Context and interpretation in laboratory experiments: The case of reciprocity

The existing literature acknowledges that a mismatch between the experimenter’s and the subjects’ models of an experimental task can adversely affect the interpretation of data from laboratory experiments. We primarily focus on experiments designed to test a hypothesis by comparing behavior across two or more games and highlight the drawbacks of using a between-subjects design or a within subjects design. An alternative design for laboratory experiments is proposed which may alleviate this concern especially in studies of social preferences. We argue that the proposed design does not introduce any conceptual problems in addition to those that are already present in the between and within subjects designs and may alleviate some of the problems inherent to these designs in certain cases. We also use the proposed design to answer some questions that have attracted continued attention in the literature on social preferences in general and reciprocity in particular.     

基于人工神经网络的2A70铝合金形变显微组织预测

在Gleeble-1500热模拟试验机上对2A70铝合金试样在变形程度为60％、变形温度为360℃～480℃、变形速率为0.01～1S^-1的条件下进行等温恒应变速率压缩试验及固溶处理。分析热变形参数对合金固溶后显微组织的影响，结果表明，2A70铝合金的晶粒尺寸随温度的升高而增大，随变形程度和速率的增大而减小。采用BP神经网络的方法预测2A70铝合金固溶处理后的平均晶粒尺寸，对于样本数据，模型的相对误差不超过±5％；对于非样本数据，模型的相对误差不超过±8％。     

How the Risk of Displacement for Older Workers Has Changed

Using Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition and relying on the consistent design of the Displaced Worker Survey since 1996, this study analyses various factors contributing to the rising dislocation of older workers, such as changes in tenure, industry mix, educational attainment, and labor force participation. Although in the past older workers were less prone to displacement compared with prime‐age workers, this paper finds that older workers are now more likely to be displaced, conditional on education, manufacturing industry, and tenure. Declining tenure, a higher incidence of displacement in manufacturing, and a higher labor force participation among older workers largely explain the convergence of displacement rates among older and prime‐age workers.     

CONVERGENCE: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF TEACHING AND LEARNING IN REPEATED GAMES

Nash equilibrium can be interpreted as a steady state where players hold correct beliefs about the other players’ behavior and act rationally. We experimentally examine the process that leads to this steady state. Our results indicate that some players emerge as teachers—those subjects who, by their actions, try to influence the beliefs of their opponent and lead the way to a more favorable outcome—and that the presence of teachers appears to facilitate convergence to Nash equilibrium. In addition to our experiments, we examine games, with different properties, from other experiments and show that teaching plays an important role in these games. We also report results from treatments in which teaching is made more difficult. In these treatments, convergence rates go down and any convergence that does occur is delayed.     

On asymptotics of multivariate integrals with applications to records

Let { X _n ,n≥1} be a sequence of iid. Gaussian random vectors in R ^d , d≥2, with nonsingular distribution function F. In this paper the asymptotics for the sequence of integrals I _F,n (G _n )?n∫ _{R ^d} G _n ^n?1( X ) dF( X ) is considered with G _n some distribution function on R ^d . In the case G _n =F the integral I _F,n (F)/n is the probability that a record occurs in X ₁,…, X _n at index n. [1] Gnedin, A.V. 1998. Records from a Multivariate Normal Sample. Statist. Probab. Lett., 39: 11–15. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] obtained lower and upper asymptotic bounds for this case, whereas [2] Ledford, W.A. and Twan, A.J. 1998. On the Tail Concomitant Behaviour for Extremes. Adv. Appl. Probab., 30: 197–215. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] showed the rate of convergence if d=2. In this paper we derive the exact rate of convergence of I _F,n (G _n ) for d≥2 under some restrictions on the distribution function G _n . Some related results for multivariate Gaussian tails are discussed also.     

Factor stochastic volatility with time varying loadings and Markov switching regimes

We generalize the factor stochastic volatility (FSV) model of Pitt and Shephard [1999. Time varying covariances: a factor stochastic volatility approach (with discussion). In: Bernardo, J.M., Berger, J.O., Dawid, A.P., Smith, A.F.M. (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics, vol. 6, Oxford University Press, London, pp. 547–570.] and Aguilar and West [2000. Bayesian dynamic factor models and variance matrix discounting for portfolio allocation. J. Business Econom. Statist. 18, 338–357.] in two important directions. First, we make the FSV model more flexible and able to capture more general time-varying variance–covariance structures by letting the matrix of factor loadings to be time dependent. Secondly, we entertain FSV models with jumps in the common factors volatilities through So, Lam and Li's [1998. A stochastic volatility model with Markov switching. J. Business Econom. Statist. 16, 244–253.] Markov switching stochastic volatility model. Novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are derived for both classes of models. We apply our methodology to two illustrative situations: daily exchange rate returns [Aguilar, O., West, M., 2000. Bayesian dynamic factor models and variance matrix discounting for portfolio allocation. J. Business Econom. Statist. 18, 338–357.] and Latin American stock returns [Lopes, H.F., Migon, H.S., 2002. Comovements and contagion in emergent markets: stock indexes volatilities. In: Gatsonis, C., Kass, R.E., Carriquiry, A.L., Gelman, A., Verdinelli, I. Pauler, D., Higdon, D. (Eds.), Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, vol. 6, pp. 287–302].     

Asymptotic properties of numbers of near minimum observations under progressive Type-II censoring

In this paper, some results of Pakes and Steutel [1997. On the number of records near the maximum, Austral. J. Statist. 39, 179–193] on the properties of the numbers of near order statistic observations are extended to the case of progressively Type-II censored data. In this way, we introduce the notion of the numbers of near minimum observations under progressive censoring. We derive distributional and asymptotic results for them and discuss the notion of the “increasing” sample in the case of progressive censoring. Some applications for the spacings, associated with the order statistics from progressively Type-II censored samples, are also provided.     

“新新人类”文学的精神走向——“七十年代书写”的文化分析

本文研究“新新人类”即“七十年代书写”的文学精神走向。认为“七十年代书写”中包含着多重含义 :其一 ,它是指一批出生在 70年代的作家以带有新的审美倾向的新文本形式冲击了持续十余年的先锋派叙事话语 ;其二 ,是指非文学写作中出现的文本样式对现有文化秩序构成挑战和不折不扣的轻蔑 ;其三 ,无纸写作的渠道因其前所未有的通畅而容纳了不计其数的青年在业余时间里的思考和随心所欲式的“发表” ,对文化格局的分配与重组起着潜在的影响作用。检视这些文字 ,可以看出“七十年代书写”在“历史叙事”、“自我塑形”方面具有独特的文化症候和精神空白 ,研究并探索其未定性和开放性所具有的“以终为始”的继续书写的问题视域 ,具有重要的意义。     

七十年代前汉语新词语的英译

中国新词语的英译，主要通过音译、意译、半音半意、音译意译兼有这四种方法。本文以较多的实例论述了这四种方法的优点和不足之处，并提出了作者的意见。此外，对英美等国出现的表达中国事物或与中国事物有关的词语，文中提出了应注意之处。     

经世致用：西南民族大学民族学学科70年建设发展启示——访著名学者西南民族大学万果教授

西南民族大学民族学学科建立于1951年4月，是西南民族大学建立最早、最为重要、成果最丰硕的王牌学科之一。文章通过对西南民族大学民族学学科负责人、著名学者万果教授的访谈，了解西南民族大学民族学学科70年建设历程、科学研究、文化传承、教育教学、学位点建设、科研成果等内容，文章最后总结民族学学科70年发展建设的启示，揭示了该学科经世致用的学科属性，并对学科未来发展做了规划和展望。