C2C卖家的诚信行为模式及其动态性研究

现有电子商务的信用评价体系单一维度的特点使得评级体系难以准确衡量、比较店铺在各维度之间的差异及其变化。为了提高C2C电子商务信用评级体系的信息揭示作用,本文试图从多维度指标分析店铺的诚信行为模式及其动态性。本文对淘宝7大行业不同信用等级的卖家的诚信指标数据进行聚类分析表明,店铺在动态评分、信用等级、好评率上分别具有六类不同的静态组合特征,信用积分在解释店铺诚信状态上弱于动态评分和好评率指标。动态模式分析表明,店铺的好评率、动态评分指标及其与同业行业比值会呈现出三个不同的组合变化趋势。最后本文提出对现有的评价体系改进,以体现店铺之间在模式上的差异,从而真实展现卖家的诚信水平。     

论《海商法》中实际承运人的相关法律问题

实际承运人是海上货物运输实践中的重要当事方 ,由于《海商法》对实际承运人的法律界定很不明晰 ,造成了实践中的混乱。本文以实际承运人的概念阐述为基础 ,对多种情况下实际承运人识别问题进行了划分 ,并探讨了实际承运人责任认定的相关法律问题。     

The governance of social enterprises: Mission drift and accountability challenges in hybrid organizations

We examine the challenges of governance facing organizations that pursue a social mission through the use of market mechanisms. These hybrid organizations, often referred to as social enterprises, combine aspects of both charity and business at their core. In this paper we distinguish between two ideal types of such hybrids, differentiated and integrated, and we conceptualize two key challenges of governance they face: accountability for dual performance objectives and accountability to multiple principal stakeholders. We revisit the potential and limitations of recently introduced legal forms to address these challenges. We then theorize about the importance of organizational governance and the role of governing boards in particular, in prioritizing and aligning potentially conflicting objectives and interests in order to avoid mission drift and to maintain organizational hybridity in social enterprises. Finally, we discuss future research directions and the implications of this work for rethinking traditional categories of organizations, namely business and charity.     

Central tendency bias in belief elicitation

We conduct an experiment in which subjects participate in a first-price auction against an automaton that bids randomly in a given range. The subjects first place a bid in the auction. They are then given an incentivized elicitation of their beliefs of the opponent’s bid. Despite having been told that the bid of the opponent is drawn from a uniform distribution, we find that a majority of subjects report beliefs that have a peak in the interior of the range. This result is robust across seven different experimental treatments. While not expected at the outset, these single-peaked beliefs have precedence in the experimental psychology judgments literature. Our results suggest that an elicitation of probability beliefs can result in responses that are more concentrated than the objectively known or induced truth. We provide indicative evidence that such individual belief reports can be rationalized by well-defined subjective beliefs that differ from the objective truth. Our findings offer an explanation for the conservatism and overprecision biases in Bayesian updating. Finally, our findings suggest that probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events might have less variance than the actual events.     

How much is too much: Does the size of income support transfers affect labor supply?

Cash transfer programs pursue mainly protective objectives, but can also impact rural livelihoods by inducing investments in productive activities and changing household labor allocation. We adopt a continuous treatment approach to quantify how households’ labor supply responds to transfer size. We find a shift from paid labor to own farm labor and find that the transfer size is well within a level that would have disincentive effects on time spent on own farm activities. The switch from paid to own farm labor occurs at lower levels of transfers for labor-constrained households, and at higher levels for non-labor constrained households.     

Identifying Systemically Important Banks: A temporal approach for macroprudential policies

Contrary to the general belief, systemic risk does not only regard the risk posed by balance sheet relationships and interdependencies among institutions. It also features a temporal dimension related to the inappropriate responses of financial market participants to changes in risk over time. This paper proposes a method to simultaneously address the cross-sectional and the time dimension in which systemic risk materializes. The method is based on the TOPHITS algorithm. It provides three scores, namely borrowing, lending and time scores: the first two represent the systemic importance of the borrowing and the lending activity associated with each financial institution,while the third represents an empirical Early Warning Signal of the financial crisis. Our findings reveal that the identification of the time score as an indicator for an incoming market distress could be relevant to design macro prudential policies.     

Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

Saving behaviour and earnings uncertainty: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

For the first time, this paper uses a panel data set, the British Household Panel Survey, to analyse saving behaviour in Britain. One objective is to test the precautionary saving hypothesis, according to which households save to self-insure against uncertainty. Our results show that in accordance with this hypothesis, various measures of uncertainty based on earnings variability have a statistically significant effect on households' saving decisions. Moreover, in accordance with the life cycle model, households save more if they expect their financial situation to deteriorate. Received: 15 June 1999/Accepted: 4 January 2001     

Exponentially weighted moving average charts for correlated multivariate Poisson processes

In this article, we study exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control schemes to monitor the multivariate Poisson distribution with a general covariance structure, so that the practitioner can simultaneously monitor multiple correlated attribute processes more effectively. The statistical performance of the charts is assessed in terms of the run length properties and compared against other mainstream attribute control schemes. The application of the proposed methods to real-life and simulated datasets is demonstrated.