Dynamic Bayesian analysis of generalized odds ratios assuming multivariate skew-normal distribution for the error terms in the system equation

In this paper, we develop a methodology for the dynamic Bayesian analysis of generalized odds ratios in contingency tables. It is a standard practice to assume a normal distribution for the random effects in the dynamic system equations. Nevertheless, the normality assumption may be unrealistic in some applications and hence the validity of inferences can be dubious. Therefore, we assume a multivariate skew-normal distribution for the error terms in the system equation at each step. Moreover, we introduce a moving average approach to elicit the hyperparameters. Both simulated data and real data are analyzed to illustrate the application of this methodology.     

Environmental Exposures to Metals in Native Communities and Implications for Child Development: Basis for the Navajo Birth Cohort Study

Two disparate statistics often cited for the Western United States raise concern about risks for developmental disabilities in Native American children. First, 13 of the states with the highest percentage of Native American population are located in the Western United States (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 U.S. Census Bureau. (2012). The American Indian and Alaska Native Population: 2010 (U.S. Census Briefs, January, #C2010BR-10). Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-10.pdf [Google Scholar]). Second, more than 161,000 abandoned hard-rock mines are located in 12 Western states (General Accounting Office, 2014 General Accounting Office. (2014, July 14). GAO-11–834T: Abandoned Mines. Information on the number of hardrock mines, cost of cleanup, and value of financial assurances. Statement of Anu K. Mittal, Director, Natural Resources and Environment Team, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, Committee on Natural Resources, House of Representatives. Retrieved from http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-11-834T [Google Scholar]). Moreover, numerous studies have linked low-level metals exposure with birth defects and developmental delays. Concern has emerged among tribal populations that metals exposure from abandoned mines might threaten development of future generations.     

Toward a Culturally Informed Rehabilitation Treatment Model for American Indian/Alaska Native Veterans

American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/AN) have a long tradition of military service, allying with Western forces in North America since the 1700s. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that AI/AN veterans experience higher rates of overall disability and service-related disability than veterans of other races and ethnicities. It is not clear, however, that AI/AN veterans with disabilities are receiving effective, culturally informed rehabilitation services. This article examines the incidence of disability among contemporary AI/AN veterans, considers barriers to effective treatment, and points out model programs tailored to the particular needs of this population, with attention to the historical and cultural context of AI/AN military service.     

华盛顿·欧文的散文风格

华盛顿·欧文的散文幽默、诙谐、不拘泥形式;喜用朴实的英文及美国式动词和名词;并且极具讽刺意味。     

卢沟桥事变后日本转变对蒙政策原因探析

九.一八事变后,关东军将其侵略矛头又指向华北和西部内蒙古。先以支持“蒙古独立”为诱饵,笼络当时提倡蒙古高度自治的德王,终将其拉入自己怀抱。卢沟桥事变爆发,日本占领了西部内蒙古,为了更加有效地统治这一新占领区,由煽动“蒙古独立”开始转向提倡“民族协和”。政策转变的原因首先是为了稳固新占领地区的统治;其次是防止已实行“自治”的伪满洲国“兴安蒙古”出现离心倾向;第三是优先考虑维护与汪精卫伪政权的关系。     

浅论"七S"管理模型

80年代初,日本经济的发展速度超过美国,国际管理理论界对日本企业进行了研究,麦肯锡公司对日本松下公司和美国企业做了调查后,指出了日本企业管理上的优势战略上允许创新;组织结构上不实行复杂的结构;制度上强调有效性;风格上重视顾客和质量;视员工为"社会人";把个人的才能和组织结合起来;建立企业共同的价值观念.即战略,结构,制度,人员,风格,技能和崇高目标七个因素,简称"七S"模型.其中前三个"硬S"因素两国企业差别不大,而差距在于后四个"软S"因素.     

论后选举权初期美国妇女的参政困境——基于社会性别视角

获得选举权揭开了美国妇女参与选举政治的序幕.但由于内化了贤妻良母的传统社会性别身份,美国妇女在后选举权初期未能积极参与投票.即使参与投票,她们亦无法只依据自我的社会性别身份而形成统一“投票集团”.因对社会性别平等有着不同理解,各女权组织间分歧严重,这无形中消减了妇女的参政效应.通过社会性别视角,文章着力剖析后选举权初期美国妇女的参政困境.     

表征理论与美国少数族裔书写

表征的特征就是观念系统的再现、对身份的表现、或建构一种有误的再现。这样一种表现或建构显然与意识形态和权力密切相关,同时也与隐含在表现这些形象的话语形式密切相关。少数族裔的书写在很大的程度上是对现存表征系统的颠覆,以更为贴近自身历史真实的再现覆盖原有表征系统对该族裔的叙述。美国少数族裔文学书写的历史均是与这种表征系统的调停、纠正、对抗的历史。     

碰撞与交流:新中国成立初期美国电影在华的命运变迁

由于电影艺术的特殊属性,无论从社会舆论角度,还是意识形态监控方面,都决定了电影审查的必要性。新中国成立初期,鉴于美国电影的社会影响,为了稳定社会秩序,人民政府对国民政府时期遗留下的大批美国电影进行了审查。对美国电影的审查,构成了这一时期中国电影市场管控的重要内容,也折射出美国电影在华的命运变迁。尤其当时美国电影《社会中坚》在国内的宣传和公映,说明了在特殊的历史时期,意识形态对电影审查和市场行为的决定性影响。它不仅体现了人民政府在规范市场、统一思想方面的重要作用,也反映了中美两国在意识形态和政治文化方面的碰撞与交流。     

跨太平洋伙伴关系协议与美国贸易保护的新路径

从贸易限制的视角,依据国际关系中的现实主义和自由主义理论,提出两大核心假设：构建中的TPP条款为因变量,成文后的TPP条款为自变量,二者皆为美国贸易保护提供了新路径。选取核心议题里的知识产权、竞争政策、劳工和环境规则,水平与交叉议题上的监管一致议题作为主要研究对象,分析作为因变量的TPP条款提供贸易保护的方法,它们分别是：白金标准、体系竞争、主协议条款且有争端解决机制、监管机制规则。尝试用中美两国在WTO发生的贸易摩擦案例分析并预测作为自变量的TPP条款对于中美贸易的影响,预期未来中美两国在服务贸易领域以及新议题领域摩擦加剧,美国在TPP制定的贸易规则对我国贸易方式影响深远。