论电视新闻的变革对中国政治改革的启示——以《新闻联播》为例

为挽救"收视率"危机,<新闻联播>在人才选拔、尊重规律与评估体系三方面进行了深刻的变革.同时,中国政府近年来也面临着"信任度"降低的困境,为此政府进行了多次政治改革.由于政府提升"信任度"与<新闻联播>提高"收视率"存在着目标的一致性,因此,从组织行为学的视角,采用比较的研究方法,对政府所进行的政治改革与<新闻联播>的变革之间的关系进行了细致剖析,认为<新闻联播>在提高收视率的渐进过程中所采取的变革措施可以为中国政府提高"信任度"而进行的政治改革提供理论与实践的依据.     

含有协变量的复发事件变点模型的参数估计

针对复发事件数据协变量的重要作用,建立含有协变量的复发事件变点模型,考虑协变量作用于强度率函数的情形。对于此模型,使用最大似然方法得到变点及各参数估计,并得到了变点估计的相合性。最后对于同时存在待估参数和待估变点的似然函数,采用最速上升法进行了数据模拟。     

经济人的过程哲学诠释--社会存在本体论的理论范型

20世纪70年发展起来的社会存在本体论,其实质是关系实在论.人与人之间的首要关系是社会关系.经济关系是社会关系的集中表现.体现经济本质的事件本体论是人的社会存在的元哲学解释.这恰恰是怀特海过程哲学的核心.把社会存在本体论与过程哲学联系起来是使后者走向现代性的正确渠道.21世纪之初,由小科布领军的过程哲学研究正在把这一研究引向深入.     

Bayesian X̄ control limits for exponentially distributed measurements

This article deals with the construction of an X? control chart using the Bayesian perspective. We obtain new control limits for the X? chart for exponentially distributed data-generating processes through the sequential use of Bayes’ theorem and credible intervals. Construction of the control chart is illustrated using a simulated data example. The performance of the proposed, standard, tolerance interval, exponential cumulative sum (CUSUM) and exponential exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits are examined and compared via a Monte Carlo simulation study. The proposed Bayesian control limits are found to perform better than standard, tolerance interval, exponential EWMA and exponential CUSUM control limits for exponentially distributed processes.     

Monitoring exponential data using two-sided control charts with runs rules

In this article, new two-sided control charts with runs rules, suitable for the monitoring of exponential data, are proposed and studied. The proposed schemes are suitable to identify changes (upward or downward) in the mean of an exponential distribution. Also, they have the desired in-control performance as well as unbiased performance. Guidelines for the most effective scheme in practice are provided, along with comparisons with other competitive schemes. Finally, the practical application of the proposed schemes is also discussed.     

盛唐咏物诗新变特征试论

盛唐时期,物质生产高度发达,社会生活富庶安宁,诗歌高度繁荣发展。在这一社会背景下,咏物诗在创作上呈现出新变的艺术特征。诗人们在继承托物言志传统的同时,又发展了这种理论,使咏物诗在创作上呈现出向"即物达情"转变的新特点。     

为证据概念再定义

尽管诉讼法学和证据法学界对证据这个概念给出了不少定义,但实际上依然没有体现证据的本质特征。过去的事件在现实中会留下许多的痕迹,包括人类的记忆也是一种痕迹。通过收集过去事件遗留的痕迹,并对这些痕迹进行分析,可以复原过去的历史,达到查清案件事实的目的。因此,证据是诉讼主体提出并用来证明过去事件的痕迹和对痕迹的分析。     

运动事件的翻译:语义特征的保留与转换研究——以《红楼梦》诗词英译为例

基于Talmy 的运动事件框架和词汇化模式研究,以杨宪益、戴乃迭和霍克斯的《红楼梦》诗词的译文为例,以方式、结果、路径和物像等特征为着眼点,探讨运动事件翻译过程中的语义特征保留与转换。研究发现,译者采用了不同的原文解析方式,以动词为中心重组译文,突显不同的语义特征,从而使译文的运动事件特征呈现不同的保留度与转换度。     

Sample size calculation for recurrent events data in one‐arm studies

In some exceptional circumstances, as in very rare diseases, nonrandomized one‐arm trials are the sole source of evidence to demonstrate efficacy and safety of a new treatment. The design of such studies needs a sound methodological approach in order to provide reliable information, and the determination of the appropriate sample size still represents a critical step of this planning process. As, to our knowledge, no method exists for sample size calculation in one‐arm trials with a recurrent event endpoint, we propose here a closed sample size formula. It is derived assuming a mixed Poisson process, and it is based on the asymptotic distribution of the one‐sample robust nonparametric test recently developed for the analysis of recurrent events data. The validity of this formula in managing a situation with heterogeneity of event rates, both in time and between patients, and time‐varying treatment effect was demonstrated with exhaustive simulation studies. Moreover, although the method requires the specification of a process for events generation, it seems to be robust under erroneous definition of this process, provided that the number of events at the end of the study is similar to the one assumed in the planning phase. The motivating clinical context is represented by a nonrandomized one‐arm study on gene therapy in a very rare immunodeficiency in children (ADA‐SCID), where a major endpoint is the recurrence of severe infections. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short- and long-term stability in organizational networks: Temporal structures of project teams

Network research focuses on patterns of stable relationships, where stability represents the unfolding of social processes over long time frames. We argue that social interactions exhibit important regularities in different time frames (short and long term), reflecting distinct social processes. We illustrate the value of this distinction through a comparative case study of technology-mediated communication, within two project teams in a digital marketing agency. We examine how the embedding of interpersonal interactions in processes of reciprocity and closure over different time horizons enables the emergence of cohesion in the face of constant compositional changes. We propose that the time frames in which stable patterns of interactions develop are the key to understanding the nature of the underlying social processes with short-term patterns of closure and reciprocity representing adaptation to change while longer term patterns indicate cohesion. Our results are supportive of this argument and show that the two teams exhibit the same regularities in interactions but across different time horizons. We discuss the implication of our findings and argue that distinguishing between short- and long-term stability of social networks offers a novel and promising avenue for network research.