我国政府应对网络群体事件的问题及对策研究

随着互联网的普及和社会矛盾的日益激化,网络群体事件发生的频率逐年递增,威胁着当前社会的稳定,对社会的管理及发展也造成不良影响。如何趋利避害,引导网络群体事件向有利方向发展,控制其不利影响,已经成为政府需要着力解决的重点问题。目前我国政府应对网络群体事件还存在着多种问题,如危机意识淡薄、法制不健全、系统的网络群体事件应对机制尚未建立等。培养政府官员危机意识、健全法制、构建系统的网络群体事件应对体系将是我国政府防范和化解网络群体事件的工作重心。     

北京高校甲组田径优势运动项目分析

通过对北京市入选综合排名前8名学校的优势项目进行统计分析,可以得出以下结论:第一集团学校的优势项目群配置合理,综合排名前四名学校的优势项目群呈现不同程度的重叠现象;各高校优势项目群的消长率增长与降低总体呈交替性波动,整体呈两级分化趋势;速度项目群将会领先于其他项群而得到优先发展.     

Clustering of seasonal events: A simulation study using circular methods

ABSTRACT

In a changing climate, changes in timing of seasonal events such as floods and flowering should be assessed using circular methods. Six different methods for clustering on a circle and one linear method are compared across different locations, spreads, and sample sizes. Best results are obtained when clusters are well separated and the number of observations in each cluster is approximately equal. Simulations of flood-like distributions are used to assess and explore clustering methods. Generally, k-means provides results that are close to the expected results, some other methods perform well under specific conditions, but no single method is exemplary.     

A Recursive Formula for the Probability of Occurrence of at Least m out of N Events

A recursive same-sign relation is derived that reduces the probability of occurrence of at least m out of N independent events to the probability of occurrence of at least m out of N ? 1 of these N events.     

Modelling small and medium enterprise loan defaults as rare events: the generalized extreme value regression model

A pivotal characteristic of credit defaults that is ignored by most credit scoring models is the rarity of the event. The most widely used model to estimate the probability of default is the logistic regression model. Since the dependent variable represents a rare event, the logistic regression model shows relevant drawbacks, for example, underestimation of the default probability, which could be very risky for banks. In order to overcome these drawbacks, we propose the generalized extreme value regression model. In particular, in a generalized linear model (GLM) with the binary-dependent variable we suggest the quantile function of the GEV distribution as link function, so our attention is focused on the tail of the response curve for values close to one. The estimation procedure used is the maximum-likelihood method. This model accommodates skewness and it presents a generalisation of GLMs with complementary log–log link function. We analyse its performance by simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed model to empirical data on Italian small and medium enterprises.     

Temporal blindspots in Occupy Philadelphia

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the disjunctive temporalities of Occupy Philadelphia’s political constituencies. Drawing on both an ethnographic participant observation study of the Occupy Philadelphia movement and Philadelphia’s neoanarchist political communities, and on recent social scientific theorization of events, the paper argues that contradictory ideas about temporal timescales, momentum, duration, sequences, and rhythms of tactical and strategic action problematized interaction and coordination among movement participants. These points of coordinative disjuncture can be traced back to differences in participants’ ideas about prefigurative politics and strategic temporalities. Limning the temporal expectations and experiences of social movement participants, this paper contributes to the examination of both linkages and disjunctures between eventful temporalities experienced in moments of protest and in social movements with diverse timescales.     

Now and again: Eventful experience as a resource in senior activism

ABSTRACT

Shared memories shape relations among social movement participants and their organizations. However, scholars often ignore how experience operates as a means of solidifying attachment in group contexts. In contrast, I argue that activism depends on how participants publicly recall events. In this, I integrate a social memory perspective with the examination of activist movements. Through narrative, participants build engagement by presenting the self-in-history as a model for collective action. I refer to this as eventful experience, utilizing memorable moments as a resource for generating commitment. Movements depend upon members communicating the critical moments of their lives, embedding personal timelines in group culture. The linkage of personal experience and public events is a strategy by which individuals motivate collective action. Drawing on a thirty-month ethnography of a progressive senior citizen activist group in Chicago, I examine how members use an awareness of temporality to build a culture of action. Each movement group uses the past experiences of participants to build their culture – what Jasper refers to as taste in tactics, incorporating past successes, present plans, and imagined futures into a call for direct action.     

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well‐being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst ) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.     

Olympic Games in Japan and East Asia: Images and Legacies: An Introduction

This is the Introduction to the special issue entitled "The Olympic Games in Japan and East Asia: Images and Legacies.”     

Harmful care. To what extent is terminology from medicine and clinical psychology applicable to out‐of‐home care?

Research concerning outcomes for children who have been placed in out‐of‐home care has indicated that the care may have unwanted consequences. However, there has been no coherent terminology for differentiating between different types of such unwanted consequences. In this article therefore, we attempt to disentangle different aspects of potentially harmful care for looked after children, as well as to discuss potential pathways to more systematically approach and report adverse events for this group. In this endeavour, we turn to two adjacent disciplines, medicine and psychology, where these issues have received more interest. The applicability of the concepts used in these fields is discussed, and it is concluded that although they provide some help in categorizing different aspects of harmful care, the complexity of out‐of‐home care makes existing models difficult to adopt without adjustments. This has consequences for the possibility of evaluating care in research, as well as for monitoring adverse events in practice. Importantly, the causality will often be unknown. We therefore suggest that it is essential to shed more light on how decisions should be made about when to intervene or not in out‐of‐home care, despite limited information.