从直觉思维到逻辑思维——浅谈西方逻辑在中国的输入及其影响

从先秦时代起,中国的思想家就致力于逻辑研究,中国逻辑在概念和推理论证等各方面取得了一定成就,但长久以来中国逻辑一直没有形成完整的体系却是不可否认的事实。明清时期,特别是19世纪中叶以后,中国人开始接触到西方逻辑。西方逻辑的系统输入,在一定程度上诱发了中国传统思维方式的变革,对中国文化乃至社会由传统向现代的转型产生了积极影响。     

Variance estimation based on blocked 3×2 cross-validation in high-dimensional linear regression

In high-dimensional linear regression, the dimension of variables is always greater than the sample size. In this situation, the traditional variance estimation technique based on ordinary least squares constantly exhibits a high bias even under sparsity assumption. One of the major reasons is the high spurious correlation between unobserved realized noise and several predictors. To alleviate this problem, a refitted cross-validation (RCV) method has been proposed in the literature. However, for a complicated model, the RCV exhibits a lower probability that the selected model includes the true model in case of finite samples. This phenomenon may easily result in a large bias of variance estimation. Thus, a model selection method based on the ranks of the frequency of occurrences in six votes from a blocked 3×2 cross-validation is proposed in this study. The proposed method has a considerably larger probability of including the true model in practice than the RCV method. The variance estimation obtained using the model selected by the proposed method also shows a lower bias and a smaller variance. Furthermore, theoretical analysis proves the asymptotic normality property of the proposed variance estimation.     

我国股东代表诉讼实用性的经济学分析

设置股东代表诉讼的目的是为了完善公司治理,强化股东的经营监督和抑制违法的作用。但由于股东提起代表诉讼是为了公司和全体股东的利益,如何降低原告股东的诉讼成本对实现股东代表诉讼的立法目的具有重要的意义。     

关于做好电视成就报道的思考

文章着重探讨了电视成就报道的创新方法,在理念上提出以个性化的受众为中心、结合电视传播特点、贴近工作实际;具体方法上则提出以四个方面为突破口,即:通过个人化的视角,贴近生活;用理性思维诠释热点;用情节化的叙述,加深人们的理解;调动多种电视表现手段,增强视觉冲击力.     

长三角地区农民资金互助合作社运行满意度及影响因素分析 ——以泰州市苏陈资金互助合作社为例

农民资金互助合作社是目前准新型农村金融机构在长三角地区的典型代表。基于对江苏省泰州市苏陈资金互助合作社的实地调研,重点考察社员对样本农民资金互助合作社运行的满意度及影响因素。研究发现：样本社社员对于农民资金互助合作社的整体运行情况基本持肯定态度;社员的家庭总收入、政府对农民资金互助合作社的支持力度以及社员在农民资金互助合作社借用的互助金额度,是影响社员对于农民资金互助合作社满意度的主要因素;农民资金互助合作社融资业务的开展,对于社员的农业和二三产业经营均具有正向促进作用;农民资金互助合作社的互助金投放的覆盖面与农村信用合作社等传统农村正规金融机构形成了互补关系。在此基础上,提出了相关政策建议。     

物联网社会冲击的若干思考

物联网即将引发的社会冲击尚未得到足够的重视。预计物联网的社会冲击超过互联网,应大力加强物联网与社会研究。物联网将在社会各个层面上推动社会变革,加速社会变迁的大趋势,导致一系列社会问题,应预先考虑应对策略。     

Diagnostics of multiple group influential observations for logistic regression models

In this paper, two new multiple influential observation detection methods, GCD.GSPR and mCD*, are introduced for logistic regression. The proposed diagnostic measures are compared with the generalized difference in fits (GDFFITS) and the generalized squared difference in beta (GSDFBETA), which are multiple influential diagnostics. The simulation study is conducted with one, two and five independent variable logistic regression models. The performance of the diagnostic measures is examined for a single contaminated independent variable for each model and in the case where all the independent variables are contaminated with certain contamination rates and intensity. In addition, the performance of the diagnostic measures is compared in terms of the correct identification rate and swamping rate via a frequently referred to data set in the literature.     

Toward an integrated Bayesian network approach to measurement error detection and correction

In this article, the quality of data produced by national statistical institutes and by governmental institutions is considered. In particular, the problem of measurement error is analyzed and an integrated Bayesian network decision support system based on non-parametric Bayesian networks is proposed for its detection and correction. Non-parametric Bayesian networks are graphical models expressing dependence structure via bivariate copulas associated to the edges of the graph. The network structure and the misreport probability are estimated using a validation sample. The Bayesian network model is proposed to decide: (i) which records have to be corrected; (ii) the kind and amount of correction to be adopted. The proposed correction procedure is applied to the Banca d’Italia Survey on Household Income and Wealth and, specifically, the bond amounts are analyzed. Finally, the sensitivity of the conditional distribution of the true value random variable given the observed one to different evidence configurations is studied.     

On Hotelling’s T2 test in a special paired sample case

In a special paired sample case, Hotelling’s T² test based on the differences of the paired random vectors is the likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the paired random vectors have the same mean; with respect to a special group of affine linear transformations it is the uniformly most powerful invariant test for the general alternative of a difference in mean. We present an elementary straightforward proof of this result. The likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the covariance structure is of the assumed special form is derived and discussed. Applications to real data are given.     

Estimation of the smallest scale parameter of two-parameter exponential distributions

Improved point and interval estimation of the smallest scale parameter of n independent populations following two-parameter exponential distributions are studied. The model is formulated in such a way that allows for treating the estimation of the smallest scale parameter as a problem of estimating an unrestricted scale parameter in the presence of a nuisance parameter. The classes of improved point and interval estimators are enriched with Stein-type, Brewster and Zidek-type, Maruyama-type and Strawderman-type improved estimators under both quadratic and entropy losses, whereas using as a criterion the coverage probability, with Stein-type, Brewster and Zidek-type, and Maruyama-type improved intervals. The sampling framework considered incorporates important life-testing schemes such as i.i.d. sampling, type-II censoring, progressive type-II censoring, adaptive progressive type-II censoring, and record values.