从汇率谜团到汇率决定的社会福利平价

汇率及汇率制度之争的根本在于真实汇率的确定,而众多的汇率理论及实证模型得出的结论难以统一,有的甚至背道而驰。汇率及汇率制度理论发展至今,仍然存在诸多谜团。总结汇率理论及理论、实证汇率模型的根本假设在于购买力平价、利率平价和生产力差异。从汇率形成原理和人类经济发展角度以及东西方文明的最高诉求而言,以其作为汇率及汇率制度理论的基本假设,都不甚合理。社会福利平价是我们提出的一个有关汇率及汇率制度的新的基本假设,在此基础上,可以从一个侧面更好地揭示汇率及汇率制度选择的本质,特别是关于新兴市场经济国家汇率确定及汇率制度选择的依据问题。     

马克思主义文艺观与文学理论教材建设

我国文学理论教材在贯彻马克思主义文艺观时,应该注意文艺学转化问题,应该根据文学理论的学科特点与马克思主义文艺观对接,应该准确地把握马克思主义的文艺观。     

The contributions of welfare typologies to international social work practices

This paper is concerned with the link between studies of welfare typologies and studies of international social work. Its objective is to show how welfare typologies could be used to strengthen the role of international social work practices to support international exchange of ideas on welfare issues. To meet this objective, three analytical tasks are implemented. The first task is to show that professional imperialism could weaken the potential of international social work practices to promote international exchange of ideas on welfare issues. The second task is to discuss the importance of welfare typologies in supporting the development of international social work by challenging professional imperialism. The third task is to discuss a research project on a defamilization typology. This project provides empirical evidence of the contributions made by welfare typologies to international social work practices.     

论新时期专业性的职业新闻人及其培养

现代新闻传媒在不同时期形成的新闻信息传播方式,导致专业与非专业的新闻传播形式相互交织在一起,造成了今天的新闻人的职业性质的不稳定性和不确定性。而在中国,由于特有的社会环境与文化观念的影响,中国专业性的职业新闻人始终没有得到确立,使得新闻传播的职业地位和社会声誉面临着一系列的挑战。在此情况下,培养什么样的职业新闻人是一个必须要作出正面回应的问题。就目前的中国新闻传播实践现状而言,专业性的职业新闻人意识很难在其中得到培养和成长,高校必须将此重任承担起来。     

An Assessment of Two Parenting Training Manuals Used in Swedish Parenting Interventions

In Sweden, all parents of children aged 0–18 years are entitled to attend free parenting courses as part of a national strategy presented by the Government in 2009. This broad parental support welfare strategy is expected to fulfil the intentions of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child. In this study, two parenting training manuals were analysed: the Canadian Connect program, based on attachment theory, and the Swedish ABC program, based on social learning theory. The results indicate that the manuals use strategies that can both hinder and support children's rights, regardless of rhetoric of children's best interests.     

强制保险能否提高保险市场效率

文章以社会福利为衡量保险市场效率的标准,分析实施强制保险是否有助于保险市场效率的提高。文章首先证明了在信息不对称的保险市场中存在着市场失灵现象;然后通过比较实施强制保险前后社会福利的差异,得出结论:实施强制保险有助于社会福利的改善,从而可以提高保险市场效率。     

The Effects of Computerization on Public Child Welfare Practice

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the impact of a new and promising case-based management information system on child welfare case management practices in two California counties. The objectives were to measure the extent to which computerization affected casework practices and to identify factors that influenced the effects of computerization. An exploratory longitudinal one-group pre-post design was used. Contrary to expectations, few differences were found, although workers spent more time alone after implementation of the system. A key finding is that the amount of time that caseworkers spent with clients was not reduced by the computer system.     

A Test of a Model with Reciprocal Effects Between Religiosity and Various Forms of Delinquency Using 2-Stage Least Squares Regression

ABSTRACT

This was a study of 1,093 adolescents from six different public high schools, where the same integrated theoretical model of control and social learning theories fit the data on alcohol use, heavy alcohol consumption, use of marijuana, criminal behavior, sexual exploration, and suicidal thoughts. It was observed that the model explained significantly more variance in some of these forms of delinquency than in others, indicating only equivocal support for the deviance syndrome argument in the literature. This study also found that religiosity was a significant influence only on criminal behavior, whereas the feedback eifect of delinquency on religiosity was significant for all forms of delinquent behavior studied. The importance of this particular finding was discussed in relation to previous studies, since almost all prior research has used statistics that do not consider reciprocal eifects. In the present study, the reciprocal effects between religiosity and various forms of delinquency were analyzed with two-stage least squares regression.     

Engagement strategies and change: an intentional practice response for the child welfare worker in cases of domestic violence

In order to engage mothers who are victims of domestic abuse, the child welfare worker needs to be challenged to develop an intentional practice response that includes knowledge and skill concerning the complexities of domestic violence, as well as the process of change. Developing a supportive relationship, understanding the stages of change (SOC) and engaging mothers as leaders in the change process are essential to successful child protection outcomes. Within the context of the SOC model, this practice‐based paper focuses on the importance of engaging mothers who are victims of domestic violence in conversations about their own unique dilemmas, challenges and barriers regarding change. Through the inclusion of engagement strategies such as signs of safety, active listening and cost/benefit analysis, in concert with the SOC theory, the child welfare worker would be equipped with an approach to successfully assist mothers through their change journey, ultimately keeping children safe.     

The local geographies of welfare in Tunisia: Does neighbourhood matter?*

Amara M, Ayadi M. The local geographies of welfare in Tunisia: Does neighbourhood matter? The aim of this article is to show that spatial analysis techniques outperform non‐spatial statistical counterparts for understanding the geographic determinants of welfare and poverty in Tunisia. First, an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, based on a Geographical Information System, was conducted to visualise the local spatial structure of welfare. Second, a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, respectively, were used to deal with both spatial autocorrelations and unobserved spatial heterogeneity of households' behaviours. Spatial and non‐spatial models were compared according to their predictive performances. Results of this case study confirm that SAR and GWR spatial models are preferable to the traditional non‐spatial regression model and that they give a better approximation of the Tunisian poverty map.