决策黑箱:现代投资决策理论新探

现代金融学关于经济主体投资决策的依据问题存在两种截然不同的观点,传统金融学基于理性预期认为投资主体决策的依据是信息;而行为金融学则从非理性出发认为主体决策不仅依据信息同时还由心理和情感因素决定。由于金融市场中投资主体理性选择与非理性选择的同时存在,在承认理性选择行为的同时,暗含着对非理性选择行为的默认,认为投资决策是一个存在"决策黑箱"的心理过程,投资主体依据理性还是非理性主要由主体情绪和信息获得与处理的复杂程度决定,对于相同的信息投资者根据当时的市场环境得出不同的判断,导致证券价格也会有不同的表现,决定集群行为的大数定律最终会发挥作用。     

从《警察与赞美诗》看“欧·亨利风格”

本文从近年来国内对欧·亨利代表作《警察与赞美诗》研究中存在的问题入手，剖析欧·亨利小说的主题和创作特点。欧·亨利的作品之所以精彩，不是因为他对于创作手法和写作技巧的熟练驾驭，而在于他洞悉社会弱势群体的喜怒哀乐，真实而深刻地刻画出美国社会“小人物”的生活与命运。真实性才是欧·亨利小说的灵魂。     

对马克思主义哲学本体论语境的再澄清

马克思主义哲学的本体论是“二元本体论”,即既是本原意义上的物质本体论,又是社会历史领域本质意义上的实践本体论,二者不可或缺。     

林希"津味小说"初探

上个世纪 90年代以来 ,地域特色文学有了新的变化。林希的“津味小说”异军突起 ,受到文坛的关注。对其代表作做了文体与内涵的分析 ;结合作家经历 ,指出他的写作特点是以一方水土写人文 ,以杂色闲人揭示老城人生 ,以社会现象反观当代世相。他不仅推进了天津文学的创作 ,而且提高了中国当代市井小说的文化品位     

债的客体问题新探

债的客体应该是在债之中每一对权利义务所指向的对象。所有类型的债的客体构成，都是二元结构的，一部分是债务人所做出的履行义务的行为即给付行为；另一部分是该给付行为所指向的特定的物或其他财产以及特定的事实等，即给付行为标的。劳务之债的客体也都应该是给付行为＋给付行为标的这种二元结构的，劳务之债客体中给付行为标的有多种多样的表现形式。     

Development of the PEARLS model (Particulate Exposure from Ambient to Regional Lung by Subgroup) and use of Monte Carlo simulation to predict internal exposure to 2.5 in Toronto.

Air pollution is a current and growing concern for Canadians, and there is evidence that ambient levels that meet current exposure standards may be associated with mortality and morbidity in Toronto, Canada. Evaluating exposure is an important step in understanding the relationship between particulate matter (PM) exposure and health outcomes. This report describes the PEARLS model (Particulate Exposure from Ambient to Regional Lung by Subgroup), which predicts exposure distributions for 11 age-gender population subgroups in Toronto to PM2.5 (PM with a median aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microm or less) using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model uses physiological and activity pattern characteristics of each subgroup to determine region-specific lung exposure to PM2.5, which is defined as the mass of PM2.5 deposited per unit time to each of five lung regions (two extrathoracic, bronchial, bronchiolar, and alveolar). The modeling results predict that children, toddlers, and infants have the broadest distributions of exposure, and the greatest chance of experiencing extreme exposures in the alveolar region of the lung. Importance analysis indicates that the most influential model variables are air exchange rate into indoor environments, time spent outdoors, and time spent at high activity levels. Additionally, a "critical point" was defined and introduced to the PEARLS to investigate the effects of possible threshold-pathogenic phenomena on subgroup exposure patterns. The analysis indicates that the subgroups initially predicted to be most highly exposed were likely to have the highest proportion of their population exposed above the critical point. Substantial exposures above the critical point were predicted in all subgroups for ambient concentrations of PM2.5 commonly observed in Toronto after continuous exposure of 24 hours or more.     

The End of the One-Drop Rule? Labeling of Multiracial Children in Black Intermarriages

The identity choices of multiracial individuals with Black heritage have traditionally been limited in America by the one-drop rule, which automatically designated them as Black. This paper evaluates the rules contemporary influence and argues that, with increasing interracial marriage, options in racial identification are now available to this group. Using the 5% 1990 and 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples, I consider how children from Black intermarriages are racially identified by their families and, using 2000 data, evaluate theoretical hypotheses to explain identification processes. The results show that most families with Black intermarriages reject the one-drop rule, but that Black–White families create unique interracial options, the implications of which are considered.     

我国大学科技园的发展势态及问题探讨

兴办大学科技园 ,把高校人才和技术优势转化为产业和经济优势 ,是推动科技成果转化和高新技术产业化、提高我国技术创新能力和国际竞争力的客观要求。我国大学科技园从借鉴、试点到全面启动 ,有许多需要认真研究和探索的问题 ,主要包括科技园的功能定位问题、科技园的建设模式问题、高等院校的资源如何更好地对科技园开放的问题、科技园的管理体制及企业运行机制问题以及国家和地方在政策和资金上对科技园的支持问题。     

Estimates of the Health Risk Reductions Associated with Attainment of Alternative Particulate Matter Standards in Two U.S. Cities

As part of its periodic re-evaluation of particulate matter (PM) standards, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimated the health risk reductions associated with attainment of alternative PM standards in two locations in the United States with relatively complete air quality data: Philadelphia and Los Angeles. PM standards at the time of the analysis were defined for particles of aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 microm, denoted as PM-10. The risk analyses estimated the risk reductions that would be associated with changing from attainment of the PM-10 standards then in place to attainment of alternative standards using an indicator measuring fine particles, defined as those particles of aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microm and denoted as PM-2.5. Annual average PM-2.5 standards of 12.5, 15, and 20 microg/m3 were considered in various combinations with daily PM-2.5 standards of 50 and 65 microg/m3. Attainment of a standard or set of standards was simulated by a proportional rollback of "as is" daily PM concentrations to daily PM concentrations that would just meet the standard(s). The predicted reductions in the incidence of health effects varied from zero, for those alternative standards already being met, to substantial reductions of over 88% of all PM-associated incidence (e.g., in mortality associated with long-term exposures in Los Angeles, under attainment of an annual standard of 12.5 microg/m3). Sensitivity analyses and integrated uncertainty analyses assessed the multiple-source uncertainty surrounding estimates of risk reduction.     

Air Pollution and Mortality: Quantification and Valuation of Years of Life Lost

To analyze the loss of life expectancy (LLE) due to air pollution and the associated social cost, a dynamic model was developed that took into account the decrease of risk after the termination of an exposure to pollution. A key parameter was the time constant for the decrease of risk, for which estimates from studies of smoking were used. A sensitivity analysis showed that the precise value of the time constant(s) was not critical for the resulting LLE. An interesting aspect of the model was that the relation between population total LLE and PM2.5 concentration was numerically almost indistinguishable from a straight line, even though the functional dependence was nonlinear. This essentially linear behavior implies that the detailed history of a change in concentration does not matter, except for the effects of discounting. This model was used to correct the data of the largest study of chronic mortality for variations in past exposure, performed by Pope et al. in 1995; the correction factor was shown to depend on assumptions about the relative toxicity of the components of PM2.5. In the European Union, an increment of 1 microg/m3 of PM2.5 for 1 year implies an average LLE of 0.22 days per person. With regard to the social cost of an air pollution pulse, it was found that for typical discount rates (3% to 8% real) the cost was reduced by a factor of about 0.4 to 0.6 relative to the case with zero discount rate, if the value of a life year was taken as given; if the value of a life year was calculated from the "value of statistical life" by assuming the latter as a series of discounted annual values, the cost varied by at most +/-20% relative to the case with zero discount rate. To assess the uncertainties, this study also examined how the LLE depended on the demographics (mortality and age pyramid) of a population, and how it would change if the relative risk varied with age, in the manner suggested by smoking studies. These points were found to have a relatively small effect (compared to the epidemiological uncertainties) on the calculated LLE.