跨境贸易人民币结算收付变化的影响因素分析

人民币汇率预期变化、套利活动及企业的议价权高低是影响跨境贸易人民币结算收付变化的主要因素。2011年以来,跨境贸易人民币结算收付渐趋平衡,但这种趋势能否持续,受制于币值的稳定性程度、中国外贸企业的议价权高低以及进、出口人民币结算发展的平衡性。短期内,受人民币贬值预期的影响,收付比将会继续保持缩小趋势,甚至再次出现收入略大于支出的现象;但从中长期来看,人民币汇率稳中有升的可能性较大,同时,进口人民币结算的发展潜力相对强于出口,故而维持支出略大于收入的可能性较大。     

Using GIS to enhance programs serving emancipated youth leaving foster care

This article describes a GIS prototype designed to assist with the identification and evaluation of housing that is affordable, safe, and effective in supporting the educational goals and parental status of youth transitioning from foster care following emancipation. Spatial analysis was used to identify rental properties based on three inclusion criteria (affordability, proximity to public transportation, and proximity to grocery stores), three exclusion criteria (areas of high crime, prostitution, and sexual predator residence), and three suitability criteria (proximity to health care, mental health care, and youth serving organizations). The results were applied to four different scenarios to test the utility of the model. Of the 145 affordable rental properties, 27 met the criteria for safe and effective housing. Of these, 19 were located near bus routes with direct service to post-secondary education or vocational training programs. Only 6 were considered appropriate to meet the needs of youth who had children of their own. These outcomes highlight the complexities faced by youth when they attempt to find affordable and suitable housing following emancipation. The LEASE prototype demonstrates that spatial analysis can be a useful tool to assist with planning services for youth making the transition to independent living.     

新形势下多元化解社会矛盾的新型机制研究

当前,我国正处于社会矛盾的凸显期。防范和化解社会矛盾,已成为维护社会稳定、和谐社会的首要任务。评判一个社会稳定与否,不是看有没有社会矛盾或利益冲突,而是看这个社会是否具备一个完善的社会机制将矛盾和冲突控制在“有序”范围内。妥善处理社会矛盾,要完善信访制度,健全党和政府主导的维护群众权益机制,统筹协调各方面利益关系,有效预防和化解各类社会矛盾。从改革和完善决策机制层面加强对社会矛盾化解机制的研究,健全社会矛盾化解的政府公共机制,创新社会利益的整合机制和利益诉求表达机制,完善政府对社会矛盾化解的调处机制与权益保障机制,推动和完善社会组织的发展,充分发挥社会力量参与调节作用,真正建立社会矛盾化解的多元新型机制。既是构建社会主义和谐社会需要解决的重大理论问题,也是从根本上预防与化解日益复杂的社会矛盾的重大实践。     

Learning Patterns in Social Skills Training Programs: An Exploratory Study

While Social Skills Training programs have been shown to improve the social skills of children with Disruptive Behaviour Disorders, the pattern of change in the participants’ learning during the training period remains unknown. Identifying this pattern could assist in determining whether more or less training hours are required to maximize the benefits of such programs within available resources. The current study aimed to replicate the social skills improvements found in previous research, and to explore the pattern of improvements in social knowledge and social performance that occurs during a Social Skills Training program. Two groups of eight males with behavioural problems attended 14 one-hour sessions of Social Skills Training. Multisources, multisettings and multimethods were used to measure social knowledge and social performance across five test phases. Multivariate analyses did not support previous findings showing overall improvements in social knowledge and social performance. Patterns of learning were not found to be consistent across different measures.     

Income and child development

We examine how income is associated with the home environments and the cognitive and behavioral development of pre-school children using data from a birth cohort study of children born at the end of the 20th century. Lower-income 3-year-old children are more likely than wealthier children to live in homes with inadequate physical environments and to have mothers who are more likely to be stressed, depressed, harsh and unresponsive. Additionally, low income children have lower PPVT scores, more mother-reported aggressive, withdrawn, and anxious behavior problems, and also more interviewer-reported problems with behavior, than more affluent children. A key policy question is whether increases in the incomes of poor families would result in improvements in children's outcomes, at least in part through improvements in the home environment. This question is difficult to answer using observational data. However, we argue that, even under the most generous interpretation of the associations we estimate, large income transfer programs would have relatively small effects on children's cognitive and behavioral outcomes.     

Belonging and the uses of difference: young people in Australian urban multiculture

This paper examines how young people of migrant background in Australia make meaning of cultural, ethnic and racial difference to work out belonging in times of super-diversity. It asks what functions difference still has for a generation growing up within conditions of proliferating diversity that demand and accommodate competing constructions of cultural identities. It suggests that young people's narratives about difference depend on the space of belonging, and explores how young people use difference differently depending on whether they are articulating membership in the local community, the nation or youth culture.     

WTO争端解决机制中的“法庭之友”问题

WTO诸协定,特别是《关于争端解决规则与程序的谅解》（简称DSU）中没有关于法庭之友的规定。但是法庭之友主动向专家组、上诉机构提交意见,介入争端解决机制已经是不争的事实。在没有法律依据的前提下,争端解决机构对法庭之友意见采取一案一议、非连贯性的做法,引发了成员国之间激烈的争论。为了提高争端解决机构的裁定能力,建立一个更加具有预测性和透明度的体制,争端解决机构有必要对此问题予以解释和澄清,允许法庭之友在专家组阶段提交意见。     

候鸟型生活的终结:农民工择巢命题解读

庞大的"候鸟型农民工"群体为城市发展做出贡献,但频繁奔波于城乡的候鸟型生活的艰辛,也带来一些负效应。在城乡统筹深化进程中,农民工是迎接"落地生根"式的市民化还是"还归乡村"以终结候鸟型生活?该命题的解读密码在于:国情背景下"目标城市"的特有命题、与城镇化阶段相容的渐进式"开城移民"之路与渐进式户籍改革过程;此外,也需理解土地管理制度改革、城市病与新农村发展愿景等相关范畴。     

Neighborhood poverty and children’s exposure to danger: Examining gender differences in impacts of the Moving to Opportunity experiment

The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) program offered public housing residents in distressed communities a chance to move to low-poverty neighborhoods. The present study examined whether the resulting decline in neighborhood poverty led to lower levels of exposure to danger among children and youth ages 8-19 years old (n = 4606), and specifically, if there was a gender difference that matched the pattern of more beneficial program effects for girls and more adverse affects for boys. The study goes beyond previous research by using fixed effects to control for family factors that may influence moving behavior and confound estimates of gender differences in program impacts. Results showed that children experienced a decline in exposure to danger, with one key gender difference. Models based on brother-sister comparisons indicated that MTO had a more beneficial impact on exposure to drug activity for females than males. The findings suggest that neighborhood poverty is tied to children’s exposure to danger. Moreover, exposure to drug activity may help explain the gender differences in impacts on children’s mental health and risky behavior.     

Using developmental evaluation as a system of organizational learning: An example from San Francisco

In the last 20 years, developmental evaluation has emerged as a promising approach to support organizational learning in emergent social programs. Through a continuous system of inquiry, reflection, and application of knowledge, developmental evaluation serves as a system of tools, methods, and guiding principles intended to support constructive organizational learning. However, missing from the developmental evaluation literature is a nuanced framework to guide evaluators in how to elevate the organizational practices and concepts most relevant for emergent programs. In this article, we describe and reflect on work we did to develop, pilot, and refine an integrated pilot framework. Drawing on established developmental evaluation inquiry frameworks and incorporating lessons learned from applying the pilot framework, we put forward the Evaluation-led Learning framework to help fill that gap and encourage others to implement and refine it. We posit that without explicitly incorporating the assessments at the foundation of the Evaluation-led Learning framework, developmental evaluation’s ability to affect organizational learning in productive ways will likely be haphazard and limited.