior and squared error loss function (SELF). Relative losses are also examined to compare the performances of the Bayes estimates with those of the classical estimates obtained by Sihm et al. (2016 Sihm, J. S., A. Chhabra, and S. N. Gupta. 2016. An optional unrelated question RRT model. Involve: A Journal of Mathematics 9 (2):195–209.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). The results obtained are illustrated with the help of real survey data using non informative prior.     

Using Probabilistic Modeling to Evaluate Human Exposure to Organotin in Drinking Water Transported by Polyvinyl Chloride Pipe

The leaching of organotin (OT) heat stabilizers from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipes used in residential drinking water systems may affect the quality of drinking water. These OTs, principally mono- and di-substituted species of butyltins and methyltins, are a potential health concern because they belong to a broad class of compounds that may be immune, nervous, and reproductive system toxicants. In this article, we develop probability distributions of U.S. population exposures to mixtures of OTs encountered in drinking water transported by PVC pipes. We employed a family of mathematical models to estimate OT leaching rates from PVC pipe as a function of both surface area and time. We then integrated the distribution of estimated leaching rates into an exposure model that estimated the probability distribution of OT concentrations in tap waters and the resulting potential human OT exposures via tap water consumption. Our study results suggest that human OT exposures through tap water consumption are likely to be considerably lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) "safe" long-term concentration in drinking water (150 μg/L) for dibutyltin (DBT)—the most toxic of the OT considered in this article. The 90th percentile average daily dose (ADD) estimate of 0.034 ± 2.92 × 10⁻⁴μg/kg day is approximately 120 times lower than the WHO-based ADD for DBT (4.2 μg/kg day).     

Bayesian Network for Risk of Diarrhea Associated with the Use of Recycled Water

Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert's opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.     

Loss of Life Caused by the Flooding of New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: Analysis of the Relationship Between Flood Characteristics and Mortality

In this article a preliminary analysis of the loss of life caused by Hurricane Katrina in the New Orleans metropolitan area is presented. The hurricane caused more than 1,100 fatalities in the state of Louisiana. A preliminary data set that gives information on the recovery locations and individual characteristics for 771 fatalities has been analyzed. One-third of the analyzed fatalities occurred outside the flooded areas or in hospitals and shelters in the flooded area. These fatalities were due to the adverse public health situation that developed after the floods. Two-thirds of the analyzed fatalities were most likely associated with the direct physical impacts of the flood and mostly caused by drowning. The majority of victims were elderly: nearly 60% of fatalities were over 65 years old. Similar to historical flood events, mortality rates were highest in areas near severe breaches and in areas with large water depths. An empirical relationship has been derived between the water depth and mortality and this has been compared with similar mortality functions proposed based on data for other flood events. The overall mortality among the exposed population for this event was approximately 1%, which is similar to findings for historical flood events. Despite the fact that the presented results are preliminary they give important insights into the determinants of loss of life and the relationship between mortality and flood characteristics.     

论我国除权判决与公示催告制度的完善

基于票据的设权性与无因性之统一,其内囊括之实体权利与其外存在之承载介质本在一般条件下密不可分,对介质客体的背书占有是行使票据内在权利之充要条件。但当票据介质未处于实际最后权利人占有的状态,其不仅存在被第三人取得并继续流通的可能,亦会进一步导致实际最后权利人合法利益受损。因此,在进行除权判决时,如何保护实际最后权利人的利益行使,防止恶意申请公示催告的救济途径就显得尤为重要。本文以票据被恶意除权后实际最后合法持票人如何实现救济为争议焦点的一个典型案例进行切入,分析目前我国票据除权判决与公示催告制度存在的问题,并对票据除权之诉的系统立法完善及司法适用提出合理建议。