Deciding with Thresholds: Importance Measures and Value of Information

Risk‐informed decision making is often accompanied by the specification of an acceptable level of risk. Such target level is compared against the value of a risk metric, usually computed through a probabilistic safety assessment model, to decide about the acceptability of a given design, the launch of a space mission, etc. Importance measures complement the decision process with information about the risk/safety significance of events. However, importance measures do not tell us whether the occurrence of an event can change the overarching decision. By linking value of information and importance measures for probabilistic risk assessment models, this work obtains a value‐of‐information‐based importance measure that brings together the risk metric, risk importance measures, and the risk threshold in one expression. The new importance measure does not impose additional computational burden because it can be calculated from our knowledge of the risk achievement and risk reduction worth, and complements the insights delivered by these importance measures. Several properties are discussed, including the joint decision worth of basic event groups. The application to the large loss of coolant accident sequence of the Advanced Test Reactor helps us in illustrating the risk analysis insights.     

A General Formula for Valuing Defaultable Securities

Previous research has shown that under a suitable no‐jump condition, the price of a defaultable security is equal to its risk‐neutral expected discounted cash flows if a modified discount rate is introduced to account for the possibility of default. Below, we generalize this result by demonstrating that one can always value defaultable claims using expected risk‐adjusted discounting provided that the expectation is taken under a slightly modified probability measure. This new probability measure puts zero probability on paths where default occurs prior to the maturity, and is thus only absolutely continuous with respect to the risk‐neutral probability measure. After establishing the general result and discussing its relation with the existing literature, we investigate several examples for which the no‐jump condition fails. Each example illustrates the power of our general formula by providing simple analytic solutions for the prices of defaultable securities.     

Slack free MEA and RDM with comprehensive efficiency measures

This paper extends two directional distance function models, the Multi-directional Efficiency Analysis (MEA) Model and the Range Directional Model (RDM), in order to account for any type of technical inefficiency, i.e. both directional and non-directional inefficiencies. We first focus on the variable returns to scale (VRS) case, because both VRS-MEA and RDM are translation invariant models, which mean that both models are able to deal with negative data. Our main result is the definition of a new comprehensive efficiency measure which is units invariant and translation invariant and covers both models. Secondly, we introduce the RDM model under constant returns to scale (CRS) together with a new comprehensive efficiency measure.     

京津冀节能减排政策措施的差异与协同研究

在对京津冀1981年以来节能减排政策措施进行量化处理的基础上,建立针对节能减排政策措施有效性的计量模型,分析了京津冀节能减排政策措施的演变状况,并探究京津冀节能减排政策措施对其节能减排效果影响的差异性.研究结果表明:京津冀节能减排政策颁布经历了早期各年份相对零散、缺乏连续性到新世纪以来政策颁布数量显著增多、政策总体力度逐渐增大的过程,但三地政策总效力的增加主要是由于节能减排政策颁布数量增多引起的;京津冀三地在政策的制定过程中更多的是趋于实现短期目标,政策整体缺乏系统性和权威性;人事措施、行政措施、引导措施、财税措施、金融措施等不同节能减排政策措施对京津冀节能和减排的有效性具有明显的差异;三地对不同政策措施的使用方式、使用程度方面存在明显的差异,这对京津冀协同推进节能减排的治理工作提出挑战.论文还从京津冀完善单一节能减排政策措施的使用、加强市场手段的应用及京津冀区域协同治理等方面提出了相应政策建议.     

论中医药商业秘密的法律保护

中医药知识产权制度的建立为中医药事业的发展提供了保障,中医药商业秘密则是对中医药信息和技术实行保护的有效措施.采取法律手段保护中医药商业秘密,首先要认定作为商业秘密权保护客体的中医药范围,其次要对中医药的商业秘密保护措施与其他保护措施进行区分,最后梳理我国当前对中医药商业秘密进行保护中存在的问题,构建中医药商业秘密保护的机制.     

Influence of Safety Measures on the Risks of Transporting Dangerous Goods Through Road Tunnels

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of "native safety measures." In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important "nonnative safety measures" of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel.     

我国商会预防和应对对华反倾销诉讼的策略及措施

近年来,在国外我国产品被控反倾销的次数不断增多,而相比之下,胜诉案件的比例却没有同等增长,这对我国的出口贸易秩序和出口贸易发展造成极为不利的影响.商会应利用其自身优势,确定应对对华反倾销诉讼的策略,并采取相应的具体措施,积极参与对华反倾销诉讼活动的各个环节,进而改变预防和应对对华反倾销的各种被动局面.     

英汉翻译中的“翻译腔”研究

"翻译腔"是由于译者受原语表达方式的影响和束缚而产生的不符合译语语言习惯的译文.这种译文生硬、晦涩、难懂,甚至使读者不知所云,是我们在翻译实践中应该避免的.从翻译腔的概念及其形成原因两个方面进行分析,并提出了一些克服其症的见解.     

当前我国社会保障存在的问题及其改革措施

自《中华人民共和国劳动保险条例》颁布始 ,中国社会保障制度已走过 50年发展历程 ,社会保障制度从雏形到逐步成熟和规范。当前我国社会保障实践在成绩中隐含着许多矛盾和问题 ,因此 ,应尽快建立起独立于企业事业单位之外、资金来源多元化、保障制度规范化、管理服务社会化的社会保障体系已是迫在眉睫