USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail-order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.     

A DISCRETE DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR MADE-TO-ORDER COST ANALYSIS

A model is presented that yields optimal production rates for a firm producing a contracted order. The model is unique in that it considers the influence of production rate and learning on total program cost. An application to the specific characteristics of two military production programs is presented. As demonstrated by the application, models of this type may be used as decision-making tools when negotiating the cost impact of contract modifications.     

教师继续教育中实施CEA混成学习课程的探索

为了丰富教师培训形式,融合课堂学习、在线学习、行动学习,构建了CEA混成学习课程。课程效果主要取决于培训者的积极主动意识以及三种课程形式的有机结合。     

顾客导向和创新导向对企业绩效的影响机制研究

在市场导向相关研究的基础上.本文探索了顾客导向(Customer Orientation)以及创新导向(Innovation Orientation)经由组织学习(Organizational Learning)对公司绩效(Firm Performance)的影响.通过对欧洲的390家制造企业的调查.发现顾客导向和创新导向都对组织学习产生正向影响,组织学习提高了公司的新产品绩效(New Product Performance).最终提升了公司绩效.最后,文章讨论了本研究的理论和实践意义,以及未来的研究方向.     

Attachment and leader's development via experiences

Apart from biographies and memoirs of outstanding leaders, studies on the development of leaders in everyday life from childhood to maturity are rare. We propose a developmental model of leaders in which certain variables formed in early childhood are the basic components for leadership development in later life. These are a low level of trait anxiety [Spielberger, C.D. (1972). Conceptual and methodological issues in anxiety research. In C.D. Spielberger (Ed.), Anxiety: Current trends in theory and research. New York: Academic Press, vol. 1] and openness to experiences [Costa, P.T. Jr., & McCrae, R.R. (1992a). Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) and NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources]. We argue that secure attachment style [Bowlby, J. (1969). Attachment and loss: Vol. 1. Attachment. New York: Basic Books] explains the formation and influence of these basic components, which in turn affect the leader's development through experience in leadership roles. Questionnaires were administered to 286 subjects. The data obtained were analyzed by structural equation modeling (SEM).The findings show that trait anxiety and openness to experience affect leaders' development via experiences. Alternative models in which formative variables may affect the magnitude and intensity of leadership experiences are discussed.     

战略导向、组织学习对产品创新的影响研究

本文对战略导向影响产品创新的路径进行了研究,发现不同战略导向对学习活动有不同的选择倾向,而不同类型的学习活动也会对产品创新产生不同的影响。本研究不仅弥补了应用性学习与探索性学习研究的不足,也有助于企业引导和利用组织学习来提高产品创新水平,为管理实践提供理论参考。     

组织派系中的“小世界”对知识扩散的影响研究评述

企业及学校中的"团队"建设和"团队"教学无不体现着小世界模型对于组织派系内创新知识的传播和培训效果的迁移的指导作用.本文介绍了小世界社会网络模型的基本特征和理论来源,以及它在实际工作和教学学习中的运用,并在最后提出了该模型进一步发展的趋势.     

基于企业学习策略的集群持续创新机制及实证研究

由于集群网络的复杂性,集群创新机制的研究目前较为缺乏,有限的研究也往往假设集群企业具有同质性.本文提出,集群企业依据其在集群网络中的位置采用不同的学习策略,领导型企业更加侧重于探索式学习,跟随型企业更加侧重于利用式学习,两者的分工和异质性互动构成了集群持续创新的内在机理.本文在个体和企业层次双重学习研究的基础上,结合集群特有的组织条件,提出集群双重学习的机制,据此将集群企业进行分类,并建立集群中企业学习的理论模型,接着选取国内某地化工产业集群的236家企业作为样本,运用结构方程模型对集群中企业进行分类检验和比较研究.研究结果表明,集群中不同类型企业的学习策略存在差异,集群网络的作用是产生这一差异的可能原因;集群中不同类型企业的学习策略具有互补性,有利于企业间互动和集群的持续创新.     

The use of constructive-developmental theory to advance the understanding of leadership

Constructive-developmental theory is a stage theory of adult development that focuses on the growth and elaboration of a person's ways of understanding the self and the world. In this article we review how the constructive-developmental frameworks of Kegan [Kegan, R. (1982). The evolving self: Problem and process in human development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press], Torbert [Torbert, W. R. (1987). Managing the corporate dream: Restructuring for long-term success. Homewood, IL: Dow Jones-Irwin.], and Kohlberg [Kohlberg, L. (1969). Stage and sequence: The cognitive developmental approach to socialization. In D. Goslin (Ed.), Handbook of socialization: Theory and research. New York: Rand McNally] have been applied in the theoretical and empirical literature on leadership and management. Although the literature has produced a number of propositions, the notion that a leader's order of development should impact his or her leadership effectiveness or managerial performance has generated the most research. We found mixed support for this proposition as well as a number of limitations in the research in general. To have a greater impact on the leadership field, constructive-developmental theory needs to generate more robust research, to link more clearly with on-going streams of leadership research, and to explore the contribution of aspects of the theory beyond individual order of development.