IS ADAPTIVE ESTIMATION USEFUL FOR PANEL MODELS WITH HETEROSKEDASTICITY IN THE INDIVIDUAL SPECIFIC ERROR COMPONENT? SOME MONTE CARLO EVIDENCE

This paper first derives an adaptive estimator when heteroskedasticity is present in the individual specific error in an error component model and then compares the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator with various other estimators. While the Monte Carlo results show that the proposed estimator performs adequately in terms of relative efficiency, its performance on the basis of empirical size is quite similar to the other estimators considered.     

A MECHANISM DESIGN APPROACH TO CLIMATE‐CHANGE AGREEMENTS

We take a mechanism design perspective to investigate how environmental agreements should account for multilateral externalities, incentive compatibility, and voluntary participation by sovereign countries. The optimal mechanism involves a tradeoff between a free rider problem in the effort provision of participating countries and the necessity of inducing countries to ratify the agreement. This mechanism can be approximated by a simple menu with attractive implementation and robustness properties. Limits on enforcement and commitment might nevertheless hinder the performance of this menu, making the “business as usual” scenario more likely.     

Modelling household income dynamics

This paper is about income and poverty dynamics and their socioeconomic correlates. The first half of the paper aims to establish some of the salient facts for Britain, applying the pioneering methods of Bane and Ellwood (1986). Important for poverty dynamics are changes in labour earnings from persons other than the household head, changes in non-labour income (including benefits), and changes in household composition, in addition to changes in the heads' labour earnings. The second half of the paper is a review and critique of the multivariate modelling frameworks which might be used to explain and forecast these salient facts for Britain or elsewhere. Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 22 July 1999     

Macroeconomic imbalances in Europe: How to overcome the fallacy of unit labour costs

Policy recommendations based on unit labour costs (ULC) indices can lead to undesirable and counterproductive policies, because they do not reveal possible distortions in the base year. In this paper, we discuss the problems with the ULC-current account relation and provide an alternative measure for relative wage costs called Wage Competitive index (WCI) based on the assumption of convergence of the returns on capital. We show how to calculate it and that it is more efficient than traditional ULC and REER indicators. The implication is that policymakers should not focus on nominal wage setting only, but also more broadly on all factors which affect the return on capital. This implies that the well-known Rehn–Meidner rule, which underlies the Macroeconomic Dialogue should be modified.     

ATTITUDES,POLICIES, AND WORK

We study whether cultural attitudes towards gender, the young, and leisure are significant determinants of the employment rates of women and of the young, and of hours worked. We do this controlling for policies, institutions and other structural characteristics of the economy which may influence labor market outcomes. We identify the effect of culture exploiting the evolution over time within country, as well as across countries, of cultural attitudes. We also address the endogeneity of attitudes, policies, and institutions, and allow for the persistent nature of labor market outcomes. We find that culture matters for women's employment rates and for hours worked. However, policies, in particular employment protection legislation and taxes, are also important and their quantitative impact substantial.     

The ageing of society, health services provision and taxes

This paper investigates the outcome of ageing on taxes and hospitalisation of the elderly using panel data on 23 Swedish county councils 1980–1999. We test two hypotheses; whether a larger share of elderly has no negative effect on bed days per elderly person and no positive effect on tax rates. We reject the first hypothesis but fail to reject the second hypothesis. Further we cannot reject the hypothesis of a unitary elasticity of the share of elderly on bed days per elderly person. These results imply that the old bear the entire cost of adjustment when the population grows older.     

DOES RELATIONSHIP SPECIFIC INVESTMENT DEPEND ON ASSET OWNERSHIP? EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT IN THE HOUSING MARKET

In this paper, I test the most basic prediction of Grossman and Hart (1986, The Costs and Benefits of Ownership: A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration. Journal of Political Economy, 691–719): allocations of asset ownership that expose a party to ex‐post expropriation reduce this party’s ex‐ante relationship‐specific investments. In the empirical context of the German housing market, I find that relationship‐specific investments, such as bathroom renovations, are more frequent if the occupant is protected against expropriation because he owns his home. To avoid the endogeneity of the homeownership allocation, I rely on the natural experiment of the German reunification: under the communist regime, ownership existed but was economically meaningless; yet after reunification, ownership unexpectedly reacquired legal force.     

Young chains and rank orders

Savage (1956) obtained an easily applied necessary condition for the admissibility of two-sample rank tests under alternatives having a monotone likelihood ratio. This condition is: rank order Z is more likely than rank order Z' if the Z-path is above the Z'-path in Young's lattice. This condition is easily applied and allows not only the proof of the inadmissibility of the Wilcoxon test under Lehmann alternatives but it can also be used to construct explicitly uniformly better tests. For Lehmann alternatives, we obtain another necessary criterion on rank orders which makes use of dominance.     

Intellectual property rights,informal economy,and FDI into developing countries

We explore the relationship between intellectual property rights (IPR), the informal economy, and foreign direct investment (FDI) into developing countries. Intuitively, stronger IPR protection attracts more FDI in countries with small informal economies but not in countries with large informal economies. The intuition is that the informal economy is a proxy for the quality of institutions. In institutionally strong countries, IPR protection promotes FDI by reducing illegal imitation and freeing up more resources for MNCs. Our empirical analysis, based on a threshold effect model, provides some evidence supportive of our model.     

The impact of adult and non-adult mortality on development: Two centuries evidence from a panel of industrial countries

This study examines the effects of adult and non-adult mortality on the long-run level of income in a heterogeneous dynamic and cross-sectionally dependent panel. Employing data for 20 countries between 1800 and 2010, it is found that (i) while non-adult mortality has no long-run effect on GDP per capita, reductions in adult mortality lead to statistically and economically significant increases in the long-run level of per capita income; (ii) there are no significant differences in the long-run effects of adult mortality and non-adult mortality on GDP per capita before and after the onset of the demographic transition; and (iii) mortality in middle adulthood has the greatest impact on economic development, whereas early adulthood mortality and mortality in later adulthood have little to no impact on the long-run level of per capita income.