Dynamic Preference for Flexibility

We consider a decision maker who faces dynamic decision situations that involve intertemporal trade‐offs, as in consumption–savings problems, and who experiences taste shocks that are transient contingent on the state of the world. We axiomatize a recursive representation of choice over state contingent infinite horizon consumption problems, where uncertainty about consumption utilities depends on the observable state and the state follows a subjective Markov process. The parameters of the representation are the subjective process that governs the evolution of beliefs over consumption utilities and the discount factor; they are uniquely identified from behavior. We characterize a natural notion of greater preference for flexibility in terms of a dilation of beliefs. An important special case of our representation is a recursive version of the Anscombe–Aumann model with parameters that include a subjective Markov process over states and state‐dependent utilities, all of which are uniquely identified.     

Differences in Retail Inventory Investment Behavior During Macroeconomic Shocks: Role of Service Level

In this article, we analyze how retailers change their inventory investment behavior in response to macroeconomic shocks. We examine if service level, as measured by the ratio of stockout to inventory holding costs, can explain the differences in observed behavior across retailers. We use data on macroeconomic indicators and quarterly filings of US public retailers from 1985 to 2009 to estimate a dynamic model of short‐ and long‐term impact of macroeconomic shocks on inventory investment. Our results show that retailers with a high service level increase their inventory investment significantly more than those with a low service level during expansion shocks. Conversely, retailers with a low service level curtail their inventory investment significantly more than those with a high service level during periods of economic contractions. Thus, we show that the aggregate change in inventory investment documented in prior macroeconomics research is driven by different sets of retailers, as predicted by newsvendor logic. We draw implications of our findings to retailers as well as their suppliers.     

合同能源管理模式下节能项目经营期计算模型

当前,建筑节能服务公司在实施基于合同能源管理的建筑节能项目过程中存在一个主要障碍,就是建筑节能服务公司和客户在如何确定项目的节能效益分享期限上很难达成共识。合同能源管理模式下的建筑节能项目运行期的确定既要考虑节能服务公司的利益,还要考虑项目移交给客户后的节能收益。从风险和收益角度出发,针对节能项目经营期（即合同期）和项目移交给客户后的经营期两个阶段,分别采用了不同的贴现率,对节能服务公司的净现值计算采用了基于CAPM模型确定的风险校正贴现率,而对客户的净现值分析则采用考虑银行贷款利率和通货膨胀率的贴现率。在此基础上,构建了建筑节能服务公司的项目经营期决策模型,为科学合理地确定节能项目的经营期提供了理论基础。     

货币流动性、通货膨胀与我国货币政策走向探析

金融危机以来,新一轮通货膨胀给我国现实经济生活带来的影响已经显现。分析通货膨胀的决定因素并回顾我国自金融危机以来的货币政策可知,当前的货币政策应该关注更广泛意义上的价格变动,关注一般竞争性产品价格下降与资源、资产价格上涨之间的内在矛盾,并应谨慎使用利率工具。     

Transmissions of real economic shocks across the Pacific Rim economies

We use Asian International Input–Output Tables 1995 in measuring trade dependencies of 10 Pacific Rim economies within a regional general equilibrium model. We develop two sets of metrics in measuring the trade dependencies of the economies. First, we use final demand elasticity of exports in measuring the sensitivities of the economies in the model to autonomous changes in the final demand in any other economy in the region. Second, we use a final-demand-weighted index of export elasticities that are induced by variations in the final demand vector of any economy in the model as indicators of the strength of the shocks transmitted across countries.The estimated coefficients have important policy implications. First, these coefficients identify the most vulnerable sectors of the economies in terms of the export/import dependency. Second, these coefficients may be readily used in bilateral and regional trade negotiations. Using these coefficients, policy makers can provide mutual trade concessions in dampening the effects of real and financial shocks transmitted from the trading partners.     

知识产权信贷担保资产证券化若干法律问题探讨

资产证券化是当今国际金融市场最重要的金融创新之一,资产证券化是以可预期的稳定现金流为支撑,通过对资产的风险和收益进行法律上的分离和信用增级,转换为在资本市场上发行以资产支持的证券,从而达到发起人融得资金、投资人获得投资回报的目的。知识产权质押担保信贷资产证券化应该说为科技企业提供一个新型的融资技术,同时也能为银行向科技企业贷款提供了一种减少贷款风险的新途径。     

资产管理公司运作模式分析

资产管理公司作为经营特殊业务的公司,运用市场化原则,采取多种手段运作不良资产,以实现最大限度保全资产,防止其流失的目的,并采取相应的措施解决运作中出现的问题,为其良性运作营造一个良好外部环境和内部氛围。     

政府终结--基本经验模式与演绎模式

分析了政府终结的方法———基本经验模式和演绎模式方法。基本经验模式发展成主体,将日益复杂微妙的事件应用于数据统计,并受到学界很大程度的认可。演绎方法发展为不合作博弈,以主要政治角色的反应为标准,譬如,如果政府快要垮台,有关可能的选举结果就会被准确地预测。把这两种传统模式融合为一种综合的研究模式目前还没有转化为现实。     

Effects of an Individual Development Account Program on Retirement Saving: Follow-up Evidence From a Randomized Experiment

We examine the 10-year follow-up effects on retirement saving of an individual development account (IDA) program using data from a randomized experiment that ran from 1998 to 2003 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The IDA program included financial education, encouragement to save, and matching funds for several qualified uses of the saving, including contributions to retirement accounts. The results indicate that as of 2009, 6 years after the program ended, the IDA program had no impact on the propensity to hold a retirement account, the account balance, or the sufficiency of retirement balances to meet retirement expenses.     

Regulatory treatment of the double default effect under the New Basel Accord: how conservative is it?

Within the internal ratings-based approach of the New Basel Accord, banks have the possibility to consider the so-called double default effect of guaranteed exposures. However, the correlation assumptions inherent in the regulatory recognition of the double default effect appear to be quite conservative. To evaluate the degree of conservatism, on one hand, the regulatory correlation assumptions are compared with the results of a broad range of empirical studies. On the other hand, additional simulation experiments are carried out. While the comparison with the empirical results indeed suggests that the correlation parameters assumed by the regulatory authorities are much too large, the simulation experiments show that the assumed values are not unrealistic for capturing the intended effects.