An evaluation of the Tokyo Round trade agreement using general equilibrium computational methods

An empirically based general equilibrium model involving the United States, Japan, the (nine-member) EEC, and a residual rest of the world is used to evaluate the Tokyo Round trade agreement negotiated under the GATT. Equilibria for post-Agreement policy regimes are computed and compared to a pre-Agreement equilibrium. Results indicate small aggregate welfare impacts but more significant terms of trade effects. Losses seem likely for Third World countries due to an adverse terms of trade change. Under some assumptions the changes in NTB codes produce more significant effects than the tariff cuts in the Agreement.     

从文化编码理论看“经”与“纬”的传统文化阐释

文化N级编码理论强调了实物材料的重要性,并将文化理解为一种生成性的叠加过程,这为传统文化的探究提供了重要启示。由于汉字显著的图画象形特质,在揭示传统文化和思维方面有着拼音文字所不具备的优势,从汉字入手,可以体察文化原初的意义,破解后代象征符号的文化基因。本文结合文化N级编码论对“经”与“纬”二字进行了文化阐释,“经”“纬”本是指织布机上的“纵线”和“横线”,但在历史演变过程中,二者被赋予了截然不同的文化含义,“纬”的义项在引申的深度和广度方面都大不如“经”,“经书”和“纬书”的历史地位也有很大差异。本文试图揭示这种文化差异产生的深层原因。     

The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Presence of Immunes in a Censored Sample

Models for populations with immune or cured individuals but with others subject to failure are important in many areas, such as medical statistics and criminology. One method of analysis of data from such populations involves estimating an immune proportion 1 ? p and the parameter(s) of a failure distribution for those individuals subject to failure. We use the exponential distribution with parameter λ for the latter and a mixture of this distribution with a mass 1 ? p at infinity to model the complete data. This paper develops the asymptotic theory of a test for whether an immune proportion is indeed present in the population, i.e., for H ₀:p = 1. This involves testing at the boundary of the parameter space for p. We use a likelihood ratio test for H ₀. and prove that minus twice the logarithm of the likelihood ratio has as an asymptotic distribution, not the chi-square distribution, but a 50–50 mixture of a chi-square distribution with 1 degree of freedom, and a point mass at 0. The result is proved under an independent censoring assumption with very mild restrictions.     

“甲型H1N1流感”之语言生成

语言静态是相对的,动态是绝对的。当下“猪流感”到“甲型H1N1流感”术语变更的实际情形表明,语言生成会经过“基础、修正、生成”的直线过程,经受从言语到语言的心理认知过程。     

基于甲型H1N1流感疫情的应急物流体系流程研究

应急物流的高效运作能够降低突发事件造成的危害,因而得到了理论界的广泛关注。鉴于甲流感疫情下我国防控工作的严峻性,在指出我国现阶段应急物流中存在的问题并提出相关建议后,构建了疫情防控工作下的应急物流体系,并对每个流程做了详细阐述。     

Variable selection and estimation for multivariate panel count data via the seamless‐${\it L}_{{\rm 0}}$ penalty

This paper considers regression analysis of multivariate panel count data with the focus on variable selection and estimation of significant covariate effects. For the problem, we adopt the penalized estimating equation approach with a focus on the use of the seamless‐$L_0$ penalty. The proposed approach selects variables and estimates regression coefficients simultaneously and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimates are established. The procedure can be easily carried out with the Newton–Raphson algorithm and is evaluated by simulation studies. Also it is applied to a motivating data set arising from a skin cancer study. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 368–385; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

Use of Dummy Variables in Testing for Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions: A Note

Elementary inductive proofs are presented for the binomial approximation to the hypergeometric distribution, the density of an order statistic, and the distribution of when X ₁, ···, X _n are a sample from N (μ, 1).     

MANAGERS AND (SECRET) SOCIAL NETWORKS: THE INFLUENCE OF THE FREEMASONRY ON FIRM PERFORMANCE

In this paper, I study the impact of managers’ affiliations with the Freemasonry on the performances of companies. Using a unique data set of 412 companies quoted on the London Stock Exchange between 1895 and 1902, I find that young and small firms run by Masonic managers exhibited larger leverage ratios. These companies earned higher profits, although the effect is not statistically significant. Large publicly quoted corporations managed by Freemasons instead had lower profits and lower Tobin’s Q. I discuss the issue of the endogeneity of Freemasonry membership, and I use four different approaches to partially address this.