中国未来就业规模与结构预测：一个国际比较的视角

当前中国呈现与发达国家工业化后期非常相似的就业特征。面对经济与人口结构的剧烈变化以及国外需求冲击和新技术革命影响杂糅的局面,中国就业形势显得扑朔迷离。通过全面系统回顾发达国家长期就业增长和结构演变趋势,发现不仅在就业总量绝对值的趋势上,甚至在就业比例相对值上,各国都呈现出非常相似的阶段性特征。这些经验规律为预测中国就业总量和结构提供了相对准确的参照：未来新增劳动力需求就业总量增加比就业岗位的增加略低,中国劳动力供给依然比较充足。第二产业就业比例将维持稳定,服务业将成为吸纳就业的主要领域,农业就业减少主要被服务业的增加所替代;第二产业中,建筑业就业比例会持续增加,制造业比例维持稳定,采掘业将持续下降;第三产业中,生产服务业比例会提升,生活性服务业比例会下降。     

The Politicization of Risk: Party Cues,Polarization, and Public Perceptions of Climate Change Risk

Previous research shows that public perceptions of climate change risk are strongly related to the individual willingness to support climate mitigation and adaptation policy. In this article, I investigate how public perceptions of climate change risk are affected by communications from political parties and the degree of polarization among them. Specifically, using survey data from Sweden, Norway, Australia, and New Zealand, I study the relationship between party source cues, perceived polarization, and public perceptions of climate change risk. The results reveal a positive relationship between party cues and perceptions of climate change risk, indicating that individuals adjust their risk perceptions to align with their party preference. Furthermore, a negative relationship between perceived polarization and individual risk perceptions is also discovered, showing that individuals tend to be less concerned with climate change the more polarization they perceive. However, the effect of perceived polarization is found to be limited to more abstract perceptions of risk, while being unrelated to perceptions of concrete risks. Even with some contextual variance, the results generally hold up well across the four countries.     

英美刑事诉讼未成年人证人资格比较及其启示

在英美两国刑事诉讼中,未成年人在一定条件下具有证人资格,且资格的裁决需要遵循法定程序。与之相比,我国相关立法较为粗糙简单。未成年人证人资格认定之标准不尽合理,并未对裁决程序做出具体规定,以致在司法实践中产生操作困难。基于此,我国刑诉立法应当修改目前未成年人证人资格之标准,规定未成年人具备感知、记忆和表达能力即可作证,并且对未成年人证人资格的审查程序做出具体规定。     

Bayesian spectral analysis models for quantile regression with Dirichlet process mixtures

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of partially linear additive models for quantile regression. We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach to quantile regression models using a spectral representation of the nonparametric regression functions and the Dirichlet process (DP) mixture for error distribution. We also consider Bayesian variable selection procedures for both parametric and nonparametric components in a partially linear additive model structure based on the Bayesian shrinkage priors via a stochastic search algorithm. Based on the proposed Bayesian semiparametric additive quantile regression model referred to as BSAQ, the Bayesian inference is considered for estimation and model selection. For the posterior computation, we design a simple and efficient Gibbs sampler based on a location-scale mixture of exponential and normal distributions for an asymmetric Laplace distribution, which facilitates the commonly used collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithms for the DP mixture models. Additionally, we discuss the asymptotic property of the sempiparametric quantile regression model in terms of consistency of posterior distribution. Simulation studies and real data application examples illustrate the proposed method and compare it with Bayesian quantile regression methods in the literature.     

数字贸易的缘起、国际经验与发展策略

通过对数字贸易现状的分析,探究了数字贸易兴起的理论机理。研究发现:(1)数字贸易兴起的直接原因在于数字经济的发展,而根本原因是技术创新引发的生产组织方式的深度变革。(2)数字贸易的蓬勃发展是降低成本、提高生产效率以及促进经济增长和商业版图重构的重要途径。(3)发展数字贸易,既是满足居民日益增长的美好生活需要的重要抓手,也是实现中国经济由高速增长向高质量发展转换的重要手段。(4)与西方发达国家相比,中国的差距主要体现在数字基础设施无法满足数字贸易蓬勃发展的市场需求、监管缺位和国际话语权缺失等方面。加快发展数字贸易,是培育贸易新业态、新模式和推进贸易强国建设的重要路径。要从高度重视数字经济、完善数字基础设施建设、培育壮大市场主体、加强立法监管、开展数字贸易自贸区试点、提升国际贸易话语权、发展龙头企业扩大“一带一路”沿线影响等方面发力,加快发展数字贸易。     

高低质量同类食品供应商关联定价及利润比较

针对高低质量食品供应商先后定价与同时定价的不同时序定价情况,利用优化模型分别分析了低质量食品供应商优先定价、高质量食品供应商优先定价与高低质量食品供应商同时定价三种不同情况下,高质量供应商与低质量供应商的价格及其利润比较。同时在高质量食品供应商实施内部质量监督的条件下,对上述不同情况的供应商定价及其利润进行了分析。研究表明:高质量食品供应商优先定价时更易实现供给高质量食品具有利润优势的条件;在高质量食品供应商实施内部质量监督的条件下,消费者对食品质量关注度与对价格敏感度的高低比较,对供给高质量食品获利影响更为显著。     

中国金融风险调控范式选择：贷款价值比政策还是个人住房贷款占比政策？

通过构建一个六部门的DSGE模型,在家庭部门中引入投机行为,评估个人住房贷款占比的政策效力,并将其与传统的贷款价值比（LTV）政策进行比较,研究发现：第一,两种宏观审慎政策均能提升社会总福利,调控房地产与银行金融风险,平抑主要经济金融变量波动。第二,在住房偏好、技术进步冲击下,短期内LTV政策能够更好地调控金融风险,而个人住房贷款占比政策的长期抑制效应更佳;在货币政策冲击下,个人住房贷款占比在长短期的表现均优于LTV政策,且不会对经济产出有显著负面影响。第三,在住房偏好与货币政策冲击下,个人住房贷款占比政策能更好地与货币政策协调,福利改进更大。进一步研究发现,两种政策钉住目标不同也会导致其福利改进与稳定波动率表现产生差异。     

Cultural Self-confidence and Foreign Literature

The issue of cultural self-confidence in the foreign literature in essence refers to subject awareness and position between the communication of Chinese and foreign cultures. Openness and tolerance, dialectical comparison and absorption and transformation are three dimensions by which the cultural self-confidence establishes. Openness and tolerance means avoiding self-closure and worship of the west only. Dialectical comparisonneeds to concentrate on the comparative vision in the subject category, course setting and students’ reception. Absorption and transformation requires the criticism first and then borrowing and finally innovation way when faced with foreign cultures.     

罗振玉“由金文以窥书契”的考释方法

罗振玉的《增订殷虚书契考释》是甲骨文研究史上里程碑式的杰作。该书立有560个字头,利用金文的字头有187个,一共引述金文293条次,其中仅言古金文或器物未摹字形者就有69条次,涉及到760个甲骨文形体的考释。罗振玉利用金文考释甲骨文的方法主要有:以金文偏旁或单字证甲骨文、利用金文通律证甲骨文、金文篆文比较以证甲骨文等。罗振玉在考释的同时,还通过甲金文的相互比照,探讨了文字发展演变中的分化、简化、繁化、讹变等现象,追溯了文字的初形初义,纠正了前人的一些错误。     

英语比较句的理解与翻译

在分析了大量的英语比较句的基础上,本文提出联系具体的上下文和语境是理解和翻译英语比较句最准确、最可靠的方法。