The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now

In an analysis of the French episode of heat wave in 2003, this article highlights how heat wave dangers result from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability, along with social attenuation of hazards, in a general context where the anthropogenic contribution to climate change is becoming more plausible, led to an excess of 14,947 deaths in France, between August 4 and 18, 2003. The greatest increase in mortality was due to causes directly attributable to heat: dehydration, hyperthermia, heat stroke. In addition to age and gender, combinatorial factors included preexisting disease, medication, urban residence, isolation, poverty, and, probably, air pollution. Although diversely impacted or reported, many parts of Europe suffered human and other losses, such as farming and forestry through drought and fires. Summer 2003 was the hottest in Europe since 1500, very likely due in part to anthropogenic climate change. The French experience confirms research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. We analyze the heat wave's profile as a strongly attenuated risk in the French context, as well as the causes and the effects of its sudden shift into amplification. Research and preparedness needs are highlighted.     

试析“韩流”与韩国对华文化外交

文化外交是主权国家利用文化手段达到特定政治目的或对外战略意图的活动。韩国对华文化外交的实施对"韩流"在中国的兴起及风行创造了友好的政治氛围,奠定了广泛的受众基础,提供了坚实的保障。它的主要特色在于:以对外文化交流机构为依托,以韩国语为载体,以文化产业为主导。"韩流"不仅为韩国带来了为数可观的直接和间接经济效益,还提升了韩国的国家形象,改变了中国大众的对韩印象,对加强中韩民众的相互信任起到十分重要的作用。     

分数阶长短波方程的整体光滑解

本文研究了分数阶长短波方程组的周期初边值问题,运用一致先验估计和Galerkin方法证明了分数阶长短波方程整体光滑解的存在性和唯一性.     

Model-based clustering of multivariate skew data with circular components and missing values

Motivated by classification issues that arise in marine studies, we propose a latent-class mixture model for the unsupervised classification of incomplete quadrivariate data with two linear and two circular components. The model integrates bivariate circular densities and bivariate skew normal densities to capture the association between toroidal clusters of bivariate circular observations and planar clusters of bivariate linear observations. Maximum-likelihood estimation of the model is facilitated by an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm that treats unknown class membership and missing values as different sources of incomplete information. The model is exploited on hourly observations of wind speed and direction and wave height and direction to identify a number of sea regimes, which represent specific distributional shapes that the data take under environmental latent conditions.     

古诗“断”—“译”—“联”—“对”四步赏析法

为了破解学生读不懂古诗的难题，根据学生的实际情况，借鉴古人的读诗方法，结合古诗的句法结构特征，在教学中通过实施“断”—“译”—“联”—“对”四步赏析法，引领学生循序渐进地心领古诗表面文意，神会古诗情志内涵。     

Creating the Next Wave of Family Therapy

This article is an exploration of family therapy in Australia based on interviews with seven leading Australian family therapists: Max Cornwell, Carolyn Quadrio, Ron Perry, Laurie MacKinnon, Brian Stagoll, Banu Moloney and Jim Crawley. It explores the attributes and qualities of what makes a good family therapist and seeks to understand how the next generation of therapists can generate a new enthusiasm for family therapy.     

中原贫民亡入匈奴地区谋求生存

中原贫民违反汉禁亡入匈奴地区者大量存在,虽有严刑峻法障塞哨卡亦不能完全阻断。出塞攻略匈奴的中原将士多留没不还,其子孙亲戚仍在中原而生活贫困者都愿意亡出塞外去谋求生存。中原农民赋役负担过于繁重:力役兵徭苛捐杂税几十倍于古,产子3岁须出口钱,连续23年的大面积严重黄河水患及皇帝官吏的无度奢靡敲骨吸髓,致使他们常衣牛马之衣而食犬彘之食,不少人因饥寒冻饿而死,或至人相食。破产农民流亡就食他乡被诬指为盗贼,并以军兴之法无情镇压。匈奴地区的管理相对宽松。匈奴中有不少来自中原的“秦人”。     

蒙元初期的丝绸之路与国家治理

13世纪,随着蒙元帝国的兴起和边界的快速推移,新疆由传统的中国边疆西域变为帝国版图的核心区。四通八达的交通和保障有力的驿站运输,保证了帝国一统天下,重构了此前衰微的丝绸之路。移藩去篱、交叠有效的治理,使蒙元帝国在多元互动、交融共生之中走向繁盛,生动诠释了“丝路精神”,促进了中华民族的形成,为人类文明发展做出了贡献。“一带一路”建设会使新疆由中国“边疆”跃居亚太“核心”,为更多国家和地区的人民带来福祉,促进中国与世界的和平发展。     

多相感应电机任意非正弦气隙磁密的磁动势分析与应用

多相感应电机转矩密度的提高依赖于非正弦气隙磁密行波的合理构建,由于传统的电流相位、幅值控制策略无 法给出期望的非正弦磁密行波,因此文章研究了控制多相感应电机定子相电流中基波和谐波幅值、相位、频率的大小来 构建期望的气隙磁密波形的方法、首先基于单根载流导体产生的气隙磁动势波形,推导了任意相数、不对称、包含任意 高次谐波电流波形激励的具有典型绕组结构的多相感应电机的磁动势分布表达式。根据以上磁动势分析结论,多相电 机可通过变电流相序变极。针对气隙磁密行波逼近方波波形的案例,根据所提出的磁动势分析方法分析和预测了理想 空载励磁电流的波形。将预测波形和方波供电下的励磁电流波形进行了比较,从FFT分析结果来看,仍需微调各次谐波 电压相位,从而实现各次电流相位完全一致。     

省域经济洼地区域中心城市发展战略研究——以江苏淮安为例

省域经济洼地地区是实现区域协调发展的重要板块和关键区域。以江苏省淮安市为例,从战略角度审视淮安建设成为苏北重要中心城市的意义和基础,并提出淮安在区域经济和流域经济层面上两个维度的发展定位和三个方向的发展路径。通过纵向融入京沪高铁和京杭运河两条复合发展轴,横向建设淮河流域生态经济带,打造苏皖在江北地区的跨界合作示范区等战略,推动淮安苏北重要中心城市的建设和省域经济协调发展格局的形成。