Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.     

A semi-parametric approach to robust parameter design

Parameter design or robust parameter design (RPD) is an engineering methodology intended as a cost-effective approach for improving the quality of products and processes. The goal of parameter design is to choose the levels of the control variables that optimize a defined quality characteristic. An essential component of RPD involves the assumption of well estimated models for the process mean and variance. Traditionally, the modeling of the mean and variance has been done parametrically. It is often the case, particularly when modeling the variance, that nonparametric techniques are more appropriate due to the nature of the curvature in the underlying function. Most response surface experiments involve sparse data. In sparse data situations with unusual curvature in the underlying function, nonparametric techniques often result in estimates with problematic variation whereas their parametric counterparts may result in estimates with problematic bias. We propose the use of semi-parametric modeling within the robust design setting, combining parametric and nonparametric functions to improve the quality of both mean and variance model estimation. The proposed method will be illustrated with an example and simulations.     

Sampling Strategies for Toxic Air Contaminants

Annual concentrations of toxic air contaminants are of primary concern from the perspective of chronic human exposure assessment and risk analysis. Despite recent advances in air quality monitoring technology, resource and technical constraints often impose limitations on the availability of a sufficient number of ambient concentration measurements for performing environmental risk analysis. Therefore, sample size limitations, representativeness of data, and uncertainties in the estimated annual mean concentration must be examined before performing quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, we discuss several factors that need to be considered in designing field-sampling programs for toxic air contaminants and in verifying compliance with environmental regulations. Specifically, we examine the behavior of SO2, TSP, and CO data as surrogates for toxic air contaminants and as examples of point source, area source, and line source-dominated pollutants, respectively, from the standpoint of sampling design. We demonstrate the use of bootstrap resampling method and normal theory in estimating the annual mean concentration and its 95% confidence bounds from limited sampling data, and illustrate the application of operating characteristic (OC) curves to determine optimum sample size and other sampling strategies. We also outline a statistical procedure, based on a one-sided t-test, that utilizes the sampled concentration data for evaluating whether a sampling site is compliance with relevant ambient guideline concentrations for toxic air contaminants.     

An Examination of the Effect of Continuous Quality Improvements on Optimal Pricing for Durable Goods*

This paper investigates the nature of optimal prices for a durable good in the presence of continuous quality improvements. The analysis of optimal prices is based on a nonlinear dynamic model of sales response that relates price, quality, average life of a product and the persistence of quality perceptions. Numerical solutions to the model are derived by employing the generalized reduced gradient algorithm. The results show that optimal price depends on the persistence of quality perceptions and the average life of a product (an aspect of quality). The analysis of optimal results affirms results based on other models and provides insights on the influence that quality has on optimal pricing. The implications of the results and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Accurate estimation for extra-Poisson variability assuming random effect models

In this study, the components of extra-Poisson variability are estimated assuming random effect models under a Bayesian approach. A standard existing methodology to estimate extra-Poisson variability assumes a negative binomial distribution. The obtained results show that using the proposed random effect model it is possible to get more accurate estimates for the extra-Poisson variability components when compared to the use of a negative binomial distribution where it is possible to estimate only one component of extra-Poisson variability. Some illustrative examples are introduced considering real data sets.     

法院如何回应民意:一种法学方法论上的解决方案

围绕司法与民意的讨论,目前各界存在原因认知、概念认知、价值认知上的观点错位,影响民众对司法回应的肯定.作为法律适用机关的法院在回应民意上具有不同于政治机关的特点,必须以一种理性、中立的态度审慎地回应民意,做到有理有节、有所为有所不为.在回应过程中,应当根据民意的特点着重处理法意与民意、社会民意与权力意志之间的矛盾冲突关系,为此,必须在回应民意的时机选择与方法操作上遵循司法活动的基本规律.通过认定疑难案件的程序操作,使得外在的民意得以稳定化,以程序阻隔"舆论暴力";通过法律论证的操作,以普遍化、一致性与融贯性三原则检验与提升民意本身的合理性程度,以方法压缩个人恣意.法院的回应是对成熟且理性的民意的回应,建立在个案基础上的回应能逐步挽回民众对法院的信任.     

政府应急处理中的人权保障——以比例原则为视角

作为我国行政应急管理的基本法,《突发事件应对法》通过构建紧急状态下国家和公民活动规则的基本原则与框架,尊重和保持非常时期下的宪法民主制度和公民权利,从而维系宪法保障人权的基本价值。有效处理突发事件要求政府在紧急状态中享有应急特权,而应急权的行使当然应以比例原则来加以规制。我国的《突发事件应对法》对比例原则进行了明确规定,通过其合理适用,比例原则将有力促进政府应急处置权与公民权利之间的平衡,实现法治国家在紧急状态下的人权保障。     

当代先锋文学中的江南文化因素

江南文化的诗性特征和在全国文化版图中得天独厚的领先优势,是当今中国先锋文学的深厚精神和艺术营养。与伦理的北方齐鲁文化以及同处南方的其他文化类型相比,江南文化的审美性带有了某种宗教般的超越性品格。这些深厚的文化积淀在当代先锋文学之中,成为这种新潮审美形式不竭的精神和艺术资源。然而这种继承和吸纳是以一种悖反的方式实现的。     

心律波动信号的1/f噪声特性分析

心律波动信号具有1/f噪声特性,是非平稳的。该文采用平均功率谱密度方法,分析了基于平均功率谱密度和最小二乘拟合法求正常人和心脏充血患者的心律波动信号的谱参数,发现根据谱参数可以定量地区分正常人与心脏充血患者:大部分正常人的心律波动信号的谱参数大于1,而大部分心脏充血患者的心律波动信号的谱参数小于1,该结论可为心脏病的诊断与预诊断提供一种辅助手段。