天主教会与西欧中世纪经济的复兴

因罗马帝国后期的内乱、日耳曼人大迁徙带来的长期战乱,致使西欧进入中世纪出现了土地荒芜、技术落后、经济发展长期停滞的局面,是天主教会组织带头进行农业垦殖、传播生产技术、建设公共设施,促进了经济的复兴。     

A variable-neighbourhood search algorithm for finding optimal run orders in the presence of serial correlation

The responses obtained from response surface designs that are run sequentially often exhibit serial correlation or time trends. The order in which the runs of the design are performed then has an impact on the precision of the parameter estimators. This article proposes the use of a variable-neighbourhood search algorithm to compute run orders that guarantee a precise estimation of the effects of the experimental factors. The importance of using good run orders is demonstrated by seeking D-optimal run orders for a central composite design in the presence of an AR(1) autocorrelation pattern.     

On distribution-weighted partial least squares with diverging number of highly correlated predictors

Summary.  Because highly correlated data arise from many scientific fields, we investigate parameter estimation in a semiparametric regression model with diverging number of predictors that are highly correlated. For this, we first develop a distribution-weighted least squares estimator that can recover directions in the central subspace, then use the distribution-weighted least squares estimator as a seed vector and project it onto a Krylov space by partial least squares to avoid computing the inverse of the covariance of predictors. Thus, distrbution-weighted partial least squares can handle the cases with high dimensional and highly correlated predictors. Furthermore, we also suggest an iterative algorithm for obtaining a better initial value before implementing partial least squares. For theoretical investigation, we obtain strong consistency and asymptotic normality when the dimension p of predictors is of convergence rate O { n ^1/2/ log ( n )} and o ( n ^1/3) respectively where n is the sample size. When there are no other constraints on the covariance of predictors, the rates n ^1/2 and n ^1/3 are optimal. We also propose a Bayesian information criterion type of criterion to estimate the dimension of the Krylov space in the partial least squares procedure. Illustrative examples with a real data set and comprehensive simulations demonstrate that the method is robust to non-ellipticity and works well even in 'small n –large p ' problems.     

Large,But Adaptable? A Successful Population Policy and Its Long Term Effects

A restrictive population policy led to almost doubling the number of newborns from one year to another in Romania in the 1960s. Twenty years later, this large generation (of women) enters a marriage market with few eligible older mates, in a society where marriage is a must. In this article, I analyze this social experiment within the broader frame of the marriage squeeze/two sex models. Using various data from censuses and surveys, I argue that the marriage market is flexible even when is confronted with disproportionately large cohorts. If the social pressure toward marriage is strong, the marriage rates do not necessarily fall, but the mating age patterns change.

12世纪前中央亚细亚草原的鞑靼人及其国家

波斯史学家拉施特丁的《史集》为研究蒙古人统治之前中央亚细亚草原上鞑靼人的历史提供了重要信息。拉施特丁认为,蒙古人统治之前中央亚细亚草原地区的居民以突厥部落为主,其组织"结构"为6个鞑靼人国家。本文以鄂尔浑和叶尼塞河流域突厥如尼文碑铭记载为依据,参照汉文史籍、敦煌和波斯手稿等的记载,探讨了9—12世纪在甘肃和新疆的广阔地域内活动的鞑靼人及其政权、9世纪上额尔齐斯河流域基马克人及其部落联盟的形成与鞑靼人之间的关系。     

Capital Structure of Nongovernmental Development Organizations

In the first international study of this kind, we analyze the capital structure of 364 nongovernmental development organizations (NGDOs) from three different countries: Belgium, Spain, and the United Kingdom. We observe lower debt ratio values in the United Kingdom, and significant differences between countries were found by testing an econometric model with the five classical determinants of leverage, considering total debt and both long‐ and short‐term debt. We find support for the pecking order theory, and we broadly discuss some possible reasons for the obtained differences.     

Moroccan women in Madrid: between change and continuity

This article focuses on individual migration and acculturation processes experienced by Moroccan women in the area of Madrid, based on qualitative research conducted in the Spanish capital in 2008. The results show that Moroccan women restructure their daily practices through complex acculturation processes, orienting them towards both the society of origin and that of arrival. They experience a constant struggle in getting to know the traditions of Spanish society, reorienting their former traditions and inventing new solutions. Moroccan women develop new ways of adapting themselves to their situation in Madrid. This acculturation process bridges the continuity with their culture of origin and reflects changes related to the new context. The studied women move in a transnational space with rigid borders, which is intersected by several social categories such as their education, ethnicity and gender, influencing their relative position within this space.     

Ethnic ingroup friendships in schools: Testing the by-product hypothesis in England,Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden

This study set out to examine to what extent ethnic ingroup friendship in secondary school classes are a by-product of cultural and socioeconomic ingroup friendship. Based on homophily theory, we expected similar opinions, leisure activities, religion, risk behaviour and socioeconomic factors to (partly) explain ethnic ingroup preferences. Multilevel p₂ models on 13,272 pupils in 625 secondary school classes in England, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden showed that adolescents tend to have friends similar in ethnicity, cultural and socioeconomic characteristics. We find no evidence, however, that ethnic homophily is explained by cultural and socioeconomic homophily.     

Religion and the environmental opinion in 22 countries: a comparative study

The objective is to test if religiosity affects environmental opinion in Europe. Using data from European Social Survey (ESS) 2002/2003, the study answers three questions. At the societal level: Is public opinion about the environment different in political systems with different Christian traditions? Is environmental concern less or higher in the public opinion depending on the degree of secularization in the political systems? At the individual level: Is the environmental opinion of the individual affected by the personal confession of faith, religious involvement, and the dominant religious context? At the societal level, the findings show stronger concern for the environment in Catholic and Eastern Orthodox countries than in Protestant countries. The tendency also shows a weakened concern for the environment in countries with a rather secular population. At the individual level, there are significant positive effects on environmental care from Catholic culture, negative effect from Protestant culture, and no effect from religious involvement.     

中部六省省会城市土地集约利用评价及时空比较研究

利用文献资料法、AHP法、综合评价法、理论分析与实证分析相结合对中部六省省会城市2001年和2007年土地集约度进行评价,通过时空比较分析提出相关建议。研究结果表明：中央提出中部崛起战略后,中部六省省会城市土地集约利用水平有明显提高,但地区水平差异慢慢拉大。建议中部城市在土地集约利用过程中应积极发挥＂后进优势＂,尽量避免＂先进劣势＂。