重大事件政府新闻发布传播策略分析——以广州亚运会为例

政府在重大事件中的新闻发布活动是树立政府形象的良好机会。2010年广州亚运会作为亚洲体坛盛会，是一次展示国家形象和广州城市形象的绝佳时机，其新闻发布策略与传播效果尤其值得关注。文章在系统阐述重大事件新闻发布传播策略的基础上，针对广州亚运会裳间广东省及广州市政府新闻发布运行机制与传播策略进行分析，总结出包括制度规范、主题制定、模拟演练，现场应对、舆情监测等传播策略，并对其效果进行分析。     

Concretizing the Concept of Social Stress

The concept of social stress, as adapted from Selye’s work on biology, is insufficient to explain psychological functioning. To be useful, social stress must include enduring social practices characteristic of particular social systems that violate socially generated as well as biological needs. Some of these stressful events are gender role, poverty, and societal practices such as extreme competition, individualism, and materialism.     

Marginal Means/Rates Models for Multiple Type Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent events are frequently observed in biomedical studies, and often more than one type of event is of interest. Follow-up time may be censored due to loss to follow-up or administrative censoring. We propose a class of semi-parametric marginal means/rates models, with a general relative risk form, for assessing the effect of covariates on the censored event processes of interest. We formulate estimating equations for the model parameters, and examine asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators. Finite sample properties of the regression coefficients are examined through simulations. The proposed methods are applied to a retrospective cohort study of risk factors for preschool asthma.     

Comparisons of Test Statistics Arising from Marginal Analyses of Multivariate Survival Data

We investigate the properties of several statistical tests for comparing treatment groups with respect to multivariate survival data, based on the marginal analysis approach introduced by Wei, Lin and Weissfeld [Regression Analysis of multivariate incomplete failure time data by modelling marginal distributians, JASA vol. 84 pp. 1065–1073]. We consider two types of directional tests, based on a constrained maximization and on linear combinations of the unconstrained maximizer of the working likelihood function, and the omnibus test arising from the same working likelihood. The directional tests are members of a larger class of tests, from which an asymptotically optimal test can be found. We compare the asymptotic powers of the tests under general contiguous alternatives for a variety of settings, and also consider the choice of the number of survival times to include in the multivariate outcome. We illustrate the results with simulations and with the results from a clinical trial examining recurring opportunistic infections in persons with HIV.     

黎族历史上刻木记事习俗浅析

本文通过对现存的海南岛五指山区黎族“刻木记事”实物和有关民族学文献资料的分析 ,比较全面地探讨了黎族社会中现在业已消失了的“刻木记事”习俗及其文化内涵。     

A joint modelling approach for clustered recurrent events and death events

In dental implant research studies, events such as implant complications including pain or infection may be observed recurrently before failure events, i.e. the death of implants. It is natural to assume that recurrent events and failure events are correlated to each other, since they happen on the same implant (subject) and complication times have strong effects on the implant survival time. On the other hand, each patient may have more than one implant. Therefore these recurrent events or failure events are clustered since implant complication times or failure times within the same patient (cluster) are likely to be correlated. The overall implant survival times and recurrent complication times are both interesting to us. In this paper, a joint modelling approach is proposed for modelling complication events and dental implant survival times simultaneously. The proposed method uses a frailty process to model the correlation within cluster and the correlation within subjects. We use Bayesian methods to obtain estimates of the parameters. Performance of the joint models are shown via simulation studies and data analysis.     

Deviations From Desired Age at Marriage: Mental Health Differences Across Marital Status

Although several factors condition mental health differences between married and never‐married adults, given recent increases in marriage delay and permanent singlehood, one modifying factor—deviation from desired age at marriage—has yet to be examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (N = 7,277), the author tested whether deviation from desired age at marriage shapes the mental health of married and never‐married adults as well as mental health differences between them. The results showed that most respondents failed to meet their initial preference for age at marriage. Marrying both earlier and later than desired (compared to on time) resulted in poorer mental health and fewer benefits compared to never marrying. For the never‐married, mental health was best, and differences compared to the married were nonsignificant, for those nearest their desired age at marriage. As timing deviations increased, however, a mental health deficit among the never‐married emerged.     

突发公共事件应对中的行政权威及其尺度

我国继SARS、禽流感之后又遭受了较为严重的狂犬病疫情袭击。在这些事件的应对中,政府权力行使所暴露的缺陷依然如故,引起人们的广泛关注。笔者分析了突发公共事件应对中行政权力行使的必要性,认为在应对突发公共事件中,必须树立民主与权威相结合的指导原则;同时,必须根据权力法定、权益保护、公共评价、比例原则和制度体系这五个因素来综合制定评判标准以明确行政权力行使的界限。     

Additive Transformation Models for Recurrent Events

In this article, we propose a class of additive transformation models for recurrent event data, which includes the additive rates model as a special case. The new models offer great flexibility in formulating the effects of covariates on the mean function of recurrent events. Estimating equation approaches are developed for the model parameters, and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. In addition, a model checking procedure is presented to assess the adequacy of the model. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimators is examined through simulation studies, and an application to a bladder cancer study is presented.     

Social media processes in disasters: Implications of emergent technology use

This article seeks to extend social science scholarship on social media technology use during disruptive events. Though social media's role in times of crisis has been previously studied, much of this work tends to focus on first-responders and relief organizations. However, social media use during disasters tends to be decentralized and this organizational structure can promote different types of messages to top-down information systems. Using 142,786 geo-tagged tweets collected before and after Hurricane Sandy's US landfall as a case study, this article seeks to explore shifts in social media behavior during disruptive events and highlights that though Sandy disrupted routine life within Twitter, users responded to the disaster by employing humor, sharing photos, and checking into locations. We conclude that social media use during disruptive events is complex and understanding these nuanced behaviors is important across the social sciences.