Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

重大公共卫生事件中应如何作为:来自医学人类学哈佛学派的启示

聚焦人类学者在针对重大公共卫生事件的跨学科研究中应该有何作为这一议题,通过借鉴来自医学人类学哈佛学派的民族志洞见和研究经验,为当下2019新型冠状病毒疫情危机中所进行的田野观察和分析,以期获得灵感和启示,并探索有可行性和操作性的研究策略和方法。     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

Changing Frameworks in Attitudes Toward Abortion

For more than two decades, legal abortion has been the subject of heated political debate and adversarial social movement activity; however, national polls have shown little change in aggregate levels of support for abortion. This analysis examines how the determinants of abortion attitudes have changed between 1977 and 1996, using data from the General Social Surveys. While in early time periods, whites were more approving of abortion than blacks, that pattern had reversed by the late 1980s. After controlling for other factors, older people are more accepting of abortion throughout the two decades, while gender is generally unrelated to abortion views. Catholic religion weakens slightly as a predictor of abortion attitudes, while religious fundamentalism and political liberalism increase in explanatory power. The associations between attitudinal correlates and abortion approval also change over this time period. Religiosity becomes a less powerful predictor of abortion attitudes, while respondents' attitude toward sexual freedom and belief in the sanctity of human life increase in their predictive power. Support for gender inequality remains a weak but stable predictor of abortion attitudes. This pattern of results suggests that the public is influenced more by the pro-life framework of viewing abortion than by the pro-choice perspective.     

高等数学教学中应用CAI尝试

本文阐明了高等数学自测信息反馈系统的理论内涵 ,介绍了基于数理统计原理制定的新的学生考试成绩评定方法与相应成绩管理软件的基本内容及其在教学实践中的应用功效     

基于WEB的远程教学管理软件分析与设计

本论文主要讨论了基于WEB远程教学管理软件的分析与设计。首先对远程教育与传统教育进行了比较研究,确定远程教育是现代教育发展的方向;其次对开发基于WEB远程教学管理软件进行了环境分析和需求分析;最后讨论了远程教学管理软件的实现,包括软件模块结构设计和网站的总体框架。     

论新闻报道策划的实践意义

新闻报道策划 在近几年的新闻实践中应用非常广泛。就报道主题、整合信息、沟通受众和发挥媒体整体优 势等方面论述了新闻报道策划的实践意义。     

试论近中国茶馆的社会功能

在近代中国 ,茶馆与民众生活紧密相连 ,并承担着广泛而又复杂的社会功能。茶馆与民众的经济生活相关联 ,也是民间纠纷调解的重要场所。同时 ,作为一个公众活动的场所 ,茶馆也是民间社会信息传播的集散地 ;民众在茶馆中表达自己的见解 ,也使得茶馆成为一种控制舆论的力量。茶馆的这些功能是近代民间社会内在运作逻辑的体现。     

高校公用房管理改革探析

高校公用房管理不仅是实物分配的管理,更是有价值资产的管理。通过理顺管理体制和完善管理机制,进行科学调配等手段,用“定额配置、有偿使用”这个经济杠杆来调节资源供求平衡,运用市场经济模式进行公用房管理,以提高公用房的优化配置和管理使用效益。     

论公共管理实践中的“试点”方法

试点是我国公共管理实践中常用的一种方法,是政策制定的一个有机组成部分,为各级公共管理部门所广泛采用。当前我国公共管理部门所开展的试点越来越多,一方面说明试点是一种有效的公共管理方法,有利于提高制度设计的精度和可控性;另一方面也反映当前改革难度日趋加大,改革的不确定性逐渐增强。在实践中,试点方法又面临诸多挑战,影响了试点的内在效度和外在效度。因此,需要加强相关制度建设,以提高试点方法的内在效度与外在效度。