广西北部湾经济区行政区划调整研究

广西北部湾经济区由南宁、北海、钦州、防城港四市所辖行政区域组成。目前各市间合作层次不深,政务服务缺乏联动;政策雷同,冲突明显,产业结构趋同;港口及交通基础设施建设不协调;行政管理幅度过小,不利于资源整合和结构升级。建议将近海沿边的崇左、玉林两市并入,并把地理位置上相邻的市两两合并,即南宁与钦州合并,防城港与崇左合并,北海与玉林合并,以促进北部湾经济区龙头的形成,进而带动区域经济的快速发展,为北部湾经济区发展成为中国区域经济新一极奠定基础。     

试论我国职业技术教育的专业设置与调整

职业技术教育的专业设计和调整是由社会和经济发展的客观需求决定的。市场经济条件下,职业技术教育要根据区域经济生产特点,科学设计职业教育的专业布局;根据区域经济结构变化,合理调整职业教育的专业结构;根据科学技术的进步与应用,适时增设新专业并正确处理好社会需求与主观可能的关系。促进我国职业技术教育与社会、经济协调健康发展。     

战后日本国际教育的政策调整

战后日本经济的迅速恢复和发展,推动了它的国际化进程。日本对国际化的追求,使日本政府在教育领域适时地调整了留学生交流制度等对外教育政策;其对外教育政策转向以人员交流为主的、外向"发射型"的方向发展;日本对外教育政策的调整与国际化之间形成了良性的互动关系。     

上海农业专业合作社现状及支持对策

上海农业专业合作社在加快农村产业结构调整、推动城乡一体化发展进程中发挥了重要作用,但在管理和经营等方面也出现不少问题。上海应完善合作社的准入与退出机制,鼓励多种出资方式,提升合作社的营销效能,完善合作社的财务公开制度、内部会议控制制度和盈余分配制度,引导和帮助农业合作社更"专业"、更"合作",以实现上海"十二五"规划提出的"加强农村集体资产、资金、资源管理,深化农村集体经济组织产权制度改革,切实保障农民利益"的根本目标。     

Adaptation to unemployment: Effects of a mine closure on husbands and wives

The purpose of this study was to increase understanding of how individuals/couples respond to the unemployment of the primary breadwinner. Data were collected from 66 individuals (33 couples) shortly after becoming unemployed and again one year later. Results determined that the significant predictor variables of economic satisfaction, marital adjustment, and depression were primarily economic, marital, and emotional variables, respectively. Findings also showed that interaction existed among economic, marital, and emotional variables in predicting the three well-being outcomes. Additionally, differences were found in the pattern of results for husbands and for wives. Based on these findings, areas and hypotheses for future study are proposed.Carl A. Ridley received his Ph.D. from Florida State University. He is a Professor in the Division of Child Development and Family Relations, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721. His research interests include relationships and conflict management.Mari S. Wilhelm received her Ph.D. from Michigan State University. She is an Assistant Professor in the School of Family and Consumer Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721. Her research interests include financial management, socio-economic stress, financial stress and problems.     

Home care reimbursement for technology-dependent children: Its impact on parental distress

The distress of 52 parents with a technology-dependent child at home is measured using a standardized psychological inventory. Fifty-eight percent of these parents report enough symptoms to classify them as needing psychiatric intervention. Cost savings to third-party payers are accelerating the trend toward home care (rather than institutionalized care). Yet, these findings point to an underestimated cost to families in terms of parents' psychological well-being. One factor associated with less distress for mothers is having services reimbursed through the Medicaid Model Waiver Program, which provides a comprehensive plan for home care services. In contrast, services reimbursed by private third-party payers are more variable, placing greater financial strain and uncertainty on parents, which is associated with greater psychological distress. These results suggest the need for further study of the long-term impact on parents caring for technology-dependent children at home.Reprint requests to Barbara J. Leonard, R.N., Ph.D., Maternal and Child Health Major, Division of Human Development and Nutrition, School of Public Health, Box 197 UMHC, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, (612) 625-3660.This study was supported in part by BRSG Number 2-S07-RR05448-25 awarded to the University of Minnesota, School of Public Health by the Biomedical Research Grant Program, Division of Research and Resources, National Institute of Health. Additional support was provided by the Department of Health and Human Services, State of Minnesota, Academic Computing Services and Systems, University of Minnesota and special project funds from the University of Minnesota School of Public Health.Barbara J. Leonard is an Assistant Professor and Chair of the Maternal and Child Health Major, Division of Human Development and Nutrition, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, MN 55455. Her research interests include children with developmental disabilities, their parents, and siblings. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota.Janny Dwyer Brust is a Research Fellow in the Maternal and Child Health Major at the University of Minnesota. Her research interests include issues related to the care of chronically ill children and sexually abused children. She received her M.P.H. from the University of Minnesota.Joan Patterson is an Assistant Professor in the Maternal and Child Health Major and Associate Director of the Center for Children with Chronic Illness and Disability at the University of Minnesota. Her research interests include family adaptation to chronic illness and family stress and coping. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota.     

驻韩美军基地整合及其动向效应

适逢朝核危机白热化之际 ,美国提出对驻韩美军基地进行重新整合 ,必然有其深刻意含。整合拟分两阶段进行。整合后的驻韩美军不仅将具备更强大的震慑力量和更快速的反应能力 ,亦将成为美国构建全球范围下国家安全战略网络的先驱部队。重新部署驻韩美军是美国早已确定的全球范围下驻军调整行动的一部分 ,但此举无疑将加深朝鲜半岛南北双方的忧虑。这对本已危机重重的半岛问题而言 ,无疑又楔入了一个危险参数 ,其作用的敏感性及其动向效应引起了东北亚国家的高度关注     

论大学生挫折情绪及其调节

挫折情绪困扰是大学生群体中比较突出和普遍的问题。研究大学生挫折情绪及其调节有利于开发大学生的智能,促进大学生的身心健康,培育大学生的优良品德,具有重要的理论和实践价值。只有健全大学生的心理自卫机制和行为方式,才能有效对付挫折,调节情绪。     

A Sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Set-up Adjustment of a Process over a Set of Lots

We consider the problem of adjusting a machine that manufactures parts in batches or lots and experiences random offsets or shifts whenever a set-up operation takes place between lots. The existing procedures for adjusting set-up errors in a production process over a set of lots are based on the assumption of known process parameters. In practice, these parameters are usually unknown, especially in short-run production. Due to this lack of knowledge, adjustment procedures such as Grubbs' (1954, 1983) rules and discrete integral controllers (also called EWMA controllers) aimed at adjusting for the initial offset in each single lot, are typically used. This paper presents an approach for adjusting the initial machine offset over a set of lots when the process parameters are unknown and are iteratively estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). As each observation becomes available, a Gibbs Sampler is run to estimate the parameters of a hierarchical normal means model given the observations up to that point in time. The current lot mean estimate is then used for adjustment. If used over a series of lots, the proposed method allows one eventually to start adjusting the offset before producing the first part in each lot. The method is illustrated with application to two examples reported in the literature. It is shown how the proposed MCMC adjusting procedure can outperform existing rules based on a quadratic off-target criterion.     

PPI与CPI关系及我国通货膨胀治理

 PPI和CPI关系是宏观经济研究热点问题之一。通过TS季节调整模型和HP滤波方法对1993年1月-2010年7月定基PPI和CPI进行分解，得到趋势、季节、不规则和循环因素。发现两者的趋势、季节和不规则因素间的传导和“倒挂”不显著，增强了用循环因素研究两者关系的科学性。研究发现，（1）两者间传导和“倒挂”交替出现，分别经历两个周期，均在第二周期波谷处逆转。传导和“倒挂”时隔有明显周期。（2）2003年前PPI向CPI传导的原因为投资膨胀、卖方市场等。2003年后PPI与CPI“倒挂”的原因除投资膨胀外，有效需求不足，买方市场，粮食和住房价格上涨等。（3）针对当前通货膨胀特点，提出有别于要素价格管制和货币紧缩政策，可解决物价的长期深层矛盾。