The use of accounting anomalies indicators to predict business failure

Most of the studies that try to predict business failure assume that accounts give a true and fair view of the financial position of a company, without considering that managers can discretionarily apply accounting rules or even perform accounting fraud. This paper takes a set of financial ratios especially designed to detect accounting anomalies as bankruptcy predictors. These ratios are not very common in bankruptcy prediction studies, but they come from creative accounting studies. The ratios try to identify abnormal depreciation figures, exaggerated receivables or deteriorating financial conditions preceding aggressive accounting practices. The empirical study has been performed from a sample of 51,337 public and private European companies, during the period 2012–2016. The analysis techniques applied were logistic regression and decision trees, allowing to obtain rules to predict the status of failed or non-failed. It is found that several indicators proposed in the literature as earnings management indicators present statistically significant differences between failed and non-failed firms, but they do not have enough predictive power to incorporate them into prediction models. However, an index developed to measure accounting anomalies exhibits high discriminatory power, similar to that of the classical financial ratios. The construction of the index and its application to private firm sample provide the main contribution of the paper, as the results suggest slightly better forecast accuracy only for the private firm sample. The inclusion of indicators to detect accounting anomalies should be considered when developing new models to predict bankruptcy, especially in private companies.     

Omega model for a jump–diffusion process with a two-step premium rate

In this paper, a jump–diffusion Omega model with a two-step premium rate is studied. In this model, the surplus process is a perturbation of a compound Poisson process by a Brown motion. Firstly, using the strong Markov property, the integro-differential equations for the Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty function and the bankruptcy probability are derived. Secondly, for a constant bankruptcy rate function, the renewal equations satisfied by the Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty function are obtained, and by iteration, the closed-form solutions of the function are also given. Further, the explicit solutions of the Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty function are obtained when the individual claim size is subject to exponential distribution. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate some properties of the model.     

企业混合一体化战略的辩证分析--以美国安然公司破产案为例

2001年的美国安然公司破产案创下了美国历史上最大的企业破产记录,给美国经济造成了巨大损失.究其原因,主要是由安然公司实行混合一体化战略失误造成的.诚然,企业实行混合一体化战略可以取得规模经济、优化资源配置、绕开关税壁垒等竞争优势,但同时,若利用不当它也会对企业的发展产生不利影响.笔者认为,我国企业必须吸取安然公司的经验教训,辩证地分析混合一体化战略对自身的适用性,并结合企业经营条件和发展现状谨慎地选择和实行此战略.     

论破产重整中债权人利益保护的问题与对策

重整制度是濒临倒闭的企业的生存希望,在金融危机的背景下,重整制度的运用更为人们所重视。新《破产法》实施两年来,从重整制度的适用范围、重整程序的启动、重整计划的制定批准与执行等角度审视,重整制度存在着债权入利益保护方面的问题,需要我们进行反思并提出相应的对策予以完善。     

Institutional Complementarities within Corporate Governance Systems: A Comparative Study of Bankruptcy Rules

Recent research work has put forward theconcept of national system of corporate governance to describe the complex architecture of legal rules, economic mechanisms and mentalities which constrain managerial discretion in a different way according to the country considered. The role played by the legal system in this set of mechanisms is particularly important and, as part of the legal system, the bankruptcy law performs a specific function: designed as a governance device for financially distressed firms, it also acts as a monitoring mechanism for healthy ones. The aim of this paper is to investigate the mechanisms of corporate governance in the context of bankruptcy in a comparative perspective. Relying on a broad definition of corporate governance (i.e., one which takes into account the influence of all stakeholders on managerial discretion), we first examine the insolvency codes of five countries (France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States). The stance of the law (creditor-oriented vs. debtor-oriented) is discussed in relation to the legal tradition of each country. We then study the way bankruptcy law in each country articulates with the other governance mechanisms. For that purpose, a typology of those mechanisms is used, based on the type of device each kind of stakeholder is able to activate. Results of both theoretical and empirical studies on bankruptcy are used to understand which of the different devices are used in each country. The comparative approach underlines the impact of institutional differences on organizations through the incentives sent to their stakeholders.     

A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default

We study, theoretically and quantitatively, the general equilibrium of an economy in which households smooth consumption by means of both a riskless asset and unsecured loans with the option to default. The default option resembles a bankruptcy filing under Chapter 7 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Competitive financial intermediaries offer a menu of loan sizes and interest rates wherein each loan makes zero profits. We prove the existence of a steady‐state equilibrium and characterize the circumstances under which a household defaults on its loans. We show that our model accounts for the main statistics regarding bankruptcy and unsecured credit while matching key macroeconomic aggregates, and the earnings and wealth distributions. We use this model to address the implications of a recent policy change that introduces a form of “means testing” for households contemplating a Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing. We find that this policy change yields large welfare gains.     

我国破产申请制度改革刍议

我国现行破产法实行债权人或债务人申请宣告破产的制度。这一制度虽具有一定的科学性、合理性 ,但从目前企业破产法实施的实际情况来看 ,这种破产制度有很大的局限性 ,造成该破不破、破产欺诈、债权人利益受损、国资流失等诸多负面后果。我国的破产法应对破产申请制度进行重大改革 ,逐步建立起债务人破产申请义务制度和强制破产制度 ,以适应市场经济的需要     

浅议权益破产法律责任

破产法律责任是指因造成企业破产或违反破产法的规定所应承担的法律责任。破产法律责任具有惩罚破产违法和破产犯罪行为,救济破产法律关系主体受到的损失,恢复受侵犯的权利,教育破产违法者和其他社会成员,预防破产违法犯罪的功能。破产法律责任包括债务人因破产而产生的法律责任和破产欺诈行为产生的法律责任两种类型。作为债务人的企业从事了隐匿资产、逃避债务等欺诈行为,其法定代表人或直接责任人应当向债权人承担民事赔偿责任。债权人也有权在法定期间内,通过破产管理人请求法院宣告其侵害债权人利益的民事行为无效。债务人企业的法定代表人或直接责任人对导致破产有故意、重大过失甚至构成犯罪的,应当承担相应的民事、行政、甚至刑事责任。     

美国破产法2005年修正案之评介——以消费者破产为视角

美国《2005年破产滥用预防及消费者保护法案》在一定程度上实现了近10年来美国银行等金融机构对破产法进行改革的愿望.针对日益严重的消费者滥用破产现象,2005年修正案提出了"收入测试"标准以限定消费者对破产清算程序的随意适用,自动冻结、自由财产和破产免责等制度也都本着强化债权人利益保护的理念作了相应的修订.新破产法最大限度地转变了对债务人的立场,强化了量化抑制破产滥用行为的功能,并建立了对美国经济的双向作用机制.     

德国个人破产制度及其思考

《德国破产法》针对个人破产程序的特点,对该程序作出了一些特别的规定,使得这一程序更加简化灵活,并降低了这一程序的运作成本。文章在对德国个人破产程序的适用前提、基本结构,自然人剩余债务的免除、简要介绍的基础上,对我国建立健全个人破产制度提出了思考和建议。