信息技术与经济法学课程整合的策略

信息技术在教学中的广泛应用使高等教育在新的历史时期得到重大发展。本文从信息技术与经济法学课程整合的迫切性入手,论述了信息技术与经济法学课程整合的知识点策略、典型案例策略、情境激发策略、合作探究策略。     

私营企业与经济发展水平相关性分析

私营企业与一个国家或地区的经济社会发展有着密切的关系。本文通过实证研究,分析了私营企业发展与经济发展的相关关系,认为私营企业的发展是经济发展的重要增长点。最后结合分析结果提出了发展私营企业进而促进经济可持续增长的一些建议。     

经济法教学实践性模式探讨

现行高校经济法教学模式一般只注重向学生传授基本的经济法学原理和相关法律知识,却忽视对学生实践能力、操作能力和思考能力的培养,造成教学和现实的脱节,同时也面临着学科自身发展瓶颈与学生就业前景暗淡的尴尬.针对经济法课程新、专、广的特点,本着培养学生经济法法律意识和法律实践能力的目的,从教学环节入手,以实践性理念为指导来设定教学目标、安排教学内容、运用多样化的教学方法和手段,构建经济法教学的实践性模式,不失为一条出路.     

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

经济全球化的挑战与中国的对策

经济全球化作为一个客观的历史进程,对国家的经济主权形成了巨大的挑战与影响,作为发展中国家的我国,必须适应这种历史潮流,科学认识与理性应对,以便更有效地维护国家利益。     

当前我国区域经济发展差距

随着改革开放的不断深入 ,我国区域经济发展的差距日益拉大 ,已经成为社会广泛关注的热点问题。从缩小我国区域经济发展差距的必要性入手 ,分析了我国区域经济发展差距的产生原因 ,并就新形势下如何尽快缩小我国区域经济差距问题 ,提出了看法     

论物权法之区分原则

物权行为的独立性决定了区分原则的必然存在.区分原则,不是物权变动与原因行为的区分,而是引起物权变动的物权行为与原因行为即债权行为的区分.区分原则无论在理论或实践上均有极其重要的意义,因而在即将通过的物权法中,应确立区分原则的重要地位.     

Economic Determinants of Net International Migration in Western Europe

This paper aims to estimate theinfluence of economic determinants on netinternational migration in Western Europe inthe period 1960–1998. Net migration rates(i.e., population growth minus natural increase,divided by the midyear population) constitutethe dependent variable. The economicdeterminants used in this study are GDP percapita, unemployment, and average educationallevel (amount of human capital) of thepopulation. Time series regression models havebeen used in country-specific analyses. Inaddition, a pooled cross-sectional time seriesanalysis has been made. The analyses suggestthat GDP per capita has a positive effect andunemployment a negative effect on a country'snet international migration.     

经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

Causal Reasoning from Longitudinal Data*

Abstract. This paper reviews some of the key statistical ideas that are encountered when trying to find empirical support to causal interpretations and conclusions, by applying statistical methods on experimental or observational longitudinal data. In such data, typically a collection of individuals are followed over time, then each one has registered a sequence of covariate measurements along with values of control variables that in the analysis are to be interpreted as causes, and finally the individual outcomes or responses are reported. Particular attention is given to the potentially important problem of confounding. We provide conditions under which, at least in principle, unconfounded estimation of the causal effects can be accomplished. Our approach for dealing with causal problems is entirely probabilistic, and we apply Bayesian ideas and techniques to deal with the corresponding statistical inference. In particular, we use the general framework of marked point processes for setting up the probability models, and consider posterior predictive distributions as providing the natural summary measures for assessing the causal effects. We also draw connections to relevant recent work in this area, notably to Judea Pearl's formulations based on graphical models and his calculus of so‐called do‐probabilities. Two examples illustrating different aspects of causal reasoning are discussed in detail.