世博会与浦东商业新一轮发展战略

运用SWOT-PEST 矩阵分析法，可以分析世博会对浦东商业的影响及政策、浦东商业发展的内在优势及存在的问题，认为浦东商业发展的应对策略可从多业联动、人才提升、制度创新、合纵联横、网络营销、特色经营等方面加以开拓。     

Bayesian model selection for D‐vine pair‐copula constructions

In recent years analyses of dependence structures using copulas have become more popular than the standard correlation analysis. Starting from Aas et al. ( 2009 ) regular vine pair‐copula constructions (PCCs) are considered the most flexible class of multivariate copulas. PCCs are involved objects but (conditional) independence present in data can simplify and reduce them significantly. In this paper the authors detect (conditional) independence in a particular vine PCC model based on bivariate t copulas by deriving and implementing a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. However, the methodology is general and can be extended to any regular vine PCC and to all known bivariate copula families. The proposed approach considers model selection and estimation problems for PCCs simultaneously. The effectiveness of the developed algorithm is shown in simulations and its usefulness is illustrated in two real data applications. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 239–258; 2011 © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

Non‐parametric interval estimation for the partial area under the ROC curve

Accurate diagnosis of disease is a critical part of health care. New diagnostic and screening tests must be evaluated based on their abilities to discriminate diseased conditions from non‐diseased conditions. For a continuous‐scale diagnostic test, a popular summary index of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the area under the curve (AUC). However, when our focus is on a certain region of false positive rates, we often use the partial AUC instead. In this paper we have derived the asymptotic normal distribution for the non‐parametric estimator of the partial AUC with an explicit variance formula. The empirical likelihood (EL) ratio for the partial AUC is defined and it is shown that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi‐square distribution. Hybrid bootstrap and EL confidence intervals for the partial AUC are proposed by using the newly developed EL theory. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to compare the relative performance of the proposed intervals and existing intervals for the partial AUC. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended intervals. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 17–33; 2011 © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

谈2010年版《国际贸易术语解释通则》

《国际贸易术语解释通则》是国际贸易中重要的贸易惯例,目前国际商会已经对其完成了第7次修订。与Incoterms2000相比较,Incoterms2010在内容上、结构上以及适用范围上都有所不同,并且Incoterms2010在术语下的指引、电子通讯、保险条款等方面都有所细化,使其适用更加方便,适应了国际贸易发展的需要。