Prediction of Variables Via Their Order Statistics in Bivariate Elliptical Distributions with Application in the Financial Markets

Assuming that (X₁, X₂) has a bivariate elliptical distribution, we obtain an exact expression for the joint probability density function (pdf) as well as the corresponding conditional pdfs of X₁ and X₍₂₎ ? max?{X₁, X₂}. The problem is motivated by an application in financial markets. Exchangeable random variables are discussed in more detail. Two special cases of the elliptical distributions that is the normal and the student’s t models are investigated. For illustrative purposes, a real data set on the total personal income in California and New York is analyzed using the results obtained. Finally, some concluding remarks and further works are discussed.     

A pilot Monte Carlo study of two sequential estimation procedures based on generalized U-statistics

Recently two sequential estimation procedures based on generalized U-statistics have appeared in the statistical literature [Williams and Sen (1973, 1974)]. One of these procedures concerns the multi-sample problem of estimating a vector of parameters when the total sample size is fixed. The other procedure concerns the multi-sample problem of constructing a confidence ellipsoid of bounded maximum width for a vector of parameters. To supplement the asymptotic theory discussed in these earlier papers, a Monte Carlo study investigating the efficiency of these procedures for moderate sample sizes would be useful. This paper describes a preliminary Monte Carlo study utilizing a small number of replications and performed to provide information for the design of a more extensive study.     

比例失衡、制度变迁与性别和谐--中国妇女参政的新制度主义经济学分析

在倡导人类社会包容性发展的大潮之中，妇女需要提高政治地位以更好的发展，而政治更需要妇女的参与才能促进善政和善治。然而，妇女的政治赋权尚未引起重视，权力尖端女性缺位，公共管理部门女性比例偏低是中国妇女参政不容忽视的问题。问题的根源在于制度上的缺陷，从而将女性置于政治边缘。基于此，提出强制性与诱致性制度变迁相结合的模式，促进政治文明建设与权力领域中的男女平等，实现政治领域中的公平正义。     

Actuarial balance sheets as a tool to assess the sustainability of social security pension systems

The choice of the methodology used to produce a social security pension system's balance sheet is mainly determined by the system's financing approach. In this article, it is shown using the example of the Canada Pension Plan that if the assessment of the financial sustainability of a pay‐as‐you‐go or partially funded system is done through the means of an actuarial balance sheet, then the methodology used should take into account future contributions of current and future participants. The balance sheets produced using the open group approach, as well as methodologies used in United States and Sweden, are discussed.     

“It’s a joke,I do not accept”: Derrida’s Demanding Call and Other Dead Voices

By 1975 the Plateau Beaubourg (“beautiful village”) and the entirety of the land known as the Les Halles section of Paris had been subject to an extensive programme of reconstruction inaugurated some 22 years earlier. During the demolition phase of the project, the area took on the general appellation “Le trou des Halles” (The hole of Les Halles) or “Le grand trou”. The old Les Halles car park became the projected site for the Centre Georges Pompidou. The American artist Gordon Matta‐Clark chose to work at Plateau Beaubourg precisely because of the controversy caused by the demolition and subsequent dispersal of the community, as well as the projected nature of the future site as a cultural centre. The resulting artwork, Conical Intersect (1975), and its problematic critical reception provide a series of interpretive opportunities that form the matrix of this essay. Conical Intersect recalls, on the one hand, a history of place, whilst, on the other hand, dramatising a situation where communities are evicted from the land: dispersed, made powerless. The specific form and reception of the artwork illustrates the tension between the narratives of historical progress — as embodied, for example, in the construction of the Pompidou Centre — and the destruction of site that was its prerequisite. This cultural tension is the subject and object of this essay as Conical Intersect becomes, by way of its particular morphology and its own inevitable erasure (its self‐effacement), emblematic of memory, loss, condescension and contradiction, artistic and “political” naivety, confusion and the powerlessness of communities over the possession and use of the land.     

An implicit function based procedure for analyzing maximum likelihood estimates from nonidentically distributed data

A methodology is presented for gaining insight into properties — such as outlier influence, bias, and width of confidence intervals — of maximum likelihood estimates from nonidentically distributed Gaussian data. The methodology is based on an application of the implicit function theorem to derive an approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator. This approximation, unlike the maximum likelihood estimator, is expressed in closed form and thus it can be used in lieu of costly Monte Carlo simulation to study the properties of the maximum likelihood estimator.     

Modeling distances between humans using Taylor’s law and geometric probability

Taylor’s law states that the variance of the distribution of distance between two randomly chosen individuals is a power function of the mean distance. It applies to the distances between two randomly chosen points in various geometric shapes, subject to a few conditions. In Réunion Island and metropolitan France, at some spatial scales, the empirical frequency distributions of inter-individual distances are predicted accurately by the theoretical frequency distributions of inter-point distances in models of geometric probability under a uniform distribution of points. When these models fail to predict the empirical frequency distributions of inter-individual distances, they provide baselines against which to highlight the spatial distribution of population concentrations.     

浅析毛泽东诗词中的隐喻

本文试图运用当代隐喻学理论对毛泽东诗词进行研究。以莱考夫的概念隐喻理论为圭臬,通览毛泽东的67首诗词作品,收集其中的隐喻例证,并按内容进行分类。在语料归纳的基础上,对其认知机制、文化等因素进行分析。研究表明:这些隐喻因其人类的共同经验而具有很大的普遍性,是人类通过文学创作认识世界的重要手段;同时我们也看到,中国独特的神话、宗教、文化、典故等因素也使得这些隐喻呈现出自己的特点。     

浙东渔民口头常用语的类型及特点探析

浙东渔民口头常用语形式多样、言简意赅、通俗易懂,既有鲜明的地方特色,又体现出渔民的特定行业特征,具有较高的研究价值。通过比较系统地分析和概括宁波、舟山两地一些常见的渔民口头用语,不仅可以从涉及内容、表现形式、修辞风格等方面揭示出它们的一些基本类型和独到的语言运用特点,而且可以从一个侧面展现出特定的渔民口头常用语的基本规律和特殊魅力以及丰富深邃的文化内涵。