Lottery Games and Risky Technologies: Communications About Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events

There are strong structural similarities between risks from technological hazards and big-purse state lottery games. Risks from technological hazards are often described as low-probability, high-consequence negative events. State lotteries could be equally well characterized as low-probability, high-consequence positive events. Typical communications about state lotteries provide a virtual strategic textbook for opponents of risky technologies. The same techniques can be used to sell lottery tickets or "sell" opposition to risky technologies. Eight basic principles are enumerated.     

Communicating Low Risk Magnitudes: Incidence Rates Expressed as Frequency Versus Rates Expressed as Probability

The study investigated the effects of incidence rates stated as a probability (e.g., 0006) and incidence rate information expressed in terms of frequency (e.g., 600 in 1,000,000) on risk-avoidant behavior. Subjects were informed about the risks associated with an old and a new, improved medication. They were asked how much they were willing to pay for the safer medicine. Risk information was given either in a frequency or a probability format. The second factor manipulated was the level of risk, either high or low. As expected, analysis of variance yielded a significant interaction. Subjects confronted with high risk in the frequency format were willing to pay the highest prices for the improved medication. The choice between frequency or probability format can be made according to the goal of the communication of risk.     

Finite time ruin probability and structural density properties in the presence of dependence in insurance risk model

In the present paper, we consider the classical compound Poisson risk model with dependence between claim sizes and claim inter-arrival time. We attempt to analyze the approximation of finite time ruin probability. The finite time ruin probabilities are plotted for fixed threshold value associated to the claim inter-arrival time and also for fixed dependence parameter in Nelsen (2006) copula separately. Additionally, a general form for joint density of the interclaim times and claim sizes is considered. With respect to the classical Gerber-Shiu's (1998) function, first some structural density properties of dependent collective risk model is obtained. Then the ladder height probability density function of claim sizes is computed and the dependency structure investigated for Erlang interclaim time. As the application, some dependent models of the interclaim times and claim sizes are studied.     

GSH Dependence Modeling with an Application to Risk Management

The generalized secant hyperbolic distribution (GSH) can be used to represent financial data with heavy tails as an alternative to the Student-t, because it guarantees the existence of all moments, also with a high kurtosis value. In order to obtain a multivariate extension of the GSH distribution, in this article we present two approaches to model the dependence, the copula approach and independent component analysis. Since the methodologies considered allow to simulate the GSH dependence, we show also the empirical results obtained in the estimation of risk of a financial portfolio by the Monte Carlo method.     

Identification of Salmonella high risk pig-herds in Belgium by using semiparametric quantile regression

Summary.  Consumption of pork that is contaminated with Salmonella is an important source of human salmonellosis world wide. To control and prevent salmonellosis, Belgian pig-herds with high Salmonella infection burden are encouraged to take part in a control programme supporting the implementation of control measures. The Belgian government decided that only the 10% of pig-herds with the highest Salmonella infection burden (denoted high risk herds) can participate. To identify these herds, serological data reported as sample-to-positive ratios (SP-ratios) are collected. However, SP-ratios have an extremely skewed distribution and are heavily subject to confounding seasonal and animal age effects. Therefore, we propose to identify the 10% high risk herds by using semiparametric quantile regression with P -splines. In particular, quantile curves of animal SP-ratios are estimated as a function of sampling time and animal age. Then, pigs are classified into low and high risk animals with high risk animals having an SP-ratio that is larger than the corresponding estimated upper quantile. Finally, for each herd, the number of high risk animals is calculated as well as the beta–binomial p -value reflecting the hypothesis that the Salmonella infection burden is higher in that herd compared with the other herds. The 10% pig-herds with the lowest p -values are then identified as high risk herds. In addition, since high risk herds are supported to implement control measures, a risk factor analysis is conducted by using binomial generalized linear mixed models to investigate factors that are associated with decreased or increased Salmonella infection burden. Finally, since the choice of a specific upper quantile is to a certain extent arbitrary, a sensitivity analysis is conducted comparing different choices of upper quantiles.     

Testing for Full Insurance Using Exogenous Information

We strongly reject the full-insurance hypothesis, using testing variables that are not decision variables for the households under investigation. We find that households are not insured against changes in the unemployment rate associated with the household head's occupational category. Using this exogenous information, we also investigate the appropriateness of exogeneity assumptions on idiosyncratic variables that have been used as testing variables in the full-insurance literature. It is shown that several exogeneity assumptions made in the existing literature are potentially problematic.     

Comments on estimators based on error in the predicted distribution function

In estimation of percentiles in the exponential distribution, the distribution function evaluated at the estimated percentile is often evaluated for purposes of warranty considerations. Optimal estimators are discussed and compared on their error in the predicted distribution function. Inconsistency is shown to exist between measures of closeness and measures of risk in the predicted distribution function. An optimal estimator based on absolute loss in the predicted distribution function is obtained and shown to be superior in measures of closeness to the optimal estimator, which minimizes squared error loss in the predicted distribution function.     

农村劳动力流动如何影响农户宅基地退出行为?

使用四川泸县和宁夏平罗县803户农户的微观调研数据,实证探究了农村劳动力流动对农户宅基地退出行为的影响及其内在作用机制。结果表明:农村劳动力流动会促进农户退出宅基地,且劳动力流动对农户宅基地退出行为的正向影响随流动距离的增加而增大。进一步研究发现,农村劳动力流动显著增加了农户家庭收入,但农户家庭收入在劳动力流动影响农户宅基地退出行为中承担的中介作用表现为“遮掩效应”。从农村劳动力流动面临的风险寻求解释机制,结果表明,来自市场、制度及社会等层面的风险均对农户宅基地退出行为产生显著抑制作用,且从社会网络异质性角度看,这些风险对低社会网络农户宅基地退出行为的抑制作用更大。因此,建议积极引导达到城市化要求的高收入群体走出“半城市化”,从市场、制度和社会三个维度破解农户宅基地退出障碍,帮助农户进一步拓展社会网络来弥补城乡分割的社会结构漏洞。     

数据挖掘技术在商业银行中的应用

数据挖掘能够有效分析商业银行数据库中的信息,将其转化为知识为银行的经验决策服务。本文在介绍数据挖掘技术及其主要任务的基础上,总结了数据挖掘在商业银行业务中的主要应用领域为客户关系管理、风险管理和金融欺诈监测,并具体介绍了数据挖掘技术在上述几个领域内的应用。     

Market reactions to acquisition announcements: The importance of signaling ‘why’ and ‘where’

Acquisitions are risky events but not all acquisitions involve the same levels of risk. We suggest that the announced acquisition motive – the ‘why’ of the acquisition – is an important risk signal. We categorize acquisition motives and distinguish between acquisitions with ‘pure explore’ and ‘pure exploit’ motives. Recognizing that most acquisitions have multiple motives, we identify acquisitions with ‘ambidextrous’ motives – that is different combinations of explorative and exploitative motives – too. Then, building on recent contributions to signaling theory, we argue that the ‘why’ will matter more, if the ‘where’ pertains to a high-risk setting. We measure this using target-to-acquirer industry relatedness. We find that the market reacts more positively to pure acquisitions, aimed at exploration or exploitation, compared to ambidextrous acquisitions. We show that the market reacts more positively to ambidextrous acquisitions orientated towards exploitation than ambidextrous acquisitions orientated toward exploration. Finally, we find that relatedness moderates this relationship, in that the market is more willing to tolerate exploration in a related industry. Our core contribution is to the literatures on acquisition motives and ambidexterity. We provide new insights into the incidence of specific motives, the ways in which they are mixed, and the market's reaction to their announcement. In addition, we contribute to the emerging literature that takes on behavioral perspective of market reactions by showing that the ‘why’ and ‘where’ of an acquisition matter.