东亚合作的新态势及中国的战略选择

当前东亚合作形势出现了一些新态势:中国的兴起使"机遇论"和"威胁论"同时上升,外部环境更加复杂;美国重返东南亚,试图主导东亚及亚太合作进程;日澳等国提出区域合作新构想;东盟"大国平衡"战略更为明显,东亚合作政策将趋于内向保守。鉴于此,笔者提出了"一个重点(中美协调)"、"两个轴心(中日韩与东盟)"、"三个内环(10+1、10+3、10+6)"、"四个外围(APEC、ARF、SCO、ASEM)"的东亚合作战略构想。     

The influence of socio-economic characteristics on the political attitudes of American Indians

We examine the political attitudes of American Indians in eastern Oklahoma where they make up almost 20% of the population. We argue that American Indians in the region play the same role that other minorities in the southern states—notably blacks and Hispanics—do in resisting the region's realignment from the Democratic to the Republican Party. American Indians in the region are populists in that they are economically liberal and religiously conservative. The results of our analysis suggest that the socio-economic characteristics of American Indians play a greater role in explaining American Indians’ political attitudes than their ethnic identification.     

从西雅图的信看美洲印第安人的自然观

原始民族的自然观对现代社会在面对环境危机时重新思考人与自然的关系可以提供一些启发。从 1 9世纪一位印第安酋长的信可以看出 ,美洲印第安人的自然观有不少与西方当代环境哲学的一些重要思想 ,特别是生态学关于要破除人与自然间疆界的主张和生态系统中存在着丰富的生命联系的洞见 ,以及生物中心论与生态中心论提倡的尊重生命的思想有很多契合之处     

东亚地区主义与美国东亚霸权

东亚地区合作的思想由来已久,并有着深厚的内在基础。但东亚地区真正起步还是在冷战以后。这个过程与美国东亚霸权紧密相连。某种程度上,东亚地区合作只是美国东亚霸权的附属产品。但美国东亚霸权目标和手段的内在矛盾决定了美国对东亚地区合作的两面性。东亚地区正是充分利用这个两面性,促进了本地区的合作与整合,形成了一股具有内生变量的,不以美国东亚霸权志趣为转移的力量或态势。但随着东亚地区实力的上升和进一步整合,美国这种内在矛盾性将进一步凸现。未来如何化解美国东亚霸权和东亚地区发展这种矛盾成为目前非常紧迫的课题。     

代际关系的影响因素及如何建立正向的代际关系

本文宗旨是如何建立成年子女和老年父母之间正向的代际关系并增强代际间的相互理解。讨论了影响代际关系的因素。家庭趋势的变动对老年人照料提出了挑战。这些发现使未来老年父母一代的前景堪忧 ,例如他们经历了更高的离婚率 ,因此可能会对来自公共和社会保险项目的支持产生更多需求。成年子女和老年父母之间亲密感情和冲突的并存使代际关系变得很复杂。本文最后探讨了如何建立正向的代际关系     

城市居家老人生活质量研究——以上海为例

本文针对城市居家老人的需要和特点,从评估城市居家老人生活质量的六个维度即经济状况与消费水平、居住条件与家庭设施、躯体健康与心理健康、社会支持、闲暇生活质量、生活满意度方面入手,深入开发了上海市老年人口状况与意愿跟踪调查数据资料,使用分等级加权评分法综合评估了城市居家老人生活质量以及分性别和年龄的老人生活质量。     

Voluntary Siting and Equity: The MRS Facility Experience in Native America

This article focuses on aspects of intragenerational and intergenerational equity in the context of a unique policy experiment: the effort of the U.S. government to site a monitored, retrievable storage (MRS) facility for high-level civilian nuclear waste. This process and its outcomes are examined from both normative and subjective perspectives. While the MRS siting process was designed to be equitable, its eventual focus on Native American communities raises profound questions about environmental justice, as well as procedural, outcome, and intergenerational equity in cross-cultural contexts. The diverse reactions among Native American tribes demonstrate that translating theoretical concepts of equity into practice is an extraordinarily complex exercise. The MRS siting process, instead of being a bold policy experiment that promoted equity, emerges substantially flawed after its implementation in the Native American context.     

美日电子商务发展比较

美日在IT领域的发展差距体现在很多方面,电子商务是其中之一。本文比较分析了美日电子商务的规模,总结了美日发展电子商务的不同特征,并指出至少在目前,电子商务在日本具有较强的工具性和一定的封闭性,而美国的电子商务发展更能满足电子商务的本质要求。文中还探讨了造成美日之间这一发展差距的原因,及今后可能推动日本电子商务发展的有利条件。     

Conditional expectation determination based on the J-process using Malliavin calculus applied to pricing American options

The aim of our paper is to elaborate a theoretical methodology based on the Malliavin calculus to calculate the following conditional expectation (P_t(X_t)|(X_s)) for s≤t where the only state variable follows a J-process [Jerbi Y. A new closed-form solution as an extension of the Black—Scholes formula allowing smile curve plotting. Quant Finance. 2013; Online First Article. doi:10.1080/14697688.2012.762458]. The theoretical results are applied to the American option pricing, consisting of an extension of the work of Bally et al. [Pricing and hedging American options by Monte Carlo methods using a Malliavin calculus approach. Monte Carlo Methods Appl. 2005;11-2:97–133], as well as the J-process (with additional parameters λ and θ) is an extension of the Wiener process. The introduction of the aforesaid parameters induces skewness and kurtosis effects, i.e. smile curve allowing to fit with the reality of financial market. In his work Jerbi [Jerbi Y. A new closed-form solution as an extension of the Black–-Scholes formula allowing smile curve plotting. Quant Finance. 2013; Online First Article. doi:10.1080/14697688.2012.762458] showed that the use of the J-process is equivalent to the use of a stochastic volatility model based on the Wiener process as in Heston's. The present work consists on extending this result to the American options. We studied the influence of the parameters λ and θ on the American option price and we find empirical results fitting with the options theory.     

美国总统对台政策与中美邦交

美国四年一度的总统更替导致了美国对台湾政策的不稳定,台湾成了美国牵制中国的"棋子",美国一再利用台湾问题干涉中国内政,妨碍中国的统一进程,严重影响了中美关系。正确认识台湾问题在中美关系中的核心地位,处理好台湾问题,有利于太平洋地区以及世界的和平与稳定。