后现代语境下电子游戏的历史消费观审视

电子游戏对历史题材的采用是一个意味深长的现象。解读这一现象,人们可以更真切地把握到电子游戏的后现代特征,它的消费意识形态隐性控制和历史精神改写。历史的碎片在电子游戏中已然转化为消费的对象,对人类精神传承而言是一场根本变革。     

Consistent Estimation of the Structural Distribution Function

Motivated by problems in linguistics we consider a multinomial random vector for which the number of cells N is not much smaller than the sum of the cell frequencies, i.e. the sample size n . The distribution function of the uniform distribution on the set of all cell probabilities multiplied by N is called the structural distribution function of the cell probabilities. Conditions are given that guarantee that the structural distribution function can be estimated consistently as n increases indefinitely although n / N does not. The natural estimator is inconsistent and we prove consistency of essentially two alternative estimators.     

On the Olympic Games: An Afterword

The article discusses some of the issues that sociologists research with respect to the Olympic Games.     

基于应对重大突发事件的人口信息化管理分析

根据我国现行人口信息化管理的现状 ,结合应对重大突发事件的实际需要 ,系统分析了人口基础信息建设管理与应对重大突发事件关联的信息平台间的层次关系 ,在基于对流动人口信息化管理现行模式的基础之上 ,提出了完善人口信息化管理及建设模型     

新任教师反思能力的培养策略——基于个人生活史视角

教师反思能力主要是指教师个体对自身教育观念及行为的认知、监控、调节能力,是教师从事教育教学工作,提升课堂教学有效性、教育研究能力以及彰显教师主体性的重要能力之一,在新任教师专业成长初期应引起足够的重视。教师生活史是关于教师个体教育生活的历史,具有生成性、广泛性、体验性和缄默性。教师反思能力的形成与教师个人生活史联系紧密,其生活中的学习经历、"重要他人"、关键事件以及实践经验等都作为一种隐性知识影响新任教师反思能力的形成。为了提升新任教师的反思能力、促进其专业发展,新任教师应高度关注个人生活史,关注日常生活世界,以批判的视角审视生活史,走出"熟知陷阱";"回望关键,抓住关键,注重关键事件中的核心要素;重视他人引导,向同事请教,吸取优秀教师特别是教学名师的成长经验;勤于学习,在理论学习与教学实践中养成反思的习惯,不断提升反思能力,增强教学的有效性。     

Estimation of group means in generalized linear mixed models

In this study, we investigate the concept of the mean response for a treatment group mean as well as its estimation and prediction for generalized linear models with a subject‐wise random effect. Generalized linear models are commonly used to analyze categorical data. The model‐based mean for a treatment group usually estimates the response at the mean covariate. However, the mean response for the treatment group for studied population is at least equally important in the context of clinical trials. New methods were proposed to estimate such a mean response in generalized linear models; however, this has only been done when there are no random effects in the model. We suggest that, in a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), there are at least two possible definitions of a treatment group mean response that can serve as estimation/prediction targets. The estimation of these treatment group means is important for healthcare professionals to be able to understand the absolute benefit vs risk. For both of these treatment group means, we propose a new set of methods that suggests how to estimate/predict both of them in a GLMMs with a univariate subject‐wise random effect. Our methods also suggest an easy way of constructing corresponding confidence and prediction intervals for both possible treatment group means. Simulations show that proposed confidence and prediction intervals provide correct empirical coverage probability under most circumstances. Proposed methods have also been applied to analyze hypoglycemia data from diabetes clinical trials.     

The attributable estimand: A new approach to account for intercurrent events

The term “intercurrent events” has recently been used to describe events in clinical trials that may complicate the definition and calculation of the treatment effect estimand. This paper focuses on the use of an attributable estimand to address intercurrent events. Those events that are considered to be adversely related to randomized treatment (eg, discontinuation due to adverse events or lack of efficacy) are considered attributable and handled with a composite estimand strategy, while a hypothetical estimand strategy is used for intercurrent events not considered to be related to randomized treatment (eg, unrelated adverse events). We explore several options for how to implement this approach and compare them to hypothetical “efficacy” and treatment policy estimand strategies through a series of simulation studies whose design is inspired by recent trials in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and we illustrate through an analysis of a recently completed COPD trial.     

The Timing of Leaving the Parental Home and Its Linkages to Other Life Course Events in Turkey

Abstract

This study employs the data of the 2003 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey to study the timing of leaving the parental home and the links between home leaving and other life course events (entry into labour force, family formation, and first birth) for three groups of home-leavers: early, on-time, and late. Results of the study suggest that the majority of the home-leavers are late home-leavers in Turkey. This pattern of parental home leaving observed in Turkey resembles the pattern which can found today in Mediterranean and Southern European countries. The median age at home leaving is found to be 24.4 years. In terms of gender differentials, the study implies that the timing of leaving the parental home for males (27.2 years) markedly differs from the timing of leaving the parental home for females (21.6 years). Results also imply the sequence of life-course events for males in Turkey: entry into labour force, marriage, the birth of first child, and home leaving. On the other hand, timing of home leaving for females was found to be in line with the timing of family formation. However, the home leaving experiencing by females does not mean a real home leaving in the context of Turkey; it is just a shifting from their own parental home to their husbands' parental home.     

网络危机公关探析

网络危机公关是指对由网络虚拟世界里形成的网络危机事件所引发的、对现实世界产生实际影响的公关危机(网络公关危机)的预防、识别和处理。通过对网络危机事件、网络公关危机和网络危机公关的分析,探讨了网络公关危机管理之道。