Migration and foreign trade: Further results

In this note, we use the production-theory approach to immigration in an open-economy setting to investigate the role of nonresident workers in Swiss aggregate production. Unlike earlier work in this area, exports are explicitly taken into account. Indeed, a statistical test for global separability between inputs and outputs reveals that exports and products intended for domestic use cannot be aggregated. Our results show that immigration tends to stimulate imports and to shift the output mix towards nontraded goods, thereby impacting negatively on the trade account. Received: 24 March 1999/Accepted: 4 January 2001     

Do Lower Top Marginal Tax Rates Slow the Income Growth of Workers?

Top marginal tax rates are positively correlated with the pretax income growth of the bottom 90 per cent — those who are not subject to the top rates. To explain this correlation, this paper presents and tests a model in which executives can increase firm profitability by (i) increasing the firm's level of technology and (ii) decreasing labor costs. In the model, higher marginal tax rates may reduce pretax inequality by increasing the average income growth of workers. This hypothesis is tested by examining the effect of top marginal tax rates on (unobserved) relative bargaining power between labor and firms and, therefore, on the income growth of workers in the USA. Bargaining power, in both the theoretical and the empirical models, is proxied by private‐sector unionization and use of offshore labor resulting in higher imports.     

Wage Expectations for Higher Education Students in Spain

We assess students' ability to forecast future earnings by using data on expected wages self‐reported by college students with different graduation horizons. We find a significant gender gap, by which wage expectations are systematically lower for women than for men. However, women do not fully account for the gender gap in their future earnings. We also find that student performance, degree type, and graduation horizon play a relevant role in wage forecasts. In any case, students' expectations do not conform market wages but become more realistic as they approach graduation.     

Impact of the Minimum Wage on Youth Labor Markets

We study the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes for young workers using US county‐level panel data from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2009. We go beyond the usual estimates of earnings and employment effects to consider how differences across states in the minimum wage affect worker turnover via separations and accessions and job turnover through new job creation and job losses. We find that a higher minimum wage level is associated with higher earnings, lower employment and reduced worker turnover for those in the 14–18 age group. For workers aged 19–21 and 22–24, we find less consistent evidence of minimum wage effects on earnings and employment. But, even for these age groups, a higher minimum wage is found to reduce accessions, separations and the turnover rate.     

QUANTIFYING THE PREMIUM EXTERNALITY OF THE UNINSURED

In insurance markets, the uninsured can generate a negative externality on the insured, leading insurance companies to charge higher premia. Using a novel panel data set and a staggered policy change that introduces exogenous variation in the rate of uninsured drivers at the county level in California, we find that uninsured drivers lead to higher insurance premia: a 1 percentage point increase in the rate of uninsured drivers raises premia by roughly 1%. We calculate the monetary fine on the uninsured that would fully internalize the externality and conclude that actual fines in most US states are inefficiently low.     

UNBUNDLING THE INCUMBENT: EVIDENCE FROM UK BROADBAND

We consider the impact of a regulatory process forcing an incumbent telecom operator to make its local broadband network available to other companies (local loop unbundling, or LLU). Entrants are then able to upgrade their individual lines and offer Internet services directly to customers. Employing a very detailed data set covering the whole of the United Kingdom, we find that, over the course of time, many entrants have begun to take advantage of unbundling. LLU entry only had a positive effect on broadband penetration in the early years, and no longer in the recent years as the market reached maturity. In contrast, LLU entry continues to have a positive impact on the quality of the service provided, as entrants differentiate their products upwards compared to the incumbent. We also assess the impact of competition from an alternative form of technology (cable) which is not subject to regulation, and what we discover is that inter‐platform competition has a positive impact on both penetration and quality.     

Hunger and migration in a rural-traditional area in the nineteenth century

The factors that influenced migration decisions in a nineteenth century rural-traditional area of the Netherlands are assessed. This is done in a micro-setting. Applying a new data set with individual characteristics of both migrants and non-migrants a logit-model is estimated. The analysis supports the revisionist and relatively positive picture of the standard of living in pre-modern rural-traditional areas. Instead of hunger driving the masses away from these areas, it seems to have tied rationally acting people to a socio-economic system that contained buffer mechanisms to cope with short run stresses. Received: 28 April 1998/Received: 26 April 1999     

Determinants of family migration: short moves vs. long moves

This paper examines factors underlying family migration. Based on a sample of stable Finnish families, both short- and long-distance migration is investigated. The empirical analysis carried out using multinomial logit modelling shows a strong negative association between the family life-cycle and migration. The findings indicate that migration takes place mainly due to the demands of the husbands career, resulting in the wives being tied migrants. Two-earner families are less migratory, and in that sense the husbands are tied stayers. Distance matters; several differences are noticed between short- and long-distance migrants.Financial support from the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation (project no. 4271) is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on this paper. I also wish to thank Kari Hälänen, Sari Pekkala and Hannu Tervo for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

UNCERTAINTY,PERSISTENCE, AND HETEROGENEITY: A PANEL DATA PERSPECTIVE

The purpose of this paper is to review newly developed identification and estimation tools that are relevant for the analysis of dynamic dependence structures of income risk. I present an application to nonlinear permanent–transitory models of household income using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), but the empirical approach is more generally applicable. Household income processes are of interest because the size of shocks, the nature of their persistence, and cross‐household heterogeneity are all important to understand how income inequality varies with age and cohort and how it translates into consumption inequality. I argue that going from an econometrics of autocovariances to an econometrics of flexible distributions is feasible and has the potential to reveal richer aspects of risk—for example, nonlinear persistence of unusual shocks.     

Influencing factors to have an additional child by working women in Korea

This study aims to explore the effects of individual and regional characteristics on working women’s intention of additional childbirth in Korea. Since most the individuals generally revolve within their own hierarchically structured regions, data from 2012 Population and Housing Census Statistics are utilized in the analysis. The hierarchical generalized liner model is employed to find out the effects of individual and regional factors, while comparisons of these results are made using the binary logistic model. And finally, Heckman 2-stage model is applied in order to determine if selection bias is present. The results indicate that the working women ultimately deal with economic aspects on their decision for additional childbirth. Regional characteristics variables, namely unemployment rate, city type, private education cost, workplace daycare facilities and government budget for childcare, reflect economic aspects in households. These findings address important policy implications to overcome low fertility rate in the era of increasing number of working women.