Predicting infectious disease outbreak risk via migratory waterfowl vectors

The spread of an emerging infectious disease is a major public health threat. Given the uncertainties associated with vector-borne diseases, in terms of vector dynamics and disease transmission, it is critical to develop statistical models that address how and when such an infectious disease could spread throughout a region such as the USA. This paper considers a spatio-temporal statistical model for how an infectious disease could be carried into the USA by migratory waterfowl vectors during their seasonal migration and, ultimately, the risk of transmission of such a disease to domestic fowl. Modeling spatio-temporal data of this type is inherently difficult given the uncertainty associated with observations, complexity of the dynamics, high dimensionality of the underlying process, and the presence of excessive zeros. In particular, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the waterfowl migration are developed by way of a two-tiered functional temporal and spatial dimension reduction procedure that captures spatial and seasonal trends, as well as regional dynamics. Furthermore, the model relates the migration to a population of poultry farms that are known to be susceptible to such diseases, and is one of the possible avenues toward transmission to domestic poultry and humans. The result is a predictive distribution of those counties containing poultry farms that are at the greatest risk of having the infectious disease infiltrate their flocks assuming that the migratory population was infected. The model naturally fits into the hierarchical Bayesian framework.     

危机事件中的网络视频传播与话语分析

随着网络视频的兴起,网络传播进入视频时代：对央视网和优酷网“甲型H1N1流感”议题的网络视频进行对比研究发现,在视频节目来源、话语平台的影响力和话语影响力以及话语呈现和对话机制方面,网络视频官方话语与民间话语的呈现都存在显著差异和一定规律。更为重要的是,网络视频传播在危机事件中的作用日益显著。     

大流感、战争与创伤记忆——《灰色马，灰色的骑手》中的创伤叙事

文学界对凯瑟琳·安·波特的研究多停留在其写作风格上,实际上,如果结合小说的第一次世界大战和1918年大流感爆发的背景来看,她的短篇小说《灰色马,灰色的骑手》是一部创伤小说。其中的创伤叙事不仅有助于个人的创伤修复,更揭露了被帝国战争话语掩盖的集体创伤,是对历史叙事的一次积极补充和修改。     

禽流感疫情管理中的问题与挑战：一项基于家禽风险管理的实证研究*

以往的疫情报告表明,小规模养殖方式的存在是导致疫情爆发的主要根源。如何对小规模养殖方式实施监督是重建整个疫情规训设置的重中之重。然而,调查表明,现有疫情规训机制是基于现代养殖场的风险管理模式建立的,不论“知识-权力”设置,还是管理技术都难以对小规模养殖方式和散养方式实施有效监管。而且,在整个乡村,盛行着工业化养殖文化（现代养殖文化）和有机养殖文化（传统养殖文化）的话语权之争。因此,为了应对碎片化风险管理现状,不仅需要进一步完善现有的“知识-权力”设置,而且需要重新定义工业化养殖文化,以克服现有“混杂性”小规模养殖方式的诟病,真正建立有效的疫情管理机制。     

Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?

The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision-making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the so-called alpha-maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. Moreover, it shows how the shortage and/or lack of effective drugs against the infection of the virus A(H5N1) among humans can be considered a precautionary failure.     

Avian Flu and Embodied Global Imagery: A Study of Pandemic Geopolitics in the Media

Avian influenza is caused by viruses adapted to birds. The causative agents can, in rare cases, spread to humans, although no human-to-human transmission has been demonstrated. However, the mere possibility of mutation into a human form allowed for media, states and international organizations to speculate about the meaning of the disease's movement across species and localities. The hypothetical scenarios focused on national preparedness and resilience. Such imageries of elastic and shock absorbing communities offer insights into how diseases are used to contain and border in an age of vanishing boundaries and interconnected global reaches. This study tracks the historical trajectory of public cognitions regarding avian flu as it turned from an ordinary livestock disease into a hyperbolic mutable ‘killer disease’. Excerpts from articles carried in The New York Times and Helsingin Sanomat, a Finnish mainstream daily, are used to map how the disease turned into a register of the hostilities inherent in the world. In the American public cognition, the tangible disease threat was triggered when the dangers of mutation were associated with China. For the small peripheral Finland, the pandemic scare instigated public imaginaries of a resilient and efficient Nordic society.

La influenza aviar es causada por virus adaptados a los pájaros. En casos raros, los agentes causativos pueden propagarse a humanos, aunque no se ha demostrado ninguna transmisión entre humanos. Sin embargo, la simple posibilidad de mutación a una forma humana, permitió a los medios, estados y organizaciones internacionales especular sobre el sentido del movimiento de la enfermedad entre las especies y localidades. Los escenarios hipotéticos se enfocaron en la preparación y resistencia nacionales. Tales imágenes de comunidades elásticas y absorbentes de impactos ayudan a comprender mejor cómo se usan las enfermedades para contener y colindar fronteras en una época que están desapareciendo y de extensa interconexión global. Este estudio sigue la trayectoria histórica de conocimiento público respecto a la gripa aviar cuando pasó de una enfermedad ordinaria de ganado a una ‘enfermedad mortal’ hiperbólica mutable. Extractos de artículos publicados en el New York Times y el Helsinki Sanomat, un diario finlandés predominante, se usaron para representar cómo la enfermedad se convirtió en un registro de las hostilidades inherentes en el mundo. En el conocimiento americano, la amenaza tangible de la enfermedad se desencadenó cuando los peligros de la mutación fueron asociados con China. Para la pequeña Finlandia, el susto pandémico instigó la imaginación pública de una resistente y eficiente sociedad nórdica.

禽流感是由鸟类携带的病毒引起的。尽管目前还未发现人到人传播的案例,但在某些罕见的情况下,这些病原体可以传染给人类。尽管如此,仅仅是能变异为人类病毒的可能性就足以让媒体、国家和国际组织思考这种跨物种和地域的病毒传播的后果。这种假想关注国家的准备情况和应变能力。这种关于具有弹性和能吸收震荡的社会的意象让我们能够洞察,在一个边界正在消失、各领域相互联系的时代中,疾病可以如何被用来阻止国家边界的消失并界定国家边界。禽流感已经从一种普通的家畜疾病变为一种夸张的可变异的致命疾病。本文追踪了这一公众认知变化的历史轨迹。通过刊登在《纽约时报》和芬兰主流日报《赫尔辛基新闻》上的文章节选,本文表明了禽流感是如何变为各国固有敌意的记录器的。在美国的公众认知中,禽流感在中国的变异危险导致了这场有形的疾病威胁。对于处于边缘的小国芬兰而言,这种禽流感大流行的恐慌驱使公众想象一个灵活高效的北欧社会。

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基于疫情上报意愿的禽流感补偿标准研究

鼓励养殖户及时上报疫情是控制禽流感扩散蔓延、维护社会公众生命安全的重要举措。那么,如果要使养殖户自愿上报疫情,合理的补偿标准应该是多少？利用宁夏中卫沙坡区实地调查数据,采用Heckman两阶段模型分析养殖户上报疫情意愿及其意愿受偿强度的影响因素,进而测算养殖户在愿意上报疫情情景下可接受的补偿标准。散养户和规模养殖户可接受的补偿标准分别平均为22.41元/只、31.87元/只,对5个月龄蛋鸡的意愿受偿标准最高,分别达到35.21元/只、53.55元/只。提出建立疫情损失的联动补偿机制,提高疫情补偿标准,对散养户和规模养殖户实行差异化疫情补偿政策。     

The online news cycle and the continuous alteration of crisis frames: A Swedish case study on how the immediacy of online news affected the framing of the swine flu epidemic

Abstract

This explorative case study investigates how the continuous publication cycle and the immediacy of online news affected the Swedish news media framing of the swine flu epidemic between April and May 2009. The findings suggest that media framing changes continuously, several times a day, effectively painting different frames of the crisis. Consequently, an organization involved in this crisis may face stakeholders that have encountered contrasting frames depending on when they accessed the latest news. Furthermore, the results show that the speed of modifications seems to be highest in the initial stages of reporting when the flu was perceived as more dangerous. Because the crisis frames change constantly, this provides both a challenging crisis communication environment and an opportunity to influence and shape the frames by organizations that are aware of them and act swiftly.     

Poultry and policy in Ghana: Lessons from the periphery of an agricultural policy system

We analyze poultry‐related policy documents from Ghana and ask how the problems identified and the actions proposed have changed over time. The analysis highlights the fact of limited and poor quality data, and associated uncertainty, ambiguity and poor specification of both problems and interventions. It also points to a long‐term commitment to intensive commercial production as the preferred pathway to deliver more animal protein. However, in the face of persistent feed constraints and economic liberalization, imports of frozen chicken have sky‐rocketed since the early 2000s, and a new pathway has come to dominate. We discuss this outcome and what it says more generally about policy around minor crops and livestock species.